Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Santa Clara def. San Francisco 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Santa Clara 66.7% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 1:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Santa Clara won at San Francisco 3-1 (27-25, 28-30, 25-17, 25-17) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 25 kills, and Macy Hinshaw added 19 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
STCLAR272825253
S FRAN253017171

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.396 on 53 swings: Cate Shanahan and Santa Clara edged San Francisco.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Santa Clara's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Santa Clara at 67%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 1 · Santa Clara 17–17 San Francisco

    4 straight San Francisco points broke a 17–17 tie and made it 21–17.

    Santa Clara 65% → 50%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 1 · Santa Clara 24–24 San Francisco

    Santa Clara closed it, 3 of the final 4 rallies, to take the set 27–25 and lead 1–0.

    Santa Clara 64% → 81%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 2 · Santa Clara 28–27 San Francisco

    San Francisco scored 3 straight to turn a 27–28 deficit into a 30–28 lead.

    Santa Clara 86% → 63%

San Francisco above 50Santa Clara belowMax swing 9.2%

Santa ClaraSan Francisco

Sideout %
Santa Clara 61.1·San Francisco 51.9
Break %
Santa Clara 48.1·San Francisco 38.9
Hitting
Santa Clara .247·San Francisco .173
Longest run
Santa Clara 7·San Francisco 5

Cate Shanahan
25 kills on .396, 27 points; 2 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

San Francisco above 50 · Santa Clara below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+9.2% STCLARrally 194 · set 4

Biggest swing: 9.2% to Santa Clara — set 1, STCLAR 26-25 S FRAN. Andjela Sojic stuffed by Allison Dzieciuch. S FRAN win probability 36% → 27%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STCLAR 77.0%23.0% S FRAN

Santa Clara wins

3-0
28.7%
3-1
29.3%
3-2
19.0%

San Francisco wins

3-0
3.9%
3-1
7.8%
3-2
11.3%
STCLAR break %
43.6% vs this opp
S FRAN break %
38.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Andjela Sojic stuffed by Allison Dzieciuch

    Set 1 · STCLAR 26-25 S FRAN · STCLAR 64% → 73%

  2. 02
    Selin AslayanAttack error+9.0%

    Attack error by Selin Aslayan

    Set 2 · STCLAR 28-30 S FRAN · S FRAN 28% → 37%

  3. 03
    Cate ShanahanKill+8.5%

    Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 27-25 S FRAN · STCLAR 73% → 81%

  4. 04

    Kill by Katariina Korhonen (set by Piper Justiss)

    Set 2 · STCLAR 25-26 S FRAN · S FRAN 20% → 28%

  5. 05
    Emma NeukirchenBlock+8.3%

    Allison Dzieciuch stuffed by Emma Neukirchen

    Set 2 · STCLAR 28-29 S FRAN · S FRAN 20% → 28%

  6. 06
    Petra FritzAttack error+7.8%

    Attack error by Petra Fritz

    Set 2 · STCLAR 24-23 S FRAN · STCLAR 78% → 86%

  7. 07
    Katariina KorhonenAttack error+7.8%

    Attack error by Katariina Korhonen

    Set 2 · STCLAR 27-26 S FRAN · STCLAR 78% → 86%

  8. 08
    Cate ShanahanKill+7.4%

    Kill by Cate Shanahan (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 23-23 S FRAN · STCLAR 56% → 64%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
425453.3961018020227
416742.2140002002117
48222.27301150052.511.5
43320.00000020031.54.5
4016-.1674900190010.50.5
34111.273000201015
4002.0004331100003
4000–0301000003
4000–113400001
24110.30000000010.54.5
Team totals6019166.24755886313129105
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
4201054.18530117000020
419949.20420110000019
44212.16701240414.59.5
48319.263000000008
45113.30800030111.56.5
4003.00020011300000
4003.0007001020000
33314.000000000003
3013-.333000300000
3001.0001801900000
3000–000010000
1002.000500000000
Team totals5929173.173551669852689

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Santa Clara vs San Francisco

Season series · Santa Clara leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 STCLAR · S FRAN 5

