Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 3, 2026

Marist def. Manhattan 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Marist 95.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 3, 2:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Marist beat visiting Manhattan 3-1 (18-25, 30-28, 25-23, 25-10) on Sat, Oct 3, 2026. Marist's Mallory Reck led with 14 kills, and Cecilia Potter-Pessoa added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 3

Set1234Sets
MANHAT252823101
MARIST183025253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

15 blocks, led by Savannah Smith: Marist won it at the net.

The match turned twice; each line shows Marist's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Marist went in as RallyIQ's 96% pick.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Manhattan 18–21 Marist

    Down 18–21, Manhattan scored 5 straight to lead 23–21.

    Marist 89% → 65%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Manhattan 24–22 Marist

    3 straight Marist points turned a 22–24 deficit into a 25–24 lead.

    Marist 61% → 85%

Marist above 50Manhattan belowMax swing 11.5%

ManhattanMarist

Sideout %
Manhattan 59.8·Marist 67.8
Break %
Manhattan 32.2·Marist 40.2
Hitting
Manhattan .200·Marist .283
Longest run
Manhattan 5·Marist 7
Blocks
Manhattan 9·Marist 150 BS · 18 BA vs 4 BS · 22 BA

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Marist above 50 · Manhattan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+11.5% MARISTrally 184 · set 4

Biggest swing: 11.5% to Marist — set 2, MANHAT 24-24 MARIST. Attack error by Karsyn Harris. MARIST win probability 65% → 76%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 4.6%95.4% MARIST

Manhattan wins

3-0
0.5%
3-1
1.3%
3-2
2.8%

Marist wins

3-0
56.6%
3-1
29.3%
3-2
9.4%
MANHAT break %
35.7% vs this opp
MARIST break %
48.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Karsyn HarrisAttack error+11.5%

    Attack error by Karsyn Harris

    Set 2 · MANHAT 24-24 MARIST · MARIST 65% → 76%

  2. 02

    Karsyn Harris stuffed by Savannah Smith & Trinity Woods

    Set 2 · MANHAT 24-25 MARIST · MARIST 76% → 85%

  3. 03
    Karsyn HarrisKill+8.1%

    Kill by Karsyn Harris

    Set 2 · MANHAT 23-21 MARIST · MANHAT 27% → 35%

  4. 04
    Savannah SmithAttack error+7.6%

    Attack error by Savannah Smith

    Set 2 · MANHAT 24-22 MARIST · MANHAT 31% → 39%

  5. 05
    Katie PowersKill+6.9%

    Kill by Katie Powers (set by Ori Briger)

    Set 2 · MANHAT 22-21 MARIST · MANHAT 20% → 27%

  6. 06
    Mallory ReckKill+6.2%

    Kill by Mallory Reck

    Set 2 · MANHAT 28-30 MARIST · MARIST 85% → 91%

  7. 07
    Sara DasicAttack error+5.9%

    Attack error by Sara Dasic

    Set 2 · MANHAT 25-25 MARIST · MANHAT 15% → 21%

  8. 08
    Trinity WoodsKill+5.9%

    Kill by Trinity Woods (set by Caelyn Dumas)

    Set 2 · MANHAT 25-26 MARIST · MARIST 79% → 85%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
410323.3040326204215
412630.20000010031.513.5
47018.3890221004211
47622.045101120010.57.5
43213.077000000425
4113.0002413600002
47214.35700000010.57.5
4102.5001801400001
4000–211820001
4000–100710000
2237-.143000200002
1113.00000000010.51.5
1000–000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals5124135.20046710476018986
Maristhome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
414637.21610112012216
411323.34800100132.513.5
4409.4444332130031.58.5
4000–122720002
12021.000000100002
1000–000120000
411119.5260001006314
411537.1621033010112
4000–010000001
4001.0007021630000
3318.250000001858
1012-.500000000000
Team totals5617138.283536115474221598

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Manhattan vs Marist

Season series · Marist leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 MANHAT · MARIST 7

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 3 MANHATMARIST 3

Set 2

28-30

Longest run 5 MANHATMARIST 3

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 3 MANHATMARIST 3

Set 4

10-25

Longest run 1 MANHATMARIST 7

Bars above the line = Marist leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

No clean sets to split.

