Final · 4 setsSat, Aug 29, 2026 · Neutral site

Northwestern St. def. Grambling 3–1

Northwestern St. beat Grambling 3-1 (25-15, 25-19, 22-25, 26-24) on Sat, Aug 29, 2026 at a neutral site. Northwestern St.'s Amber Craig and Elsie Sanchez led with 15 kills each, and Emmarie McFarland added 22 digs.

Data through · final Aug 29

Set1234Sets
GRAMB151925241
NW ST252522263

Win probability

Northwestern St. above 50 · Grambling below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+12.0% NW STrally 181 · set 4

Biggest swing: 12.0% to Northwestern St. — set 4, GRAMB 24-26 NW ST. Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad). NW ST win probability 88% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

GRAMB 43.6%56.4% NW ST

Grambling wins

3-0
10.0%
3-1
16.1%
3-2
17.5%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0
15.4%
3-1
21.4%
3-2
19.6%
GRAMB break %
43.0% vs this opp
NW ST break %
44.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Elsie SanchezKill+12.0%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 24-26 NW ST · NW ST 88% → 100%

  2. 02
    Olivia NziokiBlock+9.5%

    Lyric Jordan stuffed by Olivia Nzioki

    Set 4 · GRAMB 23-24 NW ST · NW ST 78% → 88%

  3. 03
    Bailey HollisKill+9.5%

    Kill by Bailey Hollis (set by Asialin Powell)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 24-24 NW ST · GRAMB 12% → 22%

  4. 04
    Elsie SanchezKill+9.5%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 24-25 NW ST · NW ST 78% → 88%

  5. 05
    Elsie SanchezAttack error+9.3%

    Attack error by Elsie Sanchez

    Set 4 · GRAMB 23-23 NW ST · GRAMB 12% → 22%

  6. 06
    Elsie SanchezKill+7.2%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Anna Claire Hebert)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 20-21 NW ST · NW ST 76% → 84%

  7. 07
    Olivia NziokiKill+6.9%

    Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 20-22 NW ST · NW ST 84% → 90%

  8. 08
    Gillian WolfAttack error+6.6%

    Attack error by Gillian Wolf

    Set 4 · GRAMB 20-19 NW ST · GRAMB 22% → 29%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
413434.2650104020216
47215.333100100218
46316.188100200006
4002.0001300800000
1125-.200000000001
1013-.333000100000
44323.0430111310005
4002.0001711800001
37214.357001100218
3017-.1436102320001
22012.167000200002
20312-.250000101011
2000–100000000
1000–001000000
Team totals4021145.131394464734583
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412430.26700010414.516.5
415537.27000050010.515.5
410427.22211043010.511.5
49217.41210020212.511.5
43010.30047211300005
4000–000700000
415633.2731235010118
4004.000312400001
4011-1.000014600001
4004.0005022210000
Team totals6422163.2585871269474998

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Grambling vs Northwestern St.

Season series · Northwestern St. leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 GRAMB · NW ST 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 GRAMBNW ST 5

Set 2

19-25

Longest run 3 GRAMBNW ST 5

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 GRAMBNW ST 6

Set 4

24-26

Longest run 3 GRAMBNW ST 4

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = Grambling leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Grambling

SlotSideout %Break %
1
42%11/26
53%10/19
2
67%10/15
29%4/14
3
69%9/13
17%2/12
4
45%9/20
18%2/11
5
73%8/11
47%8/17
6
58%7/12
27%3/11
All
56%54/97
35%29/84

Northwestern St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
47%8/17
2
83%10/12
45%9/20
3
75%9/12
40%6/15
4
69%9/13
47%8/17
5
64%9/14
36%5/14
6
70%7/10
50%7/14
All
65%55/84
44%43/97

