CollegeVolleyball
Final · 4 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026
1:3

Northwestern St. def. Grambling 31

(20-25, 25-20, 26-24, 29-27)
Set1234Sets
GRAMB252024271
NW ST202526293

RallyIQ model

Win probability

NW ST above 50 · GRAMB below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100NW STGRAMBBiggest swing +13.2% GRAMB · S3 24-23rally 196 · set 4

Biggest swing: 13.2% to Grambling — set 3, GRAMB 24-23 NW ST. Kill by Amaris Marks (set by Alayna Howard). NW ST win probability 62%49%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

GRAMB 33.8%66.2% NW ST

Grambling wins

3-0
6.8%
3-1
12.1%
3-2
15.0%

Northwestern St. wins

3-0
20.7%
3-1
25.4%
3-2
20.0%
GRAMB break %
41.7% vs this opp
NW ST break %
44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

  1. 01
    Amaris MarksKill+13.2%

    Kill by Amaris Marks (set by Alayna Howard)

    Set 3 · GRAMB 24-23 NW ST · GRAMB 38%51%

  2. 02
    Amaris MarksAttack error+12.5%

    Attack error by Amaris Marks

    Set 3 · GRAMB 24-25 NW ST · NW ST 59%71%

  3. 03
    Olivia NziokiKill+11.9%

    Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 24-24 NW ST · NW ST 67%79%

  4. 04
    Olivia NziokiAttack error+11.7%

    Attack error by Olivia Nzioki

    Set 4 · GRAMB 27-26 NW ST · GRAMB 19%30%

  5. 05
    Olivia NziokiKill+11.6%

    Kill by Olivia Nzioki (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 3 · GRAMB 24-26 NW ST · NW ST 71%83%

  6. 06

    Kill by Gillian Grace Wolf (set by Jade Longlad)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 24-25 NW ST · NW ST 79%90%

  7. 07
    Alayna HowardBad set+11.0%

    Bad set by Alayna Howard

    Set 4 · GRAMB 27-28 NW ST · NW ST 79%90%

  8. 08
    Elsie SanchezKill+10.2%

    Kill by Elsie Sanchez (set by Bailey Hollis)

    Set 4 · GRAMB 27-29 NW ST · NW ST 90%100%

Official NCAA box

Box score

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
417136.4440002110118
414220.6000003010115
42211.000000601013
4107.14326011200001
4014-.250102410000
33313.000202001014
49525.160000000009
4002.0003121420001
4000010400001
4003.0001200500000
37319.211000400007
23116.125000000003
2023-.667011200001
1000000000000
1000300100000
Team totals5620159.226473857540496
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
422231.64500010313.525.5
415540.2501012200015
49324.250211150010.510.5
4103.333023200003
4109.1114112120010.52.5
4138-.250001200001
41011.000010300002
4003.0004031810000
4000002300000
35110.40000240111.56.5
34419.000000201015
1000000000000
1000000000000
Team totals5918148.27748515643547100

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 GRAMB · NW ST 6

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 4 GRAMBNW ST 2

Set 2

20-25

Longest run 4 GRAMBNW ST 5

Set 3

24-26

Longest run 4 GRAMBNW ST 6

Set 4

27-29

Longest run 4 GRAMBNW ST 4

Bars above the line = Northwestern St. leads, below = Grambling leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Grambling

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%11/17
47%8/17
2
79%11/14
39%7/18
3
58%11/19
42%8/19
4
50%10/20
35%6/17
5
62%8/13
40%6/15
6
44%7/16
27%3/11
All
59%58/99
39%38/97

Northwestern St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
48%11/23
47%8/17
2
69%11/16
35%6/17
3
52%11/21
15%2/13
4
100%9/9
58%14/24
5
60%9/15
31%4/13
6
62%8/13
47%7/15
All
61%59/97
41%41/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

