Final · 5 setsFri, Oct 9, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Merrimack def. Marist 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Marist 91.2% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 9, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Merrimack beat visiting Marist 3-2 (18-25, 25-17, 25-20, 15-25, 16-14) on Fri, Oct 9, 2026. Merrimack's Mckenna Shotwell led with 20 kills, and Ella Maldonado added 20 digs.

Data through · final Oct 9

Set12345Sets
MARIST25172025142
MERMCK18252515163

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Five sets, 20 kills for Mckenna Shotwell, and a Merrimack win.

3 stretches decided it. Percentages are Merrimack's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Marist went in at 91% by RallyIQ.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 5 · Marist 0–0 Merrimack

    Merrimack opened the set with 5 straight points for a 5–0 lead. The match swung to Merrimack.

    Merrimack 28% → 72%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Marist 7–11 Merrimack

    3 straight Marist points cut a 7–11 deficit to 10–11.

    Merrimack 82% → 53%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Marist 12–14 Merrimack

    Merrimack won 2 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 16–14 and win the match 3–2.

    Merrimack 82% → >99%

Merrimack above 50Marist belowMax swing 35.4%

MaristMerrimack

Sideout %
Marist 59.2·Merrimack 57.8
Break %
Marist 42.2·Merrimack 40.8
Hitting
Marist .226·Merrimack .247
Longest run
Marist 7·Merrimack 5

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Marist below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+35.4% MERMCKrally 200 · set 5

Biggest swing: 35.4% to Merrimack — set 5, MARIST 14-16 MERMCK. Attack error by Molly Malone. MERMCK win probability 65% → 100%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MARIST 92.0%8.0% MERMCK

Marist wins

3-0
48.2%
3-1
31.2%
3-2
12.6%

Merrimack wins

3-0
1.0%
3-1
2.4%
3-2
4.6%
MARIST break %
50.5% vs this opp
MERMCK break %
39.7% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Molly MaloneAttack error+35.4%

    Attack error by Molly Malone

    Set 5 · MARIST 14-16 MERMCK · MERMCK 65% → 100%

  2. 02
    MaristAce+29.3%

    Marist ace on Jocelyn Hammerstrand

    Set 5 · MARIST 14-14 MERMCK · MARIST 29% → 58%

  3. 03
    MaristService error+23.0%

    Marist service error

    Set 5 · MARIST 14-15 MERMCK · MERMCK 42% → 65%

  4. 04
    Mia IzzoKill+20.3%

    Kill by Mia Izzo (set by Claudia Kasperski)

    Set 5 · MARIST 12-14 MERMCK · MERMCK 62% → 82%

  5. 05
    MaristService error+16.7%

    Marist service error

    Set 5 · MARIST 11-13 MERMCK · MERMCK 57% → 74%

  6. 06
    Maiella BlandinKill+14.5%

    Kill by Maiella Blandin (set by Devon Lowe)

    Set 5 · MARIST 10-12 MERMCK · MERMCK 53% → 68%

  7. 07
    MaristAce+12.8%

    Marist ace on Ella Maldonado

    Set 5 · MARIST 10-11 MERMCK · MARIST 34% → 47%

  8. 08
    Mallory ReckKill+11.5%

    Kill by Mallory Reck (set by Cecilia Potter-Pessoa)

    Set 5 · MARIST 12-13 MERMCK · MARIST 26% → 38%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Maristaway
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
513856.089043121010.517.5
513124.5000024002114
511423.3040003012213
54113.23147321400218
50115-.067001142010.50.5
5000–003700000
512325.36000020010.512.5
5001.000011200001
5000–6122300001
37217.29410120010.57.5
1113.000100000001
Team totals6121177.226559158341106101
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
520551.29411210200021
510328.2501003100010
56016.37500440111.57.5
5307.42900010010.53.5
5103.33320121600002
5001.0000101200001
57521.09500010111.58.5
5001.0002211400001
51011.000001300001
5000–7002030000
47124.25000042010.57.5
2102.500000000001
2027-.286000000000
2000–000100000
Team totals5616162.2475141079924499

