Final · 5 setsSat, Sep 12, 2026

Santa Clara def. CSU Bakersfield 3–2

Santa Clara beat visiting CSU Bakersfield 3-2 (25-18, 23-25, 25-18, 21-25, 16-14) on Sat, Sep 12, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 23 kills, and Lexi Trapani added 20 digs.

Data through · final Sep 12

Set12345Sets
CSUBAK18251825142
STCLAR25232521163

Win probability

Santa Clara above 50 · CSU Bakersfield below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+23.3% CSUBAKrally 210 · set 5

Biggest swing: 23.3% to CSU Bakersfield — set 5, CSUBAK 14-14 STCLAR. Bad set by Grace Flanagan. STCLAR win probability 86% → 63%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

CSUBAK 14.1%85.9% STCLAR

CSU Bakersfield wins

3-0
2.1%
3-1
4.5%
3-2
7.6%

Santa Clara wins

3-0
38.2%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
16.2%
CSUBAK break %
37.0% vs this opp
STCLAR break %
45.2% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Grace FlanaganBad set+23.3%

    Bad set by Grace Flanagan

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 14-14 STCLAR · CSUBAK 14% → 37%

  2. 02
    Anna BacchinBad set+20.3%

    Bad set by Anna Bacchin

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 14-16 STCLAR · STCLAR 80% → 100%

  3. 03
    Grace FlanaganKill+16.7%

    Kill by Grace Flanagan (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 14-15 STCLAR · STCLAR 63% → 80%

  4. 04
    Kaia GrieveKill+9.6%

    Kill by Kaia Grieve (set by Lexi Trapani)

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 5-6 STCLAR · STCLAR 64% → 73%

  5. 05
    Cate ShanahanKill+9.0%

    Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Lexi Trapani)

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 6-8 STCLAR · STCLAR 73% → 82%

  6. 06
    Cate ShanahanAttack error+8.6%

    Attack error by Cate Shanahan

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 13-14 STCLAR · CSUBAK 5% → 14%

  7. 07
    Morgan HayesAttack error+8.6%

    Attack error by Morgan Hayes

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 1-0 STCLAR · CSUBAK 31% → 39%

  8. 08

    Suelen Lima stuffed by Grace Flanagan & Morgan Hayes

    Set 5 · CSUBAK 7-10 STCLAR · STCLAR 83% → 90%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
510640.10022195010.512.5
54113.231000000215
53313.00000010031.54.5
5229.00001100010.53.5
5117.00017141400002
2001.000000210000
517226.5771000000017
512336.250014100031.514.5
5012-.5001413600001
5002.0008011600000
2000–000000000
1000–002000000
Team totals4919149.2014261658100105100
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
523743.372123100010.525.5
5131148.04201211006317
59221.3331006004211
57117.353000200429
5007.0004621130010.52.5
33517-.118100110003
5001.000043700004
5102.5007142020002
4000–000010000
35214.214000100005
1000–000000000
Team totals6128170.1945610137160168110

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 CSUBAK · STCLAR 5

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 2 CSUBAKSTCLAR 2

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 5 CSUBAKSTCLAR 3

Set 3

18-25

Longest run 3 CSUBAKSTCLAR 5

Set 4

25-21

Longest run 3 CSUBAKSTCLAR 3

Set 5

14-16

Longest run 6 CSUBAKSTCLAR 5

Bars above the line = Santa Clara leads, below = CSU Bakersfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

CSU Bakersfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%13/26
45%9/20
2
76%13/17
24%4/17
3
52%11/21
57%16/28
4
77%10/13
17%2/12
5
56%9/16
23%3/13
6
50%8/16
18%2/11
All
59%64/109
36%36/101

Santa Clara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
65%13/20
58%14/24
2
72%13/18
35%7/20
3
44%12/27
35%7/20
4
77%10/13
39%7/18
5
90%9/10
36%5/14
6
62%8/13
38%5/13
All
64%65/101
41%45/109

