FinalFri, Sep 11, 2026

AwayPAC-12

3:0

HomeWCC

San Diego St. def. Santa Clara 3–0

(25-15, 25-15, 25-22)

Set	1	2*	3	Sets
SDSU	25	25	25	3
STCLAR	15	15	22	0

* Set 2: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.

RallyIQ model

Win probability

STCLAR above 50 · SDSU below

Biggest swing: 2.6% to San Diego St. — set 3, SDSU 24-22 STCLAR. Santa Clara service error. STCLAR win probability 5% → 2%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SDSU 60.4%39.6% STCLAR

San Diego St. wins

3-0

17.4%

3-1

23.1%

3-2

19.9%

Santa Clara wins

3-0

8.6%

3-1

14.4%

3-2

16.6%

SDSU break %: 41.5% vs this opp
STCLAR break %: 39.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
STCLAR serverService error+2.6%
Santa Clara service error
Set 3 · SDSU 24-22 STCLAR · SDSU 95% → 98%
02
Layla AustinKill+2.5%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 2 · SDSU 8-6 STCLAR · SDSU 78% → 81%
03
Morgan HayesAttack error+2.5%
Attack error by Morgan Hayes
Set 1 · SDSU 1-0 STCLAR · SDSU 60% → 63%
04
Tessa SchoutenAttack error+2.4%
Attack error by Tessa Schouten
Set 2 · SDSU 5-5 STCLAR · STCLAR 21% → 23%
05
Tessa SchoutenAttack error+2.4%
Tessa Schouten stuffed by Bryn Shankle & Tia Kapihe
Set 1 · SDSU 11-9 STCLAR · STCLAR 31% → 33%
06
Taelyn BentleyKill+2.4%
Kill by Taelyn Bentley (set by Kendall Mairs)
Set 1 · SDSU 13-9 STCLAR · SDSU 69% → 71%
07
Layla AustinKill+2.4%
Kill by Layla Austin (set by Taelyn Bentley)
Set 1 · SDSU 2-0 STCLAR · SDSU 63% → 65%
08
Cate ShanahanAttack error+2.3%
Attack error by Cate Shanahan
Set 2 · SDSU 9-6 STCLAR · SDSU 81% → 83%

Official NCAA box

Box score

San Diego St.away

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
6Ella SchabortOH	3	19	1	26	.692	1	0	3	5	3	1	0.5	19.5
4Layla AustinOH	3	11	2	26	.346	0	1	2	9	1	0	0	12
9Taelyn BentleyMB	3	6	0	7	.857	1	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	6.5
11Tessa SchoutenMB	3	2	4	9	-.222	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	2.5
21Kendall MairsS	3	1	2	7	-.143	32	0	1	7	0	0	0	1
13Nazare JuddL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0
7Annabelle De JagerOH	3	5	0	13	.385	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
3Zara StewartL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	8	0	1	11	0	0	0	0
12Haylee BrownOH	1	2	0	3	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team totals		46	9	91	.407	42	1	9	45	4	4	2	75

Santa Clarahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
20Morgan HayesOPP	3	9	2	23	.304	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	10
22Tia KapiheOH	3	3	0	8	.375	0	0	2	3	1	1	0.5	3.5
6Grace FlanaganMB	3	1	3	10	-.200	1	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
1Macy HinshawS	3	1	0	2	.500	24	0	1	3	0	1	0.5	1.5
10Ashlynn ReillyL/DS	3	0	4	7	-.571	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	1
21Bryn ShankleMB	2	3	0	7	.429	0	0	0	1	0	1	0.5	3.5
14Cate ShanahanOH	3	8	4	23	.174	0	1	0	8	0	1	0.5	9.5
8Alyssa EimerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
11Lexi TrapaniL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	0	2	5	0	0	0	0
12Allison DzieciuchMB	1	2	1	5	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	2.5
9Selin AslayanOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
3Danielle BrownMB	1	0	1	8	-.125	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		28	15	96	.135	28	4	11	28	1	6	3	52

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 SDSU · STCLAR 3

Set 1

25-15

Longest run 4 SDSUSTCLAR 3

Set 2*

25-15

Longest run 5 SDSUSTCLAR 2

Set 3

25-22

Longest run 4 SDSUSTCLAR 3

Bars above the line = Santa Clara leads, below = San Diego St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

San Diego St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	100%5/5	64%9/14
2	83%5/6	29%2/7
3	63%5/8	58%7/12
4	71%5/7	17%1/6
5	43%3/7	57%4/7
6	75%3/4	25%1/4
All	70%26/37	48%24/50

Santa Clara

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	36%5/14	25%1/4
2	71%5/7	0%0/5
3	42%5/12	17%1/6
4	83%5/6	38%3/8
5	43%3/7	29%2/7
6	75%3/4	57%4/7
All	52%26/50	30%11/37