Marist

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

184 rallies

#MANHAT-MARISTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MARISTMARISTAttack errKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.5
20-2MARISTMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
31-2MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+0.3
41-3MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.3
52-3MARISTMANHAT×3Serve errMarist+0.3
63-3MANHAT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.6
74-3MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedMallory Reckblk Katie Powers, Helenn Montilla+0.7
84-4MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
95-4MARISTMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Ori Briger+0.6
105-5MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
115-6MARISTMARISTAttack errHelenn Montilla+0.6
126-6MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+0.5
137-6MANHATMANHATAttack errTrinity Woods+0.8
147-7MANHATMARISTBlockedHelenn Montillablk Sarah Bumstead+0.5
158-7MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+0.6
169-7MANHATMANHATBlockedSarah Bumsteadblk Abby Morreale, Emma Francesconi+1.0
179-8MANHATMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
1810-8MARISTMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.8
1911-8MANHATMANHAT×3KillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.2
2012-8MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.2
2112-9MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.7
2213-9MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.0
2314-9MANHATMANHATAceManhattanaced Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.3
2414-10MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
2515-10MARISTMANHAT×3KillKarsyn Harris+1.0
2616-10MANHATMANHAT×3BlockedMallory Reckblk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi+1.2
2717-10MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Heidi Chambers+1.0
2817-11MANHATMARISTBad setOri Briger+0.4
2918-11MARISTMANHATKillHelenn Montilla+0.8
3018-12MANHATMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
3118-13MARISTMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+0.8
3219-13MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
3319-14MANHATMARIST×3Attack errHanna Kaczynskaset Julia Pfleger+0.5
3419-15MARISTMARIST×3KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.9
3519-16MARISTMARIST×3BlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Sara Dasic+1.1
3620-16MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.3
3721-16MANHATMANHATAceManhattanaced Claudia Kasperski+1.4
3821-17MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
3922-17MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
4023-17MANHATMANHATAttack errSarah Bumstead+0.8
4123-18MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.2
4224-18MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.4
4325-18MANHATMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.1
Set 2
11-0MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.8
21-1MANHATMARISTKillCaelyn Dumasset Sara Dasic+1.2
32-1MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.4
43-1MANHAT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+2.2
53-2MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.4
64-2MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.7
74-3MANHATMARIST×3Serve errManhattan+1.4
84-4MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.9
94-5MARISTMARIST×3KillSavannah Smithset Caelyn Dumas+1.6
105-5MARISTMANHATAttack errSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.3
116-5MANHATMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Emilia Kuzniar+2.2
126-6MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
137-6MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+1.7
147-7MANHATMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.5
158-7MARISTMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Emilia Kuzniar+1.8
169-7MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+2.8
179-8MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+1.8
1810-8MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+2.2
1911-8MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+3.3
2011-9MANHATMARIST×3Serve errManhattan+2.0
2111-10MARISTMARIST×3BlockedOri Brigerblk Savannah Smith+2.7
2211-11MARISTMARIST×3KillSara Dasicset Abby Morreale+2.6
2312-11MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+2.2
2413-11MANHATMANHATBlockedMallory Reckblk Abby Morreale, Emma Francesconi+3.4
2513-12MANHATMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+2.1
2613-13MARISTMARIST×3BlockedKatie Powersblk Savannah Smith, Mallory Reck+2.9
2713-14MARISTMARIST×3BlockedKarsyn Harrisblk Savannah Smith, Trinity Woods+2.6
2814-14MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morreale+2.1
2914-15MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.9
3015-15MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+2.2
3115-16MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+2.1
3216-16MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+2.4
3316-17MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+2.2
3417-17MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+2.6
3517-18MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasic+2.4
3618-18MARISTMANHATKillEmilia Kuzniarset Karsyn Harris+2.8
3718-19MANHATMARIST×3KillMallory Reck+2.6
3818-20MARISTMARIST×3AceMaristaced Emma Francesconi+3.1
3918-21MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKatie Powers+2.3
4019-21MARISTMANHAT×5KillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+1.3
4120-21MANHATMANHAT×5BlockedMallory Reckblk Katie Powers, Abby Morreale+3.0
4221-21MANHATMANHAT×5Attack errMallory Reck+4.8
4322-21MANHATMANHAT×5KillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+6.9
4423-21MANHATMANHAT×5KillKarsyn Harris+8.1
4523-22MANHATMARISTKillSavannah Smithset Caelyn Dumas+4.0
4624-22MARISTMANHATAttack errSavannah Smithset Caelyn Dumas+7.6
4724-23MANHATMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+4.0
4824-24MARISTMARIST×3Attack errKarsyn Harris+11.5
4924-25MARISTMARIST×3BlockedKarsyn Harrisblk Savannah Smith, Trinity Woods+8.4