196 rallies

Rally log

#GRAMB-NW STSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+1.8
21-1GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.7
32-1NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+1.8
42-2GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.7
52-3NW STNW STAttack errKenya Lucas+2.3
63-3NW STGRAMB×3Serve errNW ST server+1.8
74-3GRAMBGRAMB×3KillJazmine Binionset Reece Cook+2.5
85-3GRAMBGRAMB×3AceGRAMB serveraced Emmarie McFarland+2.6
95-4GRAMBNW STKillJulia Whitfieldset Jade Longlad+1.8
106-4NW STGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Reece Cook+2.0
116-5GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+1.9
126-6NW STNW STAttack errKenya Lucas+2.5
137-6NW STGRAMBKillAngelique Penaset Reece Cook+2.1
147-7GRAMBNW STKillValerie Brownset Jade Longlad+2.0
157-8NW STNW STAttack errJazmine Binion+2.6
168-8NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+2.0
178-9GRAMBNW STKillAmber Craigset Jade Longlad+2.0
189-9NW STGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.1
1910-9GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.9
2011-9GRAMBGRAMB×3Bad setGillian Grace Wolf+3.0
2111-10GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Emmarie McFarland+2.1
2211-11NW STNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Gillian Grace Wolf+3.0
2312-11NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.4
2412-12GRAMBNW STKillAnna Claire Hebertset Reece Cook+2.3
2513-12NW STGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchez+2.5
2614-12GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errGillian Grace Wolf+3.4
2715-12GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchez+3.3
2816-12GRAMBGRAMB×4KillJazmine Binionset Rihianna Brown+3.0
2916-13GRAMBNW STKillJade Longlad+1.8
3017-13NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+2.4
3117-14GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.8
3218-14NW STGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Asialin Powell+2.4
3318-15GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+1.8
3418-16NW STNW STAttack errLainy Evans+3.0
3519-16NW STGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+3.0
3620-16GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errJulia Whitfield+3.3
3721-16GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.4
3821-17GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.0
3922-17NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+1.7
4022-18GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.9
4123-18NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+1.5
4223-19GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.6
4324-19NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+1.2
4424-20GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+0.3
4525-20NW STGRAMBKillJazmine Binionset Alayna Howard+0.7
Set 2
10-1GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Elsie Sanchez+2.0
21-1NW STGRAMBAttack errAmber Craig+2.1
31-2GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.0
41-3NW STNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.6
52-3NW STGRAMB×3KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.0
63-3GRAMBGRAMB×3KillRihianna Brown+2.8
74-3GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errAmber Craigblk Lyric Jordan+3.0
84-4GRAMBNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.2
94-5NW STNW ST×4AceNW ST serveraced Piper Nelson+2.9
104-6NW STNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.8
114-7NW STNW ST×4KillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+2.6
125-7NW STGRAMBKillRihianna Brownset Alayna Howard+1.9
135-8GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.0
145-9NW STNW STAceNW ST serveraced Lyric Jordan+2.4
156-9NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+1.6
167-9GRAMBGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Hailey Botello+2.5
177-10GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.1
188-10NW STGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Asialin Powell+2.0
198-11GRAMBNW ST×5Serve errGRAMB server+2.2
208-12NW STNW ST×5KillAmber Craigset Gillian Grace Wolf+2.5
218-13NW STNW ST×5Bad setAngelique Pena+2.1
228-14NW STNW ST×5Bad setReece Cook+1.6
238-15NW STNW ST×5KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.2
249-15NW STGRAMBAttack errAmber Craigblk Angelique Pena+0.7
2510-15GRAMBGRAMBAttack errElsie Sanchez+1.2
2610-16GRAMBNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Emmarie McFarland+1.2
2710-17NW STNW ST×4KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+1.1
2810-18NW STNW ST×4KillAmber Craigset Emmarie McFarland+0.7
2910-19NW STNW ST×4Attack errLainy Evansblk Amber Craig+0.4
3011-19NW STGRAMBBad setJade Longlad+0.2
3111-20GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+0.2
3212-20NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+0.1
3312-21GRAMBNW STAttack errRihianna Brownblk Olivia Nzioki+0.2
3413-21NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+0.1
3513-22GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+0.1
3613-23NW STNW STAttack errNile Johnson+0.1
3714-23NW STGRAMB×3Serve errNW ST server+0.0
3815-23GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errOlivia Nzioki+0.0
3916-23GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errJulia Whitfield+0.1
4016-24GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Emmarie McFarland+0.1
4117-24NW STGRAMB×4KillKenya Lucasset Reece Cook+0.0
4218-24GRAMBGRAMB×4AceGRAMB serveraced Elsie Sanchez+0.1
4319-24GRAMBGRAMB×4KillAngelique Pena+0.1
4420-24GRAMBGRAMB×4Bad setAnna Claire Hebert+0.3
4520-25GRAMBNW STBad setReece Cook+0.6
Set 3
11-0NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.5
22-0GRAMBGRAMBBad setEmmarie McFarland+3.3
32-1GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.4
43-1NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+2.6
53-2GRAMBNW STAttack errKenya Lucas+2.4
64-2NW STGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Reece Cook+2.7
74-3GRAMBNW STAttack errKenya Lucasblk Gillian Grace Wolf, Olivia Nzioki+2.5
85-3NW STGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Reece Cook+2.7
95-4GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.5
