Saint Peter's vs Merrimack Volleyball: Merrimack Wins 3-0

FinalFri, Oct 23, 2026ESPN+

0:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Saint Peter's 51.6% · upsetLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Merrimack beat visiting Saint Peter's 3-0 (27-25, 25-12, 25-16) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Merrimack's Tamilore Afolalu led with 12 kills, and Ella Maldonado added 19 digs.

Data through Nov 3, 10:45 PM CT · final Oct 23

Set	1	2	3	Sets
ST PTR	25	12	16	0
MERMCK	27	25	25	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Merrimack held on against Saint Peter's.

The match turned 3 times. Numbers are Merrimack's win probability from the RallyIQ model, rally by rally. Pre-match, Saint Peter's was RallyIQ's 52% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 1 · Saint Peter's 13–17 Merrimack
5 straight Saint Peter's points turned a 13–17 deficit into an 18–17 lead. The match swung to Saint Peter's.
Merrimack 62% → 45%
Turning point 2: Set 1 · Saint Peter's 22–20 Merrimack
3 straight Merrimack points turned a 20–22 deficit into a 23–22 lead. The match swung to Merrimack.
Merrimack 38% → 56%
Turning point 3: Set 1 · Saint Peter's 24–24 Merrimack
Merrimack won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 27–25 and lead 1–0.
Merrimack 50% → 68%

Merrimack above 50Saint Peter's belowMax swing 10.0%

Saint Peter'sMerrimack

Sideout %: Saint Peter's 47.4·Merrimack 68.5
Break %: Saint Peter's 31.5·Merrimack 52.6
Hitting: Saint Peter's .068·Merrimack .252
Longest run: Saint Peter's 5·Merrimack 8

Mckenna Shotwell
2 kills inside the turning points, 10 K and .200 for the match (11.5 points).

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Saint Peter's below

Biggest swing: 10.0% to Merrimack — set 1, ST PTR 25-27 MERMCK. Merrimack ace on Valeria Pagan Munoz. MERMCK win probability 58% → 68%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ST PTR 49.3%50.7% MERMCK

Saint Peter's wins

3-0

12.2%

3-1

18.5%

3-2

18.6%

Merrimack wins

3-0

12.8%

3-1

19.0%

3-2

18.9%

ST PTR break %: 44.8% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 44.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
MerrimackAce+10.0%
Merrimack ace on Valeria Pagan Munoz
Set 1 · ST PTR 25-27 MERMCK · MERMCK 58% → 68%
02
Victoria PruvostAttack error+9.9%
Attack error by Victoria Pruvost
Set 1 · ST PTR 25-26 MERMCK · MERMCK 48% → 58%
03
Victoria PruvostKill+9.8%
Kill by Victoria Pruvost (set by Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez)
Set 1 · ST PTR 25-24 MERMCK · ST PTR 50% → 60%
04
Saint Peter'sService error+7.9%
Saint Peter's service error
Set 1 · ST PTR 23-24 MERMCK · MERMCK 50% → 58%
05
MerrimackService error+7.9%
Merrimack service error
Set 1 · ST PTR 24-24 MERMCK · ST PTR 42% → 50%
06
Tamilore AfolaluKill+7.8%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · ST PTR 25-25 MERMCK · MERMCK 40% → 48%
07
Valeria Pagan MunozAttack error+7.7%
Attack error by Valeria Pagan Munoz
Set 1 · ST PTR 22-23 MERMCK · MERMCK 48% → 56%
08
Mckenna ShotwellKill+6.3%
Kill by Mckenna Shotwell (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 1 · ST PTR 22-22 MERMCK · MERMCK 42% → 48%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Saint Peter'saway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Victoria PruvostOH	3	11	5	32	.188	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	11.5
5Karolina T. Rodriguez MendezMB	3	4	1	11	.273	2	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	5.5
2Valeria Pagan MunozOH	3	4	4	14	.000	1	0	1	7	6	0	0	4
20Addison BaglioOH	3	3	3	21	.000	0	0	0	7	0	1	0.5	3.5
21Julia WhaleyMB	3	2	1	10	.100	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	3.5
3Alondra FargasS	3	0	0	3	.000	9	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
1Indira T. Benitez DumengOPP	3	5	4	18	.056	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	7
9Ioanna VerverakiL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	11	0	0	0	0
8Zumra YavuzS	2	0	0	0	–	11	1	2	6	0	0	0	1
10Briana TutenOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
13Eden HarrisOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4Elina ArsovOH	1	0	3	7	-.429	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0
6Meleksu OzmenS	1	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19Alicia ValladaresL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
Team totals		29	21	118	.068	26	1	4	54	8	12	6	53

