Santa Clara vs Cincinnati Volleyball: Santa Clara Wins 3-0

FinalTue, Sep 1, 2026

3:0

Santa Clara won at Cincinnati 3-0 (25-16, 25-23, 25-21) on Tue, Sep 1, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 13 kills, and Lexi Trapani added 15 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 1:45 PM CT · final Sep 1

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STCLAR	25	25	25	3
CINCY	16	23	21	0

Win probability

Cincinnati above 50 · Santa Clara below

Biggest swing: 14.8% to Santa Clara — set 2, STCLAR 25-23 CINCY. Attack error by Lilian Entenmann. CINCY win probability 45% → 31%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STCLAR 19.2%80.8% CINCY

Santa Clara wins

3-0

3.1%

3-1

6.4%

3-2

9.8%

Cincinnati wins

3-0

32.3%

3-1

30.4%

3-2

18.0%

STCLAR break %: 37.4% vs this opp
CINCY break %: 44.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Lilian EntenmannAttack error+14.8%
Attack error by Lilian Entenmann
Set 2 · STCLAR 25-23 CINCY · STCLAR 55% → 69%
02
Santa ClaraAce+12.6%
Santa Clara ace on Ava Ledebuhr
Set 2 · STCLAR 24-23 CINCY · STCLAR 42% → 55%
03
Cate ShanahanKill+8.5%
Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 2 · STCLAR 23-23 CINCY · STCLAR 34% → 42%
04
Santa ClaraAce+6.9%
Santa Clara ace on Andrea Simovski
Set 3 · STCLAR 24-21 CINCY · STCLAR 90% → 97%
05
Selin AslayanKill+6.3%
Kill by Selin Aslayan (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 3 · STCLAR 23-21 CINCY · STCLAR 84% → 90%
06
Cate ShanahanKill+5.8%
Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 3 · STCLAR 20-17 CINCY · STCLAR 84% → 90%
07
Izzy BusignaniKill+5.7%
Kill by Izzy Busignani (set by Kate Lijic)
Set 3 · STCLAR 21-20 CINCY · CINCY 12% → 18%
08
Morgan HayesKill+5.5%
Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 3 · STCLAR 22-20 CINCY · STCLAR 82% → 88%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Santa Claraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Cate ShanahanOH	3	13	3	28	.357	0	1	1	8	0	2	2	3	17
20Morgan HayesOPP	3	12	3	27	.333	0	2	2	3	1	0	1	0.5	14.5
9Selin AslayanOH	3	6	2	20	.200	0	2	2	7	1	0	0	0	8
6Grace FlanaganMB	3	6	1	16	.313	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	2	8
21Bryn ShankleMB	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
1Macy HinshawS	3	1	0	2	.500	32	0	0	6	0	0	4	2	3
11Lexi TrapaniL/DS	3	1	0	1	1.000	3	1	3	15	0	0	0	0	2
10Ashlynn ReillyL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	3	0	0	0	0	2
22Tia KapiheOH	1	0	0	3	.000	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
8Alyssa EimerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18Hailey NewellS	1	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Savannah WalkerOPP	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	10	104	.317	36	8	10	46	3	2	13	8.5	75

Cincinnatihome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
2Sydney NolanOH	3	12	3	35	.257	2	0	0	12	1	1	0.5	12.5
7Andrea SimovskiOH	3	4	3	23	.043	0	2	0	6	2	0	0	6
11Nina ScruccaOPP	3	5	3	13	.154	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Audrey RomeMB	3	4	2	10	.200	0	0	1	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
6Kate LijicS	3	1	0	4	.250	30	1	0	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
8Ligia WilliamsOH	2	3	2	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	3.5
1Ava LedebuhrL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	16	2	0	0	0
21Viktoria NinovaL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	3	7	1	0	0	0
16Izzy BusignaniOH	2	8	2	17	.353	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8
5Lilian EntenmannMB	1	0	2	5	-.400	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	0.5
13Kayla EdgintonOH	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9Kayla HostetlerL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0
18Tatjana SimeunovicMB	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	17	113	.177	34	3	7	44	8	6	3	60

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 STCLAR · CINCY 4

Set 1

25-16

Longest run 8 STCLARCINCY 3

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 STCLARCINCY 3

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 4 STCLARCINCY 4

Bars above the line = Cincinnati leads, below = Santa Clara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Santa Clara

No clean sets to split.

Cincinnati

No clean sets to split.

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (0 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