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Marist vs Merrimack

Season series · Merrimack leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MARIST · MERMCK 5

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 7 MARISTMERMCK 3

Set 2

17-25

Longest run 4 MARISTMERMCK 4

Set 3

20-25

Longest run 3 MARISTMERMCK 3

Set 4

25-15

Longest run 5 MARISTMERMCK 2

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 3 MARISTMERMCK 5

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Marist leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Marist

SlotSideout %Break %
1
52%12/23
23%3/13
2
73%11/15
27%4/15
3
60%9/15
50%11/22
4
82%9/11
59%13/22
5
56%9/16
44%7/16
6
44%8/18
36%5/14
All
59%58/98
42%43/102

Merrimack

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
47%9/19
2
55%11/20
45%9/20
3
63%10/16
23%3/13
4
45%9/20
44%7/16
5
53%9/17
25%3/12
6
69%9/13
50%9/18
All
58%59/102
41%40/98

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

200 rallies

#MARIST-MERMCKSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
22-0MARISTMARISTBlockedMckenna Shotwellblk Caelyn Dumas, Mallory Reck+0.8
32-1MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+0.7
42-2MERMCKMERMCKAttack errMolly Malone+1.0
53-2MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
63-3MARISTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.8
74-3MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+0.8
85-3MARISTMARISTAceMarist+0.9
95-4MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+0.7
106-4MERMCKMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
117-4MARISTMARISTBlockedMaiella Blandinblk Sarah Bumstead, Sara Dasic+0.8
127-5MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+0.6
137-6MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimackaced Mallory Reck+0.9
148-6MERMCKMARIST×3Attack errMaiella Blandin+0.7
159-6MARISTMARIST×3Attack errMckenna Shotwell+0.8
1610-6MARISTMARIST×3Bad setDevon Lowe+0.7
1710-7MARISTMERMCK×3Serve errMarist+0.5
1810-8MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+0.8
1910-9MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+1.1
2011-9MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.8
2111-10MARISTMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Devon Lowe+0.9
2212-10MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+0.9
2312-11MARISTMERMCKAttack errMallory Reck+0.9
2413-11MERMCKMARIST×7Serve errMerrimack+0.9
2514-11MARISTMARIST×7KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
2615-11MARISTMARIST×7KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.8
2716-11MARISTMARIST×7AceMaristaced Mckenna Shotwell+0.6
2817-11MARISTMARIST×7KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
2918-11MARISTMARIST×7Attack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+0.3
3019-11MARISTMARIST×7BlockedNatalia Zelubowskiblk Molly Malone, Trinity Woods+0.1
3119-12MARISTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.1
3219-13MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.2
3320-13MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
3420-14MARISTMERMCKBad setCaelyn Dumas+0.1
3521-14MERMCKMARISTKillTaylor Millerset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
3621-15MARISTMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Devon Lowe+0.1
3722-15MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
3822-16MARISTMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Devon Lowe+0.1
3922-17MERMCKMERMCKAttack errTaylor Miller+0.1
4023-17MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Taylor Miller+0.2
4124-17MARISTMARISTAttack errMckenna Shotwell+0.1
4224-18MARISTMERMCKBlockedMallory Reckblk Maiella Blandin·
4325-18MERMCKMARISTKillCaelyn Dumasset Sarah Bumstead·
Set 2
10-1MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.6
20-2MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.8
31-2MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
41-3MARISTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+0.7
52-3MERMCKMARISTBlockedNatalia Zelubowskiblk Caelyn Dumas, Molly Malone+0.6
62-4MARISTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Ella Maldonado+0.7
72-5MERMCKMERMCKAttack errMallory Reck+0.9
83-5MERMCKMARIST×4KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
94-5MARISTMARIST×4KillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.8
105-5MARISTMARIST×4KillTrinity Woodsset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.8
116-5MARISTMARIST×4KillCaelyn Dumasset Maiella Blandin+0.7
126-6MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+0.6
137-6MERMCKMARISTAttack errMaiella Blandin+0.6
147-7MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+0.6