Set 1

27-25

Longest run 4 STCLARS FRAN 4

Set 2

28-30

Longest run 5 STCLARS FRAN 5

Set 3

25-17

Longest run 7 STCLARS FRAN 3

Set 4

25-17

Longest run 5 STCLARS FRAN 4

Bars above the line = San Francisco leads, below = Santa Clara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Santa Clara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
44%8/18
13%1/8
2
57%8/14
56%10/18
3
67%8/12
47%7/15
4
80%8/10
33%4/12
5
64%7/11
56%9/16
6
75%6/8
40%4/10
All
62%45/73
44%35/79

San Francisco

SlotSideout %Break %
1
53%8/15
53%8/15
2
62%8/13
50%8/16
3
47%8/17
43%6/14
4
53%8/15
11%1/9
5
55%6/11
38%5/13
6
75%6/8
0%0/6
All
56%44/79
38%28/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

194 rallies

#STCLAR-S FRANSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.7
20-2S FRANS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Jordan Smart+2.5
31-2S FRANSTCLARAttack errKatariina Korhonen+1.6
41-3STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.8
52-3S FRANSTCLAR×4KillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+1.7
63-3STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errAndjela Sojic+2.5
74-3STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
85-3STCLARSTCLAR×4AceSanta Clara+2.3
95-4STCLARS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Adelynn Legates+1.6
106-4S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+1.6
116-5STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.6
126-6S FRANS FRANBlockedGrace Flanaganblk Emma Neukirchen+2.6
137-6S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+1.8
147-7STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Adelynn Legates+1.9
158-7S FRANSTCLARServe errSan Francisco+1.9
168-8STCLARS FRAN×3KillHokulani Perezset Jordan Smart+1.9
178-9S FRANS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+3.0
188-10S FRANS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+3.1
199-10S FRANSTCLARAttack errPetra Fritz+2.0
209-11STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.2
2110-11S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
2210-12STCLARS FRANKillHokulani Perezset Jordan Smart+2.3
2310-13S FRANS FRANAttack errDanielle Brown+3.2
2411-13S FRANSTCLARBad setPetra Fritz+1.9
2512-13STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+3.1
2612-14STCLARS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Adelynn Legates+2.5
2713-14S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.2
2813-15STCLARS FRANAttack errCate Shanahan+2.6
2914-15S FRANSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.3
3014-16STCLARS FRANKillEmma Neukirchenset Laura Amaro+2.7
3115-16S FRANSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
3216-16STCLARSTCLARBad setKatariina Korhonen+3.8
3316-17STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.9
3417-17S FRANSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
3517-18STCLARS FRAN×4KillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+3.1
3617-19S FRANS FRAN×4KillHokulani Perezset Katariina Korhonen+4.6
3717-20S FRANS FRAN×4KillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+4.2
3817-21S FRANS FRAN×4Attack errDanielle Brown+3.3
3918-21S FRANSTCLAR×4KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
4019-21STCLARSTCLAR×4Attack errPetra Fritz+3.1
4120-21STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+4.3
4221-21STCLARSTCLAR×4KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.6
4321-22STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+4.6
4421-23S FRANS FRANKillMaeve Bailey+6.6
4522-23S FRANSTCLARBlockedPetra Fritzblk Grace Flanagan, Danielle Brown+3.2
4623-23STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+7.4
4723-24STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Adelynn Legates+6.8
4824-24S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+6.8
4924-25STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Adelynn Legates+6.8
5025-25S FRANSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+6.8
5126-25STCLARSTCLAR×3BlockedAndjela Sojicblk Allison Dzieciuch+9.2
5227-25STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+8.5
Set 2
11-0S FRANSTCLAR×5KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.3
22-0STCLARSTCLAR×5KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
33-0STCLARSTCLAR×5KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.7
44-0STCLARSTCLAR×5BlockedKatariina Korhonenblk Grace Flanagan, Selin Aslayan+1.5
55-0STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errKatariina Korhonen+1.3