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

181 rallies

#GRAMB-NW STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1GRAMBNW ST×5KillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland+1.8
20-2NW STNW ST×5Attack errBailey Hollis+2.3
30-3NW STNW ST×5Bad setAlayna Howard+2.2
40-4NW STNW ST×5KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.1
50-5NW STNW ST×5KillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+1.9
61-5NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+1.3
72-5GRAMBGRAMBBad setJade Longlad+1.9
82-6GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Emmarie McFarland+1.7
92-7NW STNW STBlockedRihianna Brownblk Olivia Nzioki+1.9
103-7NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+1.3
113-8GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.5
124-8NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+1.3
134-9GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.5
145-9NW STGRAMBBlockedElsie Sanchezblk Lyric Jordan+1.3
155-10GRAMBNW STBlockedAmaris Marksblk Kenadii Winfrey, Amber Craig+1.5
165-11NW STNW STKillKenadii Winfrey+1.7
176-11NW STGRAMB×3KillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+1.0
187-11GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Gillian Wolf+1.7
198-11GRAMBGRAMB×3BlockedKenadii Winfreyblk Kenya Lucas+2.1
208-12GRAMBNW STBad setLyric Jordan+1.9
218-13NW STNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.0
229-13NW STGRAMB×3KillRihianna Brownset Reece Cook+1.3
2310-13GRAMBGRAMB×3Bad setJade Longlad+2.1
2411-13GRAMBGRAMB×3KillAvri Solik-Fifarekset Bailey Hollis+2.6
2511-14GRAMBNW ST×3KillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+2.3
2611-15NW STNW ST×3Attack errAvri Solik-Fifarek+2.6
2711-16NW STNW ST×3KillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+2.1
2812-16NW STGRAMBKillBailey Hollisset Alayna Howard+1.3
2912-17GRAMBNW ST×3Serve errGrambling+1.6
3012-18NW STNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.5
3112-19NW STNW ST×3Attack errRihianna Brown+1.0
3213-19NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+0.5
3313-20GRAMBNW STKillJade Longladset Elsie Sanchez+0.7
3413-21NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Emmarie McFarland+0.5
3514-21NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+0.2
3614-22GRAMBNW STBlockedKenya Lucasblk Elsie Sanchez+0.3
3715-22NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+0.1
3815-23GRAMBNW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.2
3915-24NW STNW ST×3AceNorthwestern St.+0.1
4015-25NW STNW ST×3KillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland·
Set 2
10-1NW STNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.2
20-2NW STNW STAttack errKenya Lucas+2.2
31-2NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+1.7
42-2GRAMBGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+2.3
52-3GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.8
63-3NW STGRAMBAttack errGillian Wolf+1.8
74-3GRAMBGRAMBAttack errOlivia Nzioki+2.4
84-4GRAMBNW STAttack errLyric Jordan+1.9
95-4NW STGRAMBKillAvri Solik-Fifarekset Reece Cook+1.9
105-5GRAMBNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.9
115-6NW STNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.5
125-7NW STNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.5
136-7NW STGRAMB×3Serve errNorthwestern St.+1.9
147-7GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errElsie Sanchez+2.6
158-7GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Emmarie McFarland+2.7
168-8GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.1
179-8NW STGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Alayna Howard+2.2
189-9GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.1
1910-9NW STGRAMBKillBailey Hollisset Alayna Howard+2.2
2011-9GRAMBGRAMBAttack errAmber Craig+2.9
2111-10GRAMBNW STAttack errLyric Jordan+2.1
2212-10NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+2.3
2312-11GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.2
2413-11NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+2.4
2513-12GRAMBNW STKillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+2.3
2613-13NW STNW STBlockedKenya Lucasblk Gillian Wolf, Olivia Nzioki+3.2
2714-13NW STGRAMBAttack errOlivia Nzioki+2.6
2814-14GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.5
2915-14NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+2.7
3015-15GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.7
3116-15NW STGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Alayna Howard+2.9
3216-16GRAMBNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.8
3316-17NW STNW ST×3BlockedLyric Jordanblk Kenadii Winfrey+3.8
3416-18NW STNW ST×3BlockedAngelique Penablk Kenadii Winfrey+3.7
3517-18NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.6
3617-19GRAMBNW ST×5KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.1
3717-20NW STNW ST×5AceNorthwestern St.+3.5
3817-21NW STNW ST×5KillKenadii Winfrey+2.7
3917-22NW STNW ST×5KillAmber Craigset Gillian Wolf+1.7
4017-23NW STNW ST×5Attack errAngelique Pena+0.9
4118-23NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+0.2
4218-24GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+0.5
4319-24NW STGRAMBKillAvri Solik-Fifarekset Angelique Pena+0.1
4419-25GRAMBNW STKillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+0.2
Set 3
11-0GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Gillian Wolf+1.5
22-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errGillian Wolf+1.5
33-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAmber Craig+1.5
43-1GRAMBNW STServe errGrambling+1.0
54-1NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+1.1
64-2GRAMBNW STKillGillian Wolfset Anna Claire Hebert+1.1
74-3NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.aced Avri Solik-Fifarek+1.5