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	3	10	4	30	.200	0	1	2	8	0	0	1	0.5	11.5
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	3	7	2	22	.227	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	2	9
13Mia IzzoMB	3	3	0	7	.429	0	3	1	3	0	0	2	1	7
17Kaitlyn OxceusOH	3	3	0	4	.750	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	5
18Sienna Franks	3	0	0	2	.000	0	2	1	10	0	0	0	0	2
3Sophia DeBonisS	3	1	0	2	.500	20	1	1	11	0	0	0	0	2
7Tamilore Afolalu	3	12	5	29	.241	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	12.5
14Maiella Blandin	3	7	1	20	.300	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
15Gabrielle Moore	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
22Devon Lowe	3	0	1	2	-.500	16	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	0	19	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	13	119	.252	39	8	7	61	1	1	10	6	77

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 5 ST PTR · MERMCK 8

Set 1

25-27

Longest run 5 ST PTRMERMCK 6

Set 2

12-25

Longest run 2 ST PTRMERMCK 8

Set 3

16-25

Longest run 3 ST PTRMERMCK 5

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Saint Peter's leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Saint Peter's

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%7/15	25%2/8
2	54%7/13	22%2/9
3	33%6/18	13%1/8
4	35%6/17	54%7/13
5	83%5/6	14%1/7
6	71%5/7	44%4/9
All	47%36/76	31%17/54

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	70%7/10	50%6/12
2	88%7/8	50%7/14
3	50%6/12	67%12/18
4	75%6/8	33%3/9
5	60%6/10	60%9/15
6	83%5/6	38%3/8
All	69%37/54	53%40/76