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

210 rallies

#CSUBAK-STCLARSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.3
20-2STCLARSTCLARBlockedSuelen Limablk Morgan Hayes, Grace Flanagan+1.2
31-2STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.9
41-3CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Danielle Brown+0.8
52-3STCLARCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes+0.9
63-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errGrace Flanagan+1.5
73-4CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.0
84-4STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+1.1
94-5CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.0
105-5STCLARCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes+1.1
115-6CSUBAKSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Grace Flanagan+1.0
126-6STCLARCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.1
136-7CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
146-8STCLARSTCLARAttack errDefne Yanik+1.4
157-8STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+1.0
168-8CSUBAKCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Analiese Gagliano+1.7
178-9CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
189-9STCLARCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Luiza Da Cruz+1.3
199-10CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
209-11STCLARSTCLARAceSanta Claraaced Suelen Lima+1.6
2110-11STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+1.1
2210-12CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.1
2310-13STCLARSTCLARBad setSamantha Capinpin+1.4
2411-13STCLARCSUBAKBad setMacy Hinshaw+0.9
2511-14CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.0
2612-14STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+0.9
2712-15CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.0
2812-16STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+1.2
2913-16STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Samantha Capinpin+0.7
3013-17CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.8
3113-18STCLARSTCLARAttack errDefne Yanik+0.8
3214-18STCLARCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes+0.4
3314-19CSUBAKSTCLARKillDanielle Brownset Cate Shanahan+0.6
3414-20STCLARSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+0.5
3515-20STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.2
3615-21CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
3716-21STCLARCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+0.2
3816-22CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
3917-22STCLARCSUBAKKillNele Broszatset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
4017-23CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.2
4118-23STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.1
4218-24CSUBAKSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.1
4318-25STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
Set 2
10-1CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayes+0.6
21-1STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.7
31-2CSUBAKSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+0.7
41-3STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanagan+0.9
51-4STCLARSTCLAR×3Bad setLuiza Da Cruz+0.8
62-4STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.5
72-5CSUBAKSTCLAR×3KillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+0.5
82-6STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Suelen Lima+0.7
92-7STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Suelen Lima+0.5
103-7STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.3
113-8CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.4
124-8STCLARCSUBAKBlockedMorgan Hayesblk Defne Yanik, Anna Bacchin+0.3
135-8CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errCate Shanahan+0.6
145-9CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.5
156-9STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.5
166-10CSUBAKSTCLAR×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.5
176-11STCLARSTCLAR×3BlockedSuelen Limablk Morgan Hayes, Allison Dzieciuch+0.6
186-12STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Clara+0.4
197-12STCLARCSUBAK×4Attack errMorgan Hayes+0.2
208-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×4Attack errDanielle Brown+0.5
219-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
2210-12CSUBAKCSUBAK×4KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.9
2310-13CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.7
2411-13STCLARCSUBAKBad setMacy Hinshaw+0.7
2511-14CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+0.7
2612-14STCLARCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
2713-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Danielle Brown+1.3
2814-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Suelen Lima+1.6
2914-15CSUBAKSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
3014-16STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
3114-17STCLARSTCLAR×3Bad setAnna Bacchin+1.2
3215-17STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
3315-18CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.8
3416-18STCLARCSUBAKKillSuelen Lima+0.7
3516-19CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+0.9
3616-20STCLARSTCLARBlockedLeylah Duranblk Allison Dzieciuch, Cate Shanahan+0.9
3717-20STCLARCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Samantha Capinpin+0.5
3817-21CSUBAKSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
3918-21STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+0.4
4018-22CSUBAKSTCLARBlockedSuelen Limablk Morgan Hayes, Allison Dzieciuch+0.6
4119-22STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.4
4220-22CSUBAKCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
4320-23CSUBAKSTCLARKillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+1.0
4421-23STCLARCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Ward+0.6
4522-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×5Attack errDanielle Brown+1.8
4623-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×5Attack errDanielle Brown+3.3
4724-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×5KillJordyn Waite-Ward+5.1
4825-23CSUBAKCSUBAK×5BlockedMorgan Hayesblk Defne Yanik, Anna Bacchin+6.2
Set 3
10-1STCLARSTCLAR×4KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+2.2
20-2STCLARSTCLAR×4KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
30-3STCLARSTCLAR×4AceSanta Clara+1.8
40-4STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errAnna Bacchin+1.5
51-4STCLARCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Luiza Da Cruz+1.0
62-4CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Lexi Trapani+1.7
72-5CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
82-6STCLARSTCLARAceSanta Claraaced Suelen Lima+1.5
93-6STCLARCSUBAKBad setMacy Hinshaw+1.0
104-6CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errDanielle Brown+1.8
114-7CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.3
125-7STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+1.3