5025-25MARISTMANHATAttack errSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas+5.9
5125-26MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+5.9
5226-26MARISTMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Emilia Kuzniar+5.9
5326-27MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Mallory Reck+5.9
5427-27MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+5.9
5527-28MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+5.9
5628-28MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+5.9
5728-29MANHATMARISTKillSarah Bumstead+5.9
5828-30MARISTMARISTKillMallory Reck+6.2
Set 3
10-1MARISTMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.2
20-2MARISTMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
31-2MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+0.8
42-2MANHATMANHATBlockedMallory Reckblk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers+1.3
52-3MANHATMARIST×3KillMallory Reck+0.9
62-4MARISTMARIST×3AceMaristaced Emma Francesconi+1.1
72-5MARISTMARIST×3BlockedKarsyn Harrisblk Trinity Woods, Savannah Smith+0.9
83-5MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Anna Duncan+0.7
93-6MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.7
103-7MARIST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.7
114-7MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.5
124-8MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.5
135-8MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.6
145-9MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.6
155-10MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Anna Duncan+0.6
166-10MARISTMANHATBlockedSarah Bumsteadblk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi+0.4
176-11MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.4
187-11MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+0.4
197-12MANHATMARISTAttack errEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+0.4
208-12MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.4
218-13MANHATMARISTBlockedKatie Powersblk Mallory Reck, Savannah Smith+0.5
229-13MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+0.4
239-14MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reck+0.5
249-15MARISTMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
2510-15MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Mallory Reck+0.3
2610-16MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.3
2711-16MARISTMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Anna Duncan+0.3
2812-16MANHATMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+0.6
2912-17MANHATMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.5
3013-17MARISTMANHAT×3BlockedSara Dasicblk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska+0.4
3114-17MANHATMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
3215-17MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errSara Dasic+1.4
3315-18MANHATMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
3416-18MARISTMANHATServe errMarist+1.1
3516-19MANHATMARISTKillCaelyn Dumas+1.2
3617-19MARISTMANHAT×3KillMikalah Curranset Ori Briger+1.1
3718-19MANHATMANHAT×3KillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+2.3
3819-19MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattanaced Claudia Kasperski+3.3
3919-20MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+2.5
4020-20MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Ori Briger+2.8
4120-21MANHATMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+2.8
4221-21MARISTMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+3.1
4321-22MANHATMARISTKillSavannah Smithset Caelyn Dumas+3.2
4422-22MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+3.5
4522-23MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+3.9
4623-23MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+4.1
4723-24MANHATMARISTBlockedMikalah Curranblk Caelyn Dumas, Sarah Bumstead+5.0
4823-25MARISTMARISTBlockedMikalah Curranblk Caelyn Dumas, Sarah Bumstead+5.2
Set 4
10-1MANHATMARISTAttack errKatie Powers+0.6
21-1MARISTMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Sara Dasic+0.7
31-2MANHATMARISTServe errManhattan+0.6
42-2MARISTMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.7
52-3MANHATMARIST×4BlockedKatie Powersblk Mallory Reck+0.6
62-4MARISTMARIST×4BlockedKarsyn Harrisblk Trinity Woods, Savannah Smith+0.8
72-5MARISTMARIST×4AceMarist+0.6
82-6MARISTMARIST×4BlockedCaelyn Dumasblk Savannah Smith+0.5
93-6MANHAT
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
103-7MANHATMARIST×3KillMallory Reck+0.4
113-8MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woods+0.4
123-9MARISTMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.3
134-9MARISTMANHATAttack errSara Dasicset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.2
144-10MANHATMARISTBlockedEmma Francesconiblk Savannah Smith, Trinity Woods+0.2
155-10MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconi+0.2
165-11MANHATMARIST×7KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
175-12MARISTMARIST×7BlockedEmma Francesconiblk Caelyn Dumas, Sarah Bumstead+0.2
185-13MARISTMARIST×7KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
195-14MARISTMARIST×7KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
205-15MARISTMARIST×7KillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas·
215-16MARISTMARIST×7KillSarah Bumstead·
225-17MARISTMARIST×7AceMaristaced Anna Duncan·
236-17MARISTMANHATServe errMarist·
246-18MANHATMARISTKillCaelyn Dumasset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa·
256-19MARISTMARISTKillCaelyn Dumasset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa·
267-19MARISTMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger·
277-20MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reck·
287-21MARISTMARISTAttack errMikalah Curran·
298-21MARISTMANHATKillOri Brigerset Julia Pfleger·
308-22MANHATMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas·
318-23MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Julia Pfleger·
329-23MARISTMANHATBlockedEleana Kouteblk Laura Hernandez, Karsyn Harris·
339-24MANHATMARISTAttack errLaura Hernandezset Sara Dasic·
3410-24MARISTMANHATKillHanna Kaczynska·
3510-25MANHATMARISTKillSara Dasicset Caelyn Dumas·

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).