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#	ST PTR-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+1.9
2	1-1	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.9
3	1-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack	aced Briana Tuten	+2.5
4	2-2	MERMCK	ST PTR	Blocked	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	blk Addison Baglio, Julia Whaley	+1.9
5	2-3	ST PTR	MERMCK×6	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.0
6	2-4	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu		+2.5
7	2-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Blocked	Addison Baglio	blk Kaitlyn Oxceus, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+2.4
8	2-6	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+2.3
9	2-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+2.1
10	2-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.8
11	3-8	MERMCK	ST PTR×3	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+1.2
12	4-8	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Ace	Zumra Yavuz	aced Ella Maldonado	+1.8
13	5-8	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Zumra Yavuz	+2.1
14	5-9	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.9
15	6-9	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.7
16	7-9	ST PTR	ST PTR	Bad set	Devon Lowe		+2.5
17	7-10	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+2.2
18	8-10	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.0
19	9-10	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Zumra Yavuz	+2.8
20	9-11	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Devon Lowe	+2.4
21	9-12	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+2.9
22	10-12	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+2.1
23	10-13	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Maiella Blandin	+2.4
24	11-13	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+2.1
25	12-13	ST PTR	ST PTR	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+3.1
26	12-14	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.7
27	13-14	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+2.5
28	13-15	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+2.8
29	13-16	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Oxceus	set Sophia DeBonis	+3.3
30	13-17	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+2.9
31	14-17	MERMCK	ST PTR×5	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+1.8
32	15-17	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Blocked	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	+2.9
33	16-17	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+3.6
34	17-17	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+4.1
35	18-17	ST PTR	ST PTR×5	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Valeria Pagan Munoz	+4.4
36	18-18	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+3.5
37	19-18	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Zumra Yavuz	+3.7
38	19-19	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+3.7
39	20-19	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Zumra Yavuz	+4.1
40	20-20	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+4.0
41	21-20	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+4.5
42	22-20	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Zumra Yavuz	+5.6
43	22-21	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+3.6
44	22-22	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+6.3
45	22-23	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+7.7
46	23-23	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Zumra Yavuz	+5.9
47	23-24	ST PTR	MERMCK	Serve err	Saint Peter's		+7.9
48	24-24	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+7.9
49	25-24	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	+9.8
50	25-25	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+7.8
51	25-26	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+9.9
52	25-27	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+10.0
Set 2
1	0-1	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.0
2	1-1	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+1.9
3	1-2	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.0
4	2-2	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.0
5	2-3	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.0
6	2-4	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Addison Baglio		+2.6
7	3-4	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Alondra Fargas	+2.0
8	3-5	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Serve err	Saint Peter's		+2.1
9	3-6	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Elina Arsov		+2.5
10	3-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+2.4
11	4-7	MERMCK	ST PTR	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+1.7
12	4-8	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+1.9
13	4-9	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+2.2
14	5-9	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.5
15	5-10	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Devon Lowe	+1.8
16	6-10	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	set Zumra Yavuz	+1.5
17	7-10	ST PTR	ST PTR	Blocked	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Julia Whaley, Victoria Pruvost	+2.2
18	7-11	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.1
19	7-12	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Blocked	Victoria Pruvost	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo	+2.3
20	7-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Ella Maldonado	+1.9
21	8-13	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+1.2
22	8-14	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.5
23	8-15	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Elina Arsov		+1.5
24	9-15	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.8
25	9-16	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.1
26	10-16	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	set Briana Tuten	+0.8
27	11-16	ST PTR	ST PTR	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+1.4
28	11-17	ST PTR	MERMCK×8	Serve err	Saint Peter's		+1.5
29	11-18	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+1.3
30	11-19	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Blocked	Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	blk Kaitlyn Oxceus	+0.8
31	11-20	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.5
32	11-21	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+0.2
33	11-22	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+0.1
34	11-23	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Ace	Merrimack		·
35	11-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×8	Attack err	Elina Arsov		·
36	12-24	MERMCK	ST PTR	Blocked	Maiella Blandin	blk Indira T. Benitez Dumeng, Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	·
37	12-25	ST PTR	MERMCK	Serve err	Saint Peter's		·
Set 3
1	1-0	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+1.3
2	1-1	ST PTR	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.3
3	1-2	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Ella Maldonado	+1.7
4	1-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Blocked	Julia Whaley	blk Mckenna Shotwell, Tamilore Afolalu	+1.7
5	1-4	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+1.6
6	1-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.5
7	2-5	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Ioanna Ververaki	+1.1
8	2-6	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+1.2
9	2-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.4
10	2-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Victoria Pruvost		+1.2
11	3-8	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Addison Baglio	set Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez	+0.8
12	3-9	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.0
13	3-10	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+1.0
14	4-10	MERMCK	ST PTR	Blocked	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Karolina T. Rodriguez Mendez, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	+0.7
15	4-11	ST PTR	MERMCK	Attack err	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng		+0.8
16	5-11	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.6
17	6-11	ST PTR	ST PTR	Blocked	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Julia Whaley, Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	+1.0
18	6-12	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+1.0
19	7-12	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.8
20	7-13	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+1.0
21	7-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+1.0
22	7-15	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Blocked	Victoria Pruvost	blk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.7
23	8-15	MERMCK	ST PTR	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+0.4
24	9-15	ST PTR	ST PTR	Kill	Julia Whaley	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.7
25	9-16	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Sophia DeBonis		+0.8
26	10-16	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.5
27	10-17	ST PTR	MERMCK	Bad set	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.7
28	11-17	MERMCK	ST PTR	Kill	Victoria Pruvost	set Alondra Fargas	+0.5
29	11-18	ST PTR	MERMCK	Blocked	Indira T. Benitez Dumeng	blk Kaitlyn Oxceus, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+0.7
30	11-19	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.6
31	12-19	MERMCK	ST PTR	Serve err	Merrimack		+0.2
32	12-20	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Devon Lowe	+0.4
33	13-20	MERMCK	ST PTR×3	Attack err	Devon Lowe		+0.2
34	14-20	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Kill	Valeria Pagan Munoz	set Meleksu Ozmen	+0.4
35	15-20	ST PTR	ST PTR×3	Bad set	Devon Lowe		+0.6
36	15-21	ST PTR	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Devon Lowe	+0.8
37	15-22	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Devon Lowe	+0.5
38	16-22	MERMCK	ST PTR	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+0.2
39	16-23	ST PTR	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Valeria Pagan Munoz		+0.3
40	16-24	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Ace	Merrimack	aced Valeria Pagan Munoz	+0.1
41	16-25	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	·

Score shown after each rally, Saint Peter's first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Merrimack def. Saint Peter's 3–0

Merrimack held on against Saint Peter's.