135-8CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
145-9STCLARSTCLARBlockedAnna Bacchinblk Grace Flanagan, Macy Hinshaw+1.7
156-9STCLARCSUBAK×3KillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+1.1
167-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errDanielle Brown+2.0
178-9CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfield+2.4
188-10CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.7
199-10STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+1.8
209-11CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.8
2110-11STCLARCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.9
2211-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+3.2
2312-11CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Lima+3.7
2412-12CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+2.4
2512-13STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+3.4
2613-13STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Lexi Trapani+2.5
2713-14CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
2814-14STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Luiza Da Cruz+2.6
2914-15CSUBAKSTCLAR×5KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
3014-16STCLARSTCLAR×5KillGrace Flanagan+3.3
3114-17STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errLuiza Da Cruz+2.8
3214-18STCLARSTCLAR×5BlockedAnna Bacchinblk Grace Flanagan, Morgan Hayes+2.1
3314-19STCLARSTCLAR×5AceSanta Claraaced Suelen Lima+1.4
3415-19STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+0.7
3516-19CSUBAKCSUBAKKillDefne Yanikset Samantha Capinpin+1.6
3616-20CSUBAKSTCLARAttack errSamantha Capinpin+1.4
3716-21STCLARSTCLARAttack errSuelen Lima+1.3
3817-21STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+0.5
3917-22CSUBAKSTCLAR×3Serve errCSU Bakersfield+0.8
4017-23STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Clara+0.5
4117-24STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Boden Liljedahl+0.1
4218-24STCLARCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes·
4318-25CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
Set 4
11-0CSUBAKCSUBAKKillLuiza Da Cruzset Suelen Lima+2.0
22-0CSUBAKCSUBAKAceCSU Bakersfieldaced Alyssa Eimer+2.2
32-1CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.4
43-1STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+1.6
53-2CSUBAKSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
64-2STCLARCSUBAK×3Serve errSanta Clara+1.6
75-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillLeylah Duranset Lexi Trapani+2.4
86-2CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfield+2.5
96-3CSUBAKSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
107-3STCLARCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.9
118-3CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes+2.5
128-4CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.4
139-4STCLARCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+1.9
149-5CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
1510-5STCLARCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+1.9
1611-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×3KillSuelen Limaset Jordyn Waite-Ward+2.4
1712-5CSUBAKCSUBAK×3AceCSU Bakersfieldaced Lexi Trapani+2.1
1812-6CSUBAKSTCLARAttack errSuelen Lima+1.0
1912-7STCLARSTCLARBlockedDefne Yanikblk Allison Dzieciuch, Morgan Hayes+1.8
2013-7STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+1.8
2113-8CSUBAKSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
2213-9STCLARSTCLARKillLexi Trapaniset Anna Bacchin+2.1
2314-9STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Analiese Gagliano+2.0
2414-10CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.4
2515-10STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+2.0
2616-10CSUBAKCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Samantha Capinpin+2.4
2716-11CSUBAKSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Lexi Trapani+1.1
2817-11STCLARCSUBAKBlockedMorgan Hayesblk Leylah Duran, Anna Bacchin+1.7
2917-12CSUBAKSTCLARAttack errNele Broszat+1.1
3017-13STCLARSTCLARKillGrace Flanagan+2.0
3118-13STCLARCSUBAKKillLeylah Duranset Samantha Capinpin+2.1
3218-14CSUBAKSTCLARAttack errNele Broszat+1.3
3318-15STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
3419-15STCLARCSUBAKKillNele Broszatset Samantha Capinpin+2.5
3519-16CSUBAKSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.7
3619-17STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+3.2
3719-18STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Clara+3.8
3820-18STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+3.4
3920-19CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.7
4021-19STCLARCSUBAK×3Serve errSanta Clara+3.7
4122-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errMorgan Hayes+4.8
4223-19CSUBAKCSUBAK×3Attack errAllison Dzieciuch+3.5
4323-20CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+1.0
4424-20STCLARCSUBAKKillJordyn Waite-Wardset Luiza Da Cruz+2.3
4524-21CSUBAKSTCLARServe errCSU Bakersfield+0.6
4625-21STCLARCSUBAKBlockedKaia Grieveblk Leylah Duran, Nele Broszat+0.4
Set 5
11-0CSUBAKCSUBAKAttack errMorgan Hayes+8.6
21-1CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.6
32-1STCLARCSUBAKBlockedCate Shanahanblk Defne Yanik, Suelen Lima+6.4
42-2CSUBAKSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.8
53-2STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+6.7
63-3CSUBAKSTCLARAttack errJordyn Waite-Ward+6.1
74-3STCLARCSUBAKKillAnna Bacchinset Analiese Gagliano+7.1
84-4CSUBAKSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Macy Hinshaw+6.4
95-4STCLARCSUBAKAttack errKaia Grieve+7.4
105-5CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+6.7
115-6STCLARSTCLARKillKaia Grieveset Lexi Trapani+9.6
126-6STCLARCSUBAKKillSuelen Limaset Samantha Capinpin+7.0
136-7CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+6.9
146-8STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+9.0
157-8STCLARCSUBAKServe errSanta Clara+6.0
167-9CSUBAKSTCLAR×5Serve errCSU Bakersfield+6.5
177-10STCLARSTCLAR×5BlockedSuelen Limablk Grace Flanagan, Morgan Hayes+7.6
187-11STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errJordyn Waite-Ward+5.1
197-12STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+2.9
207-13STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+1.2
218-13STCLARCSUBAKAttack errCate Shanahan+0.3
228-14CSUBAKSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+0.6
239-14STCLARCSUBAK×6Attack errCate Shanahan+0.1
2410-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×6Attack errGrace Flanagan+0.4
2511-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×6Attack errCate Shanahan+1.2
2612-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×6Attack errCate Shanahan+3.2
2713-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×6Attack errCate Shanahan+8.6
2814-14CSUBAKCSUBAK×6Bad setGrace Flanagan+23.3
2914-15CSUBAKSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+16.7
3014-16STCLARSTCLARBad setAnna Bacchin+20.3

Score shown after each rally, CSU Bakersfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).