106-4NW STGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Reece Cook+2.8
116-5GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.6
127-5NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+2.9
137-6GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.7
147-7NW STNW STAceNW ST serveraced Asialin Powell+3.6
158-7NW STGRAMB×4KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.9
169-7GRAMBGRAMB×4KillLainy Evansset Asialin Powell+3.9
1710-7GRAMBGRAMB×4AceGRAMB serveraced Elsie Sanchez+3.9
1811-7GRAMBGRAMB×4KillLainy Evans+3.7
1911-8GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Angelique Pena+2.4
2011-9NW STNW STAttack errNile Johnson+3.6
2112-9NW STGRAMB×3Attack errAmber Craig+3.2
2213-9GRAMBGRAMB×3KillKenya Lucasset Reece Cook+3.9
2314-9GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Piper Nelson+3.4
2414-10GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+2.0
2515-10NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+2.7
2615-11GRAMBNW ST×6KillGillian Grace Wolfset Alayna Howard+2.0
2715-12NW STNW ST×6KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.3
2815-13NW STNW ST×6AceNW ST serveraced Team+3.9
2915-14NW STNW ST×6Attack errPiper Nelson+4.5
3015-15NW STNW ST×6KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+4.8
3115-16NW STNW ST×6KillOlivia Nziokiset Reece Cook+4.9
3216-16NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+3.8
3316-17GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+4.0
3417-17NW STGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Reece Cook+4.0
3517-18GRAMBNW STAttack errAmaris Marksblk Olivia Nzioki+4.2
3617-19NW STNW STBad setAlayna Howard+5.3
3718-19NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+3.7
3818-20GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+4.3
3918-21NW STNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Alayna Howard+4.7
4019-21NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.7
4119-22GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+3.8
4220-22NW STGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.6
4321-22GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+5.5
4422-22GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Lainy Evans+8.1
4522-23GRAMBNW STKillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+7.4
4623-23NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+7.3
4724-23GRAMBGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Alayna Howard+13.2
4824-24GRAMBNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+10.2
4924-25NW STNW ST×3Attack errAmaris Marks+12.5
5024-26NW STNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+11.6
Set 4
11-0GRAMBGRAMBAttack errKenadii Winfrey+2.8
22-0GRAMBGRAMBAttack errJulia Whitfield+2.9
32-1GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.1
42-2NW STNW STAceNW ST serveraced Asialin Powell+2.8
53-2NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Asialin Powell+2.3
64-2GRAMBGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+3.0
74-3GRAMBNW STAttack errRihianna Brown+2.2
85-3NW STGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+2.4
96-3GRAMBGRAMB×3KillLyric Jordanset Reece Cook+3.1
107-3GRAMBGRAMB×3Attack errGillian Grace Wolfblk Rihianna Brown+3.0
117-4GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.0
128-4NW STGRAMBAttack errGillian Grace Wolf+2.4
138-5GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.0
148-6NW STNW STAttack errKenya Lucas+3.0
159-6NW STGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Reece Cook+2.6
1610-6GRAMBGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Piper Nelson+3.2
1710-7GRAMBNW ST×3Serve errGRAMB server+2.1
1810-8NW STNW ST×3Attack errRihianna Brownblk Kenadii Winfrey+3.1
1910-9NW STNW ST×3Attack errAmaris Marksblk Jade Longlad, Kenadii Winfrey+3.3
2011-9NW STGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Reece Cook+2.8
2111-10GRAMBNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.6
2211-11NW STNW ST×3Attack errAngelique Pena+3.6
2311-12NW STNW ST×3Bad setAlayna Howard+3.6
2412-12NW STGRAMB×4KillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+2.8
2513-12GRAMBGRAMB×4KillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+4.0
2614-12GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchez+4.1
2715-12GRAMBGRAMB×4Attack errElsie Sanchezblk Lainy Evans+4.0
2815-13GRAMBNW STKillElsie Sanchezset Jade Longlad+2.6
2916-13NW STGRAMBKillLainy Evansset Alayna Howard+3.2
3016-14GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Emmarie McFarland+2.7
3117-14NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Alayna Howard+3.3
3217-15GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+2.7
3317-16NW STNW STBad setKenya Lucas+4.3
3418-16NW STGRAMBKillLyric Jordanset Bailey Hollis+3.9
3518-17GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+3.4
3619-17NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+4.1
3720-17GRAMBGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Bailey Hollis+5.0
3820-18GRAMBNW STAttack errAngelique Pena+2.9
3921-18NW STGRAMBKillAmaris Marksset Bailey Hollis+4.0
4021-19GRAMBNW STBad setAmaris Marks+2.9
4122-19NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+4.2
4222-20GRAMBNW STKillKenadii Winfreyset Jade Longlad+2.8
4323-20NW STGRAMBKillAlayna Howardset Rihianna Brown+4.4
4423-21GRAMBNW STServe errGRAMB server+2.5
4524-21NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+4.6
4624-22GRAMBNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+1.8
4724-23NW STNW ST×4Attack errLyric Jordanblk Olivia Nzioki+5.3
4824-24NW STNW ST×4KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+11.9
4924-25NW STNW ST×4KillGillian Grace Wolfset Jade Longlad+11.0
5025-25NW STGRAMBServe errNW ST server+8.3
5125-26GRAMBNW STKillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+8.3
5226-26NW STGRAMBKillKenya Lucasset Bailey Hollis+8.3
5327-26GRAMBGRAMBAttack errOlivia Nzioki+11.7
5427-27GRAMBNW ST×3KillOlivia Nziokiset Jade Longlad+9.0
5527-28NW STNW ST×3Bad setAlayna Howard+11.0
5627-29NW STNW ST×3KillElsie Sanchezset Bailey Hollis+10.2

Score shown after each rally, Grambling first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.