65-1STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+0.8
75-2S FRANS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+1.4
86-2S FRANSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
96-3STCLARS FRAN×5KillEmma Neukirchenset Jordan Smart+1.0
106-4S FRANS FRAN×5Attack errMacy Hinshaw+1.7
116-5S FRANS FRAN×5AceEmma Neukirchen+2.0
126-6S FRANS FRAN×5KillPetra Fritzset Katariina Korhonen+2.2
136-7S FRANS FRAN×5KillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+2.4
147-7S FRANSTCLARBlockedPetra Fritzblk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan+1.6
157-8STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.7
168-8S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.6
178-9STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Piper Justiss+1.8
189-9S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.7
1910-9STCLARSTCLARAttack errAndjela Sojic+2.5
2010-10STCLARS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+1.7
2111-10S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+1.7
2211-11STCLARS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.8
2311-12S FRANS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
2411-13S FRANS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+2.9
2512-13S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Cate Shanahan+1.8
2612-14STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+2.1
2713-14S FRANSTCLARServe errSan Francisco+1.9
2814-14STCLARSTCLARAceSanta Clara+3.0
2914-15STCLARS FRANAttack errSelin Aslayan+2.2
3015-15S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
3115-16STCLARS FRANKillHokulani Perezset Jordan Smart+2.4
3216-16S FRANSTCLAR×3Serve errSan Francisco+2.2
3317-16STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errMaeve Bailey+3.4
3418-16STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+3.2
3518-17STCLARS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Piper Justiss+2.0
3619-17S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.3
3719-18STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+2.1
3820-18S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
3920-19STCLARS FRANKillEmma Neukirchenset Piper Justiss+2.2
4020-20S FRANS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Jordan Smart+4.2
4121-20S FRANSTCLARAttack errKatariina Korhonen+3.2
4221-21STCLARS FRANKillEmma Neukirchenset Jordan Smart+3.2
4321-22S FRANS FRANBlockedGrace Flanaganblk Emma Neukirchen, Hokulani Perez+5.6
4422-22S FRANSTCLARKillDanielle Brownset Macy Hinshaw+3.7
4522-23STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+4.7
4623-23S FRANSTCLARServe errSan Francisco+4.3
4724-23STCLARSTCLARAttack errPetra Fritz+7.8
4824-24STCLARS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Jordan Smart+5.4
4925-24S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.4
5025-25STCLARS FRANAttack errCate Shanahan+5.4
5125-26S FRANS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+8.3
5226-26S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.8
5327-26STCLARSTCLARAttack errKatariina Korhonen+7.8
5427-27STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+5.4
5528-27S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+5.4
5628-28STCLARS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+5.4
5728-29S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedAllison Dzieciuchblk Emma Neukirchen+8.3
5828-30S FRANS FRAN×3Attack errSelin Aslayan+9.0
Set 3
11-0STCLARSTCLARAttack errEmma Neukirchen+3.1
21-1STCLARS FRANAttack errCaitlin Johnson+2.2
31-2S FRANS FRANAttack errCate Shanahan+3.4
42-2S FRANSTCLAR×3KillCaitlin Johnsonset Macy Hinshaw+2.3
53-2STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errPetra Fritz+3.3
64-2STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errHokulani Perez+3.1
74-3STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+2.2
84-4S FRANS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+3.4
95-4S FRANSTCLARKillCaitlin Johnsonset Macy Hinshaw+2.4
105-5STCLARS FRANAttack errDanielle Brown+2.4
115-6S FRANS FRANAttack errSelin Aslayan+3.7
126-6S FRANSTCLAR×3Serve errSan Francisco+2.5
137-6STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errMaeve Bailey+3.6
148-6STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errGrace Flanagan+3.5
158-7STCLARS FRAN×3KillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+2.4
168-8S FRANS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+3.8
