FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayWCC

3:0

HomeMETRO

Santa Clara def. Manhattan 3–0

(25-19, 25-13, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
STCLAR	25	25	25	3
MANHAT	19	13	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

MANHAT above 50 · STCLAR below

Biggest swing: 0.1% to Santa Clara — set 1, STCLAR 1-0 MANHAT. Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw). MANHAT win probability 1% → 1%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

STCLAR 99.0%1.0% MANHAT

Santa Clara wins

3-0

73.9%

3-1

21.3%

3-2

3.8%

Manhattan wins

3-0

0.1%

3-1

0.2%

3-2

0.7%

STCLAR break %: 50.6% vs this opp
MANHAT break %: 32.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Morgan HayesKill+0.1%
Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 1 · STCLAR 1-0 MANHAT · STCLAR 99% → 99%
02
MANHAT serverAce+0.1%
Manhattan ace on Tia Kapihe
Set 1 · STCLAR 8-6 MANHAT · MANHAT 1% → 1%
03
Karsyn HarrisAttack error+0.1%
Attack error by Karsyn Harris
Set 1 · STCLAR 2-0 MANHAT · STCLAR 99% → 99%
04
Katie PowersKill+0.1%
Kill by Katie Powers (set by Ori Briger)
Set 1 · STCLAR 14-11 MANHAT · MANHAT 1% → 1%
05
Brooke JohnsonKill+0.1%
Kill by Brooke Johnson (set by Emilia Kuzniar)
Set 3 · STCLAR 16-16 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 0%
06
Tia KapiheKill+0.1%
Kill by Tia Kapihe (set by Macy Hinshaw)
Set 1 · STCLAR 4-1 MANHAT · STCLAR 99% → 99%
07
Emma FrancesconiKill+0.1%
Kill by Emma Francesconi (set by Ori Briger)
Set 3 · STCLAR 11-12 MANHAT · MANHAT 0% → 0%
08
STCLAR serverService error+0.1%
Santa Clara service error
Set 1 · STCLAR 2-1 MANHAT · MANHAT 1% → 1%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Santa Claraaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Morgan HayesOPP	3	16	0	24	.667	0	0	2	4	0	3	1.5	17.5
6Grace FlanaganMB	3	7	1	12	.500	2	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	7.5
9Selin AslayanOH	3	6	1	12	.417	0	0	3	4	0	1	0.5	6.5
22Tia KapiheOH	3	4	1	7	.429	0	0	1	2	2	1	0.5	4.5
1Macy HinshawS	3	0	0	1	.000	26	1	0	5	0	2	1	2
21Bryn ShankleMB	2	3	1	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	4	2	5
11Lexi TrapaniL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	2	4	2	7	2	0	0	4
18Hailey NewellS	3	0	0	0	–	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17Savannah WalkerOPP	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10Ashlynn ReillyL/DS	2	1	0	1	1.000	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	2
3Danielle BrownMB	1	0	1	3	-.333	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	2
12Allison DzieciuchMB	1	0	1	2	-.500	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	1
Team totals		37	6	67	.463	32	8	11	25	7	14	7	75

Manhattanhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
22Brooke JohnsonOH	3	7	8	24	-.042	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7
6Katie PowersOH	3	5	1	14	.286	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
11Abby MorrealeMB	3	4	0	6	.667	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
2Karsyn HarrisOH	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	4
5Lyla AuthMB	3	4	2	9	.222	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	4
10Ori BrigerS	3	0	0	1	.000	14	3	1	4	1	0	0	3
4Emilia KuzniarS	3	0	0	0	–	10	3	2	3	0	0	0	3
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	3	1	2	5	-.200	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
15Anna DuncanDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	1	0	0	0
3Julia PflegerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0
8Emma FrancesconiOH	1	3	1	4	.500	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	4
Team totals		28	17	73	.151	25	7	10	20	8	2	1	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 7 STCLAR · MANHAT 4

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 5 STCLARMANHAT 4

Set 2

25-13

Longest run 7 STCLARMANHAT 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 4 STCLARMANHAT 3

Bars above the line = Manhattan leads, below = Santa Clara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Santa Clara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	53%8/15	59%10/17
2	88%7/8	59%10/17
3	55%6/11	40%4/10
4	83%5/6	44%4/9
5	63%5/8	58%7/12
6	100%5/5	44%4/9
All	68%36/53	53%39/74

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%8/16	33%3/9
2	44%7/16	33%4/12
3	83%5/6	22%2/9
4	50%5/10	44%4/9
5	38%5/13	29%2/7
6	38%5/13	29%2/7
All	47%35/74	32%17/53