135 rallies

#	STCLAR-CINCY	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1–4	2-2		STCLAR 2 · CINCY 2	NCAA feed gap4 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.2
5	2-3	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	+1.2
6	2-4	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+1.6
7	3-4	CINCY	STCLAR×8	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.1
8	4-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Kill	Grace Flanagan		+1.9
9	5-4		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.1
10	6-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+2.3
11	7-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Kayla Hostetler	+2.4
12	8-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Viktoria Ninova	+2.4
13	9-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.3
14	10-4	STCLAR	STCLAR×8	Blocked	Andrea Simovski	blk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan	+2.1
15	10-5	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+1.1
16	11-5	CINCY	STCLAR×4	Serve err	Cincinnati		+1.5
17	12-5	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.8
18	13-5		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+1.4
19	14-5	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Blocked	Ligia Williams	blk Cate Shanahan	+1.1
20	14-6	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+0.4
21	15-6	CINCY	STCLAR×3	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.7
22	16-6	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Izzy Busignani		+0.7
23	17-6	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Blocked	Nina Scrucca	blk Bryn Shankle, Cate Shanahan	+0.4
24	17-7	STCLAR	CINCY×3	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Viktoria Ninova	+0.1
25	17-8		CINCY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.3
26	17-9	CINCY	CINCY×3	Ace	Cincinnati		+0.4
27	18-9	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.5
28	18-10	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams	set Kate Lijic	+0.2
29	18-11		CINCY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.6
30	19-11	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.7
31	20-11	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+0.5
32	20-12	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca		+0.1
33	21-12	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.3
34	22-12	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Kayla Hostetler	+0.2
35	22-13	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		·
36	23-13	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
37	23-14	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome	set Kate Lijic	·
38	24-14	CINCY	STCLAR	Attack err	Ligia Williams		·
39	24-15	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		·
40	24-16	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Ligia Williams		·
41	25-16	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Hailey Newell	·
Set 2
1	1-0	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.0
2	1-1	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+1.9
3	2-1	CINCY	STCLAR	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+2.1
4	2-2	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+1.9
5	3-2	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.1
6	3-3	STCLAR	CINCY×3	Serve err	Santa Clara		+2.0
7	3-4	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Kate Lijic	set Sydney Nolan	+2.8
8	3-5	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+2.6
9	4-5	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan		+1.8
10	4-6	STCLAR	CINCY	Attack err	Grace Flanagan		+1.8
11	5-6	CINCY	STCLAR	Serve err	Cincinnati		+1.8
12	6-6	STCLAR	STCLAR	Blocked	Sydney Nolan	blk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan, Cate Shanahan	+3.0
13	6-7	STCLAR	CINCY×3	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.0
14	6-8	CINCY	CINCY×3	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+2.8
15–16	7-9		STCLAR · CINCY	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.8
17	7-10	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.7
18	8-10	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.6
19	9-10	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Lilian Entenmann		+2.9
20–22	11-11		STCLAR 2 · CINCY	NCAA feed gap3 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.6
23	11-12	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.4
24	12-12	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.6
25	12-13	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+2.6
26	13-13		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.7
27	13-14	STCLAR	CINCY×3	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+2.7
28	13-15	CINCY	CINCY×3	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+3.7
29	13-16		CINCY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.1
30	14-16	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.9
31	15-16	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Andrea Simovski	+3.6
32	15-17	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+2.7
33	16-17	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Lexi Trapani	+2.6
34	16-18	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Andrea Simovski	set Kate Lijic	+2.9
35	17-18	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.7
36	18-18	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Sydney Nolan		+5.1
37–38	19-19		STCLAR · CINCY	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.2
39	19-20	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Nina Scrucca	set Kate Lijic	+4.0
40	19-21	CINCY	CINCY	Blocked	Selin Aslayan	blk Audrey Rome, Kate Lijic	+5.3
41	20-21	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.1
42	20-22	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan		+3.9
43	21-22	CINCY	STCLAR	Attack err	Andrea Simovski		+3.2
44	21-23	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+4.4
45	22-23	CINCY	STCLAR×4	Kill	Selin Aslayan		+3.2
46	23-23	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+8.5
47	24-23	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+12.6
48	25-23	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Attack err	Lilian Entenmann		+14.8
Set 3
1	0-1	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.7
2	1-1	CINCY	STCLAR	Serve err	Cincinnati		+1.8
3	2-1	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle		+2.9
4	2-2	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Audrey Rome		+1.9
5	3-2	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.1
6	3-3	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.9
7	3-4	CINCY	CINCY	Attack err	Selin Aslayan		+2.8
8	4-4	CINCY	STCLAR	Serve err	Cincinnati		+2.0
9–10	5-5		STCLAR · CINCY	NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+0.1
11	5-6	STCLAR	CINCY	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+2.0
12	6-6		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.1
13	7-6	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.4
14	7-7	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+2.2
15	8-7	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan		+2.4
16	9-7	STCLAR	STCLAR	Serve err	Santa Clara		+3.8
17	9-8	STCLAR	CINCY	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+2.3
18	10-8	CINCY	STCLAR×4	Serve err	Cincinnati		+2.7
19	11-8	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Sydney Nolan	+4.0
20	12-8		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.9
21	13-8	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.6
22	13-9	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+1.9
23	14-9	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.6
24	15-9	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes		+3.1
25	15-10	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+1.5
26	16-10		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+2.2
27	16-11	STCLAR	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+1.4
28	16-12	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+2.7
29	16-13		CINCY	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+3.4
30	16-14	CINCY	CINCY×4	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+4.0
31	17-14	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+3.5
32	17-15	STCLAR	CINCY	Serve err	Santa Clara		+2.7
33	17-16	CINCY	CINCY	Ace	Cincinnati	aced Morgan Hayes	+4.7
34	18-16	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Lexi Trapani	+4.0
35	18-17	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Sydney Nolan	set Kate Lijic	+3.3
36	19-17	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes		+4.2
37	20-17	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+5.8
38	20-18	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+2.8
39	21-18		STCLAR	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+4.3
40	21-19	STCLAR	CINCY	Attack err	Bryn Shankle		+2.8
41	21-20	CINCY	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+5.7
42	22-20	CINCY	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+5.5
43	22-21	STCLAR	CINCY	Kill	Izzy Busignani	set Kate Lijic	+4.0
44	23-21	CINCY	STCLAR×3	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+6.3
45	24-21	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Andrea Simovski	+6.9
46	25-21	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Ace	Santa Clara	aced Ava Ledebuhr	+2.8

Score shown after each rally, Santa Clara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Santa Clara def. Cincinnati 3–0