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

127 rallies

Rally log

#	SDSU-STCLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+2.5
2	2-0	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Layla Austin	set Taelyn Bentley	+2.4
3	3-0	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Ashlynn Reilly	blk Taelyn Bentley, Ella Schabort	+2.2
4	3-1	SDSU	STCLAR	Attack err	Layla Austin		+1.4
5	4-1	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
6	5-1	SDSU	SDSU	Ace	SDSU server	aced Tia Kapihe	+2.1
7	5-2	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.3
8	5-3	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Layla Austin	+2.2
9	6-3	STCLAR	SDSU×3	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+1.6
10	7-3	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+2.1
11	8-3	SDSU	SDSU×3	Attack err	Grace Flanagan		+1.8
12	8-4	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.1
13	8-5	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Ella Schabort	+1.9
14	9-5	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.5
15	10-5	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+1.9
16	10-6	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+1.1
17	11-6	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.3
18	11-7	SDSU	STCLAR×3	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.1
19	11-8	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Ella Schabort		+2.0
20	11-9	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Tessa Schouten	blk Bryn Shankle, Tia Kapihe	+2.4
21	12-9	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.9
22	13-9	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+2.4
23	13-10	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+1.4
24	14-10	STCLAR	SDSU×4	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.6
25	15-10	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Ashlynn Reilly		+1.9
26	16-10	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.4
27	17-10	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
28	17-11	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Lexi Trapani	+0.4
29	18-11	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.6
30	19-11	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Ashlynn Reilly		+0.5
31	19-12	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.2
32	20-12	STCLAR	SDSU×4	Bad set	Macy Hinshaw		+0.3
33	21-12	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+0.2
34	22-12	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Ashlynn Reilly		+0.1
35	23-12	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+0.0
36	23-13	SDSU	STCLAR	Bad set	Kendall Mairs		+0.0
37	24-13	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+0.0
38	24-14	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.0
39	24-15	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Ella Schabort	+0.0
40	25-15	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.0
Set 2
1	1-0	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
2	2-0	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+2.2
3	2-1	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.4
4	3-1	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
5	4-1	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Zara Stewart	+2.1
6	4-2	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+1.3
7	4-3	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Grace Flanagan	set Macy Hinshaw	+2.2
8	5-3	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.6
9	5-4	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Selin Aslayan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.5
10	5-5	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Tessa Schouten		+2.4
11	6-5	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Kendall Mairs	set Ella Schabort	+1.7
12	6-6	SDSU	STCLAR	Attack err	Layla Austin	blk Grace Flanagan, Macy Hinshaw	+1.7
13	7-6	STCLAR	SDSU×5	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.7
14	8-6	SDSU	SDSU×5	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+2.5
15	9-6	SDSU	SDSU×5	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+2.3
16	10-6	SDSU	SDSU×5	Kill	Layla Austin		+2.0
17	11-6	SDSU	SDSU×5	Kill	Taelyn Bentley		+1.7
18	11-7	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Macy Hinshaw		+1.0
19	12-7	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.2
20	13-7	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Kendall Mairs	+1.4
21	13-8	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.7
22	14-8	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.9
23	14-9	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.7
24	15-9	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+0.9
25	16-9	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+0.9
26	16-10	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.4
27	16-11	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
28	17-11	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+0.9
29	18-11	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Tia Kapihe		+0.8
30	18-12	SDSU	STCLAR	Feed gap	Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known.		+0.3
31	19-12	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+0.5
32	19-13	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.3
33	20-13	STCLAR	SDSU×4	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.5
34	21-13	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+0.3
35	22-13	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+0.1
36	23-13	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Haylee Brown		+0.0
37	23-14	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
38	24-14	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Haylee Brown	set Kendall Mairs	+0.0
39	24-15	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Bryn Shankle	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.0
40	25-15	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Allison Dzieciuch	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
2	1-1	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+0.9
3	1-2	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.0
4	2-2	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+0.9
5	3-2	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Grace Flanagan	blk Tessa Schouten, Annabelle De Jager	+1.4
6	3-3	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
7	3-4	STCLAR	STCLAR	Ace	STCLAR server	aced Ella Schabort	+1.5
8	4-4	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
9	4-5	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+1.0
10	5-5	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+1.0
11	6-5	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Tessa Schouten	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
12	6-6	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.0
13	7-6	STCLAR	SDSU	Attack err	Morgan Hayes		+1.0
14	7-7	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Allison Dzieciuch	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.0
15	7-8	STCLAR	STCLAR	Attack err	Kendall Mairs	blk Allison Dzieciuch, Cate Shanahan	+1.6
16	8-8	STCLAR	SDSU×4	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.1
17	9-8	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Taelyn Bentley	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.6
18	10-8	SDSU	SDSU×4	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+1.6
19	11-8	SDSU	SDSU×4	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+1.4
20	11-9	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
21	12-9	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
22	12-10	SDSU	STCLAR	Serve err	SDSU server		+0.9
23	13-10	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Annabelle De Jager	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
24	14-10	SDSU	SDSU	Attack err	Grace Flanagan		+1.3
25	14-11	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.7
26	14-12	STCLAR	STCLAR	Bad set	Kendall Mairs		+1.4
27	15-12	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.1
28	15-13	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.0
29	16-13	STCLAR	SDSU×3	Attack err	Allison Dzieciuch		+1.1
30	17-13	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Layla Austin	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.4
31	18-13	SDSU	SDSU×3	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.0
32	18-14	SDSU	STCLAR×3	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.5
33	18-15	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Tessa Schouten		+1.0
34	18-16	STCLAR	STCLAR×3	Attack err	Tessa Schouten		+1.5
35	19-16	STCLAR	SDSU	Attack err	Danielle Brown		+1.3
36	19-17	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Allison Dzieciuch	+1.0
37	20-17	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Layla Austin	set Kendall Mairs	+1.3
38	20-18	SDSU	STCLAR	Attack err	Kendall Mairs		+1.0
39	21-18	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Zara Stewart	+1.4
40	21-19	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Morgan Hayes	set Macy Hinshaw	+1.0
41	22-19	STCLAR	SDSU	Attack err	Cate Shanahan		+1.4
42	22-20	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Cate Shanahan	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.9
43	23-20	STCLAR	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+1.5
44	23-21	SDSU	STCLAR	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Macy Hinshaw	+0.8
45	23-22	STCLAR	STCLAR	Kill	Tia Kapihe	set Grace Flanagan	+2.3
46	24-22	STCLAR	SDSU	Serve err	STCLAR server		+2.6
47	25-22	SDSU	SDSU	Kill	Ella Schabort	set Kendall Mairs	+2.0

Score shown after each rally, San Diego St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.