157-8MERMCKMERMCKAttack errTrinity Woods+0.9
168-8MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+0.7
178-9MARISTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+0.8
189-9MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
199-10MARISTMERMCK×3Serve errMarist+0.8
209-11MERMCKMERMCK×3KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.1
219-12MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errCaelyn Dumas+1.2
2210-12MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.8
2310-13MARISTMERMCK×3Serve errMarist+1.0
2410-14MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errMallory Reck+1.3
2510-15MERMCKMERMCK×3KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+1.2
2611-15MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+0.7
2711-16MARISTMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+1.0
2811-17MERMCKMERMCKBad setCaelyn Dumas+1.1
2912-17MERMCKMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
3013-17MARISTMARISTAttack errMaiella Blandin+0.9
3113-18MARISTMERMCKBlockedTrinity Woodsblk Tamilore Afolalu, Naomi Vajda+1.1
3214-18MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
3315-18MARISTMARISTKillTrinity Woods+1.1
3415-19MARISTMERMCK×3KillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+1.3
3515-20MERMCKMERMCK×3KillGabrielle Mooreset Caelyn Dumas+1.3
3615-21MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedSara Dasicblk Maiella Blandin, Mia Izzo+1.0
3716-21MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
3817-21MARISTMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Devon Lowe+0.7
3917-22MARISTMERMCK×4Serve errMarist+1.0
4017-23MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.7
4117-24MERMCKMERMCK×4Bad setCecilia Potter-Pessoa+0.3
4217-25MERMCKMERMCK×4KillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+0.1
Set 3
10-1MERMCKMERMCKAttack errMallory Reck+2.0
20-2MERMCKMERMCKAceMerrimack+2.3
31-2MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+1.6
42-2MARISTMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.9
52-3MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+1.8
63-3MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+1.6
74-3MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Tamilore Afolalu+1.8
84-4MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+1.6
95-4MERMCKMARIST×3Serve errMerrimack+1.5
106-4MARISTMARIST×3AceMaristaced Ella Maldonado+1.7
117-4MARISTMARIST×3Attack errJocelyn Hammerstrand+1.5
127-5MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+1.2
137-6MERMCKMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Devon Lowe+1.8
148-6MERMCKMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
158-7MARISTMERMCKKillNaomi Vajdaset Devon Lowe+1.5
169-7MERMCKMARISTKillCaelyn Dumas+1.5
179-8MARISTMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+1.6
189-9MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errSarah Bumstead+2.4
199-10MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errMallory Reck+2.8
2010-10MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+2.0
2110-11MARISTMERMCK×3KillMia Izzoset Devon Lowe+2.4
2210-12MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Jocelyn Hammerstrand+3.3
2310-13MERMCKMERMCK×3BlockedMolly Maloneblk Mia Izzo+3.6
2411-13MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+2.4
2511-14MARISTMERMCKAttack errMolly Malone+3.1
2612-14MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+2.5
2713-14MARISTMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+3.2
2813-15MARISTMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Sophia DeBonis+3.1
2914-15MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+2.7
3014-16MARISTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+3.3
3114-17MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+4.3
3215-17MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+2.7
3315-18MARISTMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+3.7
3415-19MERMCKMERMCK×3Attack errHeidi Chambers+4.3
3515-20MERMCKMERMCK×3KillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+3.7
3616-20MERMCKMARISTAttack errMckenna Shotwell+1.8
3716-21MARISTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+3.0
3817-21MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.6
3917-22MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado+2.9
4018-22MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
4119-22MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Ella Maldonado+2.7
4219-23MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+3.8
4319-24MERMCKMERMCKKillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+2.7
4420-24MERMCKMARISTAttack errMckenna Shotwell+0.5