178-9S FRANS FRAN×3BlockedSelin Aslayanblk Emma Neukirchen+4.1
189-9S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.7
199-10STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Petra Fritz+3.0
2010-10S FRANSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
2110-11STCLARS FRANKillHokulani Perezset Jordan Smart+3.1
2211-11S FRANSTCLARAttack errPetra Fritz+2.9
2311-12STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Laura Amaro+3.2
24–2512-13STCLAR · S FRAN
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
2613-13STCLARSTCLARKillDanielle Brown+4.6
27–2814-14STCLAR · S FRAN
NCAA feed gap2 points not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.2
2915-14STCLARSTCLAR×7BlockedKatariina Korhonenblk Cate Shanahan+4.9
3016-14STCLARSTCLAR×7KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+4.6
3117-14STCLARSTCLAR×7KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+4.1
3218-14STCLARSTCLAR×7AceSanta Clara+3.2
3319-14STCLARSTCLAR×7KillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+2.3
3420-14STCLARSTCLAR×7KillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
3520-15STCLARS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+0.6
3621-15STCLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.9
3722-15STCLARSTCLARAttack errTalula Lenoir+0.6
3822-16STCLARS FRANKillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+0.2
3922-17S FRANS FRANBlockedCate Shanahanblk Emma Neukirchen+0.5
4023-17S FRANSTCLAR×3Serve errSan Francisco+0.6
4124-17STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Ashlynn Reilly+0.3
4225-17STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errPetra Fritz·
Set 4
11-0S FRANSTCLAR×3KillCaitlin Johnsonset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
22-0STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Laura Amaro+2.6
33-0STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Laura Amaro+2.4
43-1STCLARS FRAN×3KillKatariina Korhonenset Petra Fritz+1.6
53-2S FRANS FRAN×3KillPetra Fritzset Katariina Korhonen+2.6
63-3S FRANS FRAN×3Attack errSelin Aslayan+2.9
74-3S FRANSTCLARAttack errPetra Fritz+2.0
84-4STCLARS FRANBad setSelin Aslayan+2.1
95-4S FRANSTCLAR×3Serve errSan Francisco+2.1
106-4STCLARSTCLAR×3KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.9
117-4STCLARSTCLAR×3KillGrace Flanagan+2.7
127-5STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.7
138-5S FRANSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
149-5STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Cate Shanahan+2.4
1510-5STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCaitlin Johnsonset Macy Hinshaw+2.0
1611-5STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errMaeve Bailey+1.6
1712-5STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahan+1.2
1812-6STCLARS FRAN×4KillPetra Fritzset Piper Justiss+0.6
1912-7S FRANS FRAN×4KillKatariina Korhonenset Laura Amaro+1.2
2012-8S FRANS FRAN×4KillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+1.7
2112-9S FRANS FRAN×4KillKatariina Korhonenset Piper Justiss+2.2
2213-9S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Talula Lenoir+1.8
2313-10STCLARS FRANKillMaeve Baileyset Piper Justiss+1.5
2414-10S FRANSTCLARBlockedKatariina Korhonenblk Caitlin Johnson, Danielle Brown+1.8
2515-10STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
2615-11STCLARS FRANAttack errSelin Aslayan+1.1
2715-12S FRANS FRANAttack errSelin Aslayan+2.2
2816-12S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
2917-12STCLARSTCLARBlockedKatariina Korhonenblk Grace Flanagan, Danielle Brown+2.1
3017-13STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+1.1
3118-13S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
3219-13STCLARSTCLARBlockedEmma Neukirchenblk Grace Flanagan, Selin Aslayan+1.4
3319-14STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+0.6
3420-14S FRANSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+0.9
3521-14STCLARSTCLARAceSanta Clara+0.7
3621-15STCLARS FRANKillPetra Fritzset Jordan Smart+0.2
3721-16S FRANS FRANKillAndjela Sojicset Piper Justiss+0.6
3822-16S FRANSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+0.7
3923-16STCLARSTCLARAceSanta Claraaced True Takemoto+0.4
4023-17STCLARS FRANServe errSanta Clara+0.1
4124-17S FRANSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.2
4225-17STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·

Score shown after each rally, Santa Clara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).