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	STCLAR-MANHAT	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
2	2-0	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Karsyn Harris		+0.1
3	2-1	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.1
4	3-1	MANHAT	STCLAR×5	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
5	4-1	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
6	5-1	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.1
7	6-1	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Ori Briger	+0.1
8	7-1	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Kaitlyn Doyle	+0.0
9	7-2	STCLAR	MANHAT	Attack err	Tia Kapihe	blk Abby Morreale, Katie Powers	+0.0
10	8-2	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
11	8-3	STCLAR	MANHAT×4	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
12	8-4	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
13	8-5	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Tia Kapihe	+0.1
14	8-6	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Tia Kapihe	+0.1
15	9-6	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Grace Flanagan	+0.1
16	10-6	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan		+0.1
17	10-7	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
18	11-7	MANHAT	STCLAR	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan	+0.1
19	11-8	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
20	12-8	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
21	13-8	STCLAR	STCLAR	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+0.1
22	13-9	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
23	14-9	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
24	14-10	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Ori Briger	+0.0
25	14-11	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.1
26	15-11	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
27	15-12	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.1
28	16-12	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
29	16-13	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+0.1
30	17-13	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
31	18-13	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Karsyn Harris		+0.1
32	18-14	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
33	19-14	MANHAT	STCLAR×3	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
34	20-14	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
35	21-14	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Lyla Auth	blk Bryn Shankle, Selin Aslayan	+0.0
36	21-15	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
37	21-16	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Selin Aslayan		+0.0
38	22-16	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
39	22-17	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
40	23-17	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
41	24-17	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle		+0.0
42	24-18	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Ori Briger	+0.0
43	24-19	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.0
44	25-19	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	MANHAT	STCLAR×5	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
2	2-0	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
3	3-0	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Brooke Johnson	+0.1
4	4-0	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
5	5-0	STCLAR	STCLAR×5	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
6	5-1	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
7	6-1	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
8	7-1	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
9	7-2	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
10	7-3	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth		+0.0
11	8-3	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Lexi Trapani	+0.0
12	8-4	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Ori Briger	+0.0
13	9-4	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Grace Flanagan	+0.0
14	10-4	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
15	10-5	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Karsyn Harris	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
16	10-6	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth		+0.0
17	11-6	MANHAT	STCLAR×3	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
18	12-6	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
19	13-6	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
20	13-7	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
21	14-7	MANHAT	STCLAR×7	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
22	15-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Bryn Shankle, Morgan Hayes	+0.0
23	16-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska	blk Bryn Shankle, Tia Kapihe	+0.0
24	17-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Karsyn Harris	+0.0
25	18-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+0.0
26	19-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Bryn Shankle, Morgan Hayes	+0.0
27	20-7	STCLAR	STCLAR×7	Bad set	Emilia Kuzniar		+0.0
28	20-8	STCLAR	MANHAT×4	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
29	20-9	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Lexi Trapani	+0.0
30	20-10	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Bryn Shankle		+0.0
31	20-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Ashlynn Reilly	+0.0
32	21-11	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
33	21-12	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Ori Briger	+0.0
34	22-12	MANHAT	STCLAR×3	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
35	23-12	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Karsyn Harris		+0.0
36	24-12	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Kill	Ashlynn Reilly	set Hailey Newell	+0.0
37	24-13	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.0
38	25-13	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Hailey Newell	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
2	1-1	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
3	1-2	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Anna Duncan	+0.0
4	1-3	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Danielle Brown	+0.1
5	2-3	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
6	3-3	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+0.0
7	3-4	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
8	3-5	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Danielle Brown	+0.1
9	4-5	MANHAT	STCLAR×3	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
10	5-5	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.1
11	6-5	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
12	6-6	STCLAR	MANHAT	Attack err	Danielle Brown		+0.0
13	7-6	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
14	8-6	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Anna Duncan	+0.0
15	8-7	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
16	8-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	MANHAT server	aced Lexi Trapani	+0.1
17	9-8	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
18	10-8	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Brooke Johnson	blk Allison Dzieciuch, Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
19	10-9	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
20	11-9	MANHAT	STCLAR	Attack err	Katie Powers		+0.0
21	11-10	STCLAR	MANHAT×3	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.0
22	11-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Allison Dzieciuch		+0.1
23	11-12	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+0.1
24	12-12	MANHAT	STCLAR×3	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
25	13-12	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Bad set	Katie Powers		+0.1
26	14-12	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+0.1
27	14-13	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
28	15-13	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
29	15-14	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
30	16-14	MANHAT	STCLAR	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.0
31	16-15	STCLAR	MANHAT	Attack err	Grace Flanagan		+0.1
32	16-16	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Brooke Johnson	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
33	17-16	MANHAT	STCLAR×4	Serve err	MANHAT server		+0.1
34	18-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.1
35	19-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Hanna Kaczynska	+0.1
36	20-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×4	Attack err	Brooke Johnson		+0.0
37	20-17	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.0
38	21-17	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Lexi Trapani	+0.0
39	21-18	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
40	22-18	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
41	23-18	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Karsyn Harris	+0.0
42	23-19	STCLAR	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.0
43	24-19	MANHAT	STCLAR	Attack err	Lyla Auth	blk Morgan Hayes, Allison Dzieciuch	+0.0
44	24-20	STCLAR	MANHAT	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
45	25-20	MANHAT	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Santa Clara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.