4520-25MARISTMERMCKKillSophia DeBonisset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+1.4
Set 4
10-1MARISTMERMCKAttack errMallory Reck+3.1
21-1MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+2.8
31-2MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+3.2
42-2MERMCKMARISTBad setJocelyn Hammerstrand+2.9
53-2MARISTMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+3.4
63-3MARISTMERMCKAttack errTrinity Woods+3.0
74-3MERMCKMARIST×5KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+2.7
85-3MARISTMARIST×5AceMaristaced Mckenna Shotwell+3.1
96-3MARISTMARIST×5AceMaristaced Tamilore Afolalu+2.7
107-3MARISTMARIST×5Attack errTamilore Afolalu+2.2
118-3MARISTMARIST×5KillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+1.8
128-4MARISTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Mckenna Shotwell+1.4
139-4MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
1410-4MARISTMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+1.4
1510-5MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+1.0
1611-5MERMCKMARISTKillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.1
1711-6MARISTMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Devon Lowe+1.0
1811-7MERMCKMERMCKAttack errHeidi Chambers+1.7
1912-7MERMCKMARIST×3KillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+1.5
2013-7MARISTMARIST×3KillMallory Reckset Heidi Chambers+1.5
2114-7MARISTMARIST×3KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas+1.0
2214-8MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+0.7
2315-8MERMCKMARISTKillCaelyn Dumas+0.8
2415-9MARISTMERMCKAttack errMallory Reck+0.6
2516-9MERMCKMARISTServe errMerrimack+0.8
2617-9MARISTMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+0.6
2717-10MARISTMERMCKKillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+0.3
2818-10MERMCKMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+0.4
2919-10MARISTMARISTServe errMarist+0.3
3019-11MARISTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Ella Maldonado+0.1
3120-11MERMCKMARIST×4KillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.2
3221-11MARISTMARIST×4KillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.1
3322-11MARISTMARIST×4KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas·
3423-11MARISTMARIST×4KillSarah Bumsteadset Caelyn Dumas·
3523-12MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe·
3623-13MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe·
3724-13MERMCKMARISTBlockedMaiella Blandinblk Sarah Bumstead, Heidi Chambers·
3824-14MARISTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe·
3924-15MERMCKMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Ella Maldonado·
4025-15MERMCKMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+0.7
Set 5
10-1MARISTMERMCK×5KillMckenna Shotwellset Sophia DeBonis+6.3
20-2MERMCKMERMCK×5KillJocelyn Hammerstrandset Sophia DeBonis+8.7
30-3MERMCKMERMCK×5AceMerrimackaced Sara Dasic+9.4
40-4MERMCKMERMCK×5KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+9.6
50-5MERMCKMERMCK×5KillMia Izzoset Jocelyn Hammerstrand+9.3
61-5MERMCKMARISTBad setSophia DeBonis+5.4
72-5MARISTMARISTBlockedJocelyn Hammerstrandblk Molly Malone+7.8
82-6MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+8.5
93-6MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+6.3
103-7MARISTMERMCK×3KillTamilore Afolaluset Sophia DeBonis+8.8
113-8MERMCKMERMCK×3KillKaitlyn Oxceus+9.8
123-9MERMCKMERMCK×3AceMerrimackaced Sara Dasic+8.1
134-9MERMCKMARISTKillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+3.9
145-9MARISTMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+6.5
155-10MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+8.1
166-10MERMCKMARISTKillMolly Maloneset Caelyn Dumas+4.8
177-10MARISTMARISTBad setDevon Lowe+8.0
187-11MARISTMERMCKKillMckenna Shotwellset Devon Lowe+10.0
198-11MERMCKMARIST×3KillTrinity Woodsset Caelyn Dumas+6.0
209-11MARISTMARIST×3KillHeidi Chambersset Caelyn Dumas+10.2
2110-11MARISTMARIST×3AceMaristaced Ella Maldonado+12.8
2210-12MARISTMERMCKKillMaiella Blandinset Devon Lowe+14.5
2311-12MERMCKMARISTKillHeidi Chambersset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+10.8
2411-13MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+16.7
2512-13MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Cecilia Potter-Pessoa+11.5
2612-14MARISTMERMCKKillMia Izzoset Claudia Kasperski+20.3
2713-14MERMCKMARISTKillMallory Reckset Caelyn Dumas+11.4
2814-14MARISTMARISTAceMaristaced Jocelyn Hammerstrand+29.3
2914-15MARISTMERMCKServe errMarist+23.0
3014-16MERMCKMERMCKAttack errMolly Malone+35.4

Score shown after each rally, Marist first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).