85-3NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+1.2
95-4GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.2
105-5NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Kenadii Winfrey+1.6
116-5NW STGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Reece Cook+1.3
126-6GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.2
137-6NW STGRAMBKillBailey Hollisset Alayna Howard+1.3
148-6GRAMBGRAMBBlockedElsie Sanchezblk Bailey Hollis, Nile Johnson+1.7
158-7GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.2
169-7NW STGRAMBBad setElsie Sanchez+1.4
179-8GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.3
1810-8NW STGRAMB×3BlockedAmber Craigblk Lyric Jordan+1.4
1911-8GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+1.7
2012-8GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAmber Craig+1.6
2112-9GRAMBNW STServe errGrambling+1.1
2212-10NW STNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.6
2313-10NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+1.4
2413-11GRAMBNW STKillJade Longlad+1.3
2514-11NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+1.5
2615-11GRAMBGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Reece Cook+1.7
2715-12GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Elsie Sanchez+1.1
2816-12NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Hailey Botello+1.4
2916-13GRAMBNW ST×6KillJade Longlad+1.1
3016-14NW STNW ST×6Attack errAvri Solik-Fifarek+1.8
3116-15NW STNW ST×6Attack errNile Johnson+2.1
3216-16NW STNW ST×6AceNorthwestern St.aced Asialin Powell+2.3
3316-17NW STNW ST×6KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.4
3416-18NW STNW ST×6KillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.4
3517-18NW STGRAMB×4KillBailey Hollisset Asialin Powell+1.7
3618-18GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchez+2.6
3719-18GRAMBGRAMB×4KillBailey Hollisset Asialin Powell+2.9
3820-18GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchez+2.9
3920-19GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+1.9
4021-19NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.4
4121-20GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.0
4222-20NW STGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.7
4323-20GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAmber Craig+2.8
4424-20GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+1.7
4524-21GRAMBNW STBlockedAngelique Penablk Olivia Nzioki+0.4
4624-22NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.aced Asialin Powell+1.2
4725-22NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+2.1
Set 4
11-0NW STGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+2.4
22-0GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGramblingaced Gillian Wolf+3.1
33-0GRAMBGRAMB×3Bad setKenadii Winfrey+3.1
43-1GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.2
53-2NW STNW STAttack errAvri Solik-Fifarek+3.1
64-2NW STGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Reece Cook+2.5
74-3GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.4
85-3NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Reece Cook+2.6
95-4GRAMBNW STBlockedNile Johnsonblk Olivia Nzioki+2.5
105-5NW STNW STAttack errBailey Hollis+3.3
116-5NW STGRAMBBlockedHarper Cauleyblk Nile Johnson, Bailey Hollis+2.7
126-6GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.6
137-6NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+2.8
148-6GRAMBGRAMBAttack errKenadii Winfrey+3.6
158-7GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.6
168-8NW STNW STAceNorthwestern St.+3.6
179-8NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.9
189-9GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.9
1910-9NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+3.0
2010-10GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+3.0
2111-10NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+3.1
2211-11GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland+3.1
2311-12NW STNW STKillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+4.1
2412-12NW STGRAMBServe errNorthwestern St.+3.2
2513-12GRAMBGRAMBAttack errGillian Wolf+4.3
2613-13GRAMBNW STKillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+3.3
2714-13NW STGRAMBKillNile Johnsonset Alayna Howard+3.5
2814-14GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Anna Claire Hebert+3.5
2915-14NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+3.7
3015-15GRAMBNW STServe errGrambling+3.6
3116-15NW STGRAMBKillBailey Hollisset Asialin Powell+3.9
3216-16GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+3.8
3316-17NW STNW STKillGillian Wolfset Jade Longlad+5.2
3417-17NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+4.0
3517-18GRAMBNW STAttack errAsialin Powell+4.3
3618-18NW STGRAMBKillAvri Solik-Fifarekset Reece Cook+4.3
3718-19GRAMBNW STKillGillian Wolfset Emmarie McFarland+4.6
3819-19NW STGRAMBBad setJade Longlad+4.6
3920-19GRAMBGRAMBAttack errGillian Wolf+6.6
4020-20GRAMBNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+5.0
4120-21NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Anna Claire Hebert+7.2
4220-22NW STNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+6.9
4320-23NW STNW ST×4AceNorthwestern St.+5.4
4421-23NW STGRAMB×3KillNile Johnsonset Alayna Howard+2.5
4522-23GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+5.7
4623-23GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errElsie Sanchez+9.3
4723-24GRAMBNW STBlockedLyric Jordanblk Olivia Nzioki+9.5
4824-24NW STGRAMBKillBailey Hollisset Asialin Powell+9.5
4924-25GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+9.5
5024-26NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+12.0

Score shown after each rally, Grambling first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).