Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 16, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Illinois St. def. Evansville 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Illinois St. 93.2% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 16, 5:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Illinois St. won at Evansville 3-1 (24-26, 25-12, 25-16, 25-23) on Fri, Oct 16, 2026. Emilija Arsic led Illinois St. with 11 kills; Evansville's Wren Jones had a match-high 13.

Data through · final Oct 16

Set1234Sets
ILL ST242525253
EVANS261216231

Match story · written from the play-by-play

An 11–0 run in the second set broke it open for Illinois St.

No single rally moved win probability more than 6.4 points. Evansville peaked at 22% in Set 2. These are the stats that built the gap. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Illinois St. at 93%.

Illinois St.Evansville
  • Break %+14.1 pts
    50.035.9

    49 of 98 on serve vs 28 of 78, so Evansville's sideout was 50.0%.

  • Longest run+7
    114

    11 straight Illinois St. points in the second set stretched a 14–12 lead to 25–12. Final score of the set: 25–12.

Evansville above 50Illinois St. belowMax swing 6.4%

Illinois St.Evansville

Hitting
Illinois St. .299·Evansville .272
Aces
Illinois St. 12·Evansville 3
Serve err
Illinois St. 8·Evansville 17
Blocks
Illinois St. 7·Evansville 81 BS · 12 BA vs 3 BS · 10 BA
Digs
Illinois St. 58·Evansville 48

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Evansville above 50 · Illinois St. below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+6.4% EVANSrally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 6.4% to Evansville — set 1, ILL ST 24-26 EVANS. Kill by Savannah Gogel (set by Carsyn Kelley). EVANS win probability 14% → 21%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

ILL ST 91.2%8.8% EVANS

Illinois St. wins

3-0
46.6%
3-1
31.4%
3-2
13.2%

Evansville wins

3-0
1.1%
3-1
2.6%
3-2
5.0%
ILL ST break %
47.9% vs this opp
EVANS break %
37.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Savannah Gogel (set by Carsyn Kelley)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 24-26 EVANS · EVANS 14% → 21%

  2. 02

    Kill by McKenzie Laubach (set by Carsyn Kelley)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 23-24 EVANS · EVANS 9% → 14%

  3. 03
    Ruth ZieglerKill+3.8%

    Kill by Ruth Ziegler (set by Ella Craggs)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 24-24 EVANS · ILL ST 86% → 90%

  4. 04
    Ryan ScheuKill+3.8%

    Kill by Ryan Scheu (set by Carsyn Kelley)

    Set 1 · ILL ST 24-25 EVANS · EVANS 10% → 14%

  5. 05

    Kill by Jillian Gregory (set by Ella Kohnen)

    Set 4 · ILL ST 25-23 EVANS · ILL ST 97% → 100%

  6. 06
    Wren JonesKill+3.1%

    Kill by Wren Jones (set by Carsyn Kelley)

    Set 3 · ILL ST 10-12 EVANS · EVANS 17% → 20%

  7. 07
    EvansvilleAce+3.0%

    Evansville ace on Emilija Arsic

    Set 3 · ILL ST 7-10 EVANS · EVANS 19% → 22%

  8. 08
    Ruth ZieglerAttack error+3.0%

    Attack error by Ruth Ziegler

    Set 1 · ILL ST 23-23 EVANS · EVANS 6% → 9%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
48214.42901010031.510.5
46315.200031400009
46113.385000100217
4102.5002221600003
22516-.188011300214
14411.000000100215
48117.41200010010.58.5
4000–9412100004
4213.3331912800003
4002.000000900000
38018.44400000111.59.5
211116.62500231010.511.5
1000–000000000
Team totals5618127.29950128583112799
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
49015.60002300132.513.5
413427.3330069400013
49123.3480002004211
48118.38900020212.510.5
46829-.06900011010.56.5
43010.300400180010.53.5
4000–2111410001
4000–003410000
4000–003800000
1003.000000000000
1000–000000000
Team totals4814125.272423174812310877

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 11 ILL ST · EVANS 4

Set 1

24-26

Longest run 4 ILL STEVANS 3

Set 2

25-12

Longest run 11 ILL STEVANS 3

Set 3

25-16

Longest run 11 ILL STEVANS 3

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 3 ILL STEVANS 4

Bars above the line = Evansville leads, below = Illinois St. leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Illinois St.

SlotSideout %Break %
1
70%7/10
55%6/11
2
50%6/12
70%14/20
3
50%5/10
40%4/10
4
63%5/8
44%4/9
5
56%5/9
67%10/15
6
83%5/6
38%3/8
All
60%33/55
56%41/73

Evansville

SlotSideout %Break %
1
58%7/12
25%2/8
2
29%6/21
53%8/15
3
100%5/5
50%5/10
4
26%5/19
17%1/6
5
71%5/7
55%6/11
6
44%4/9
0%0/5
All
44%32/73
40%22/55

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#ILL ST-EVANSSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1EVANSEVANSBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Lyla Fisher, McKenzie Laubach+0.9
21-1EVANSILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+0.6
32-1ILL STILL STBlockedLyla Fisherblk Ruth Ziegler, Ayla Klingenberg+0.8
42-2ILL STEVANS×3KillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+0.6
52-3EVANSEVANS×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+1.0
62-4EVANSEVANS×3BlockedOliwia Caputablk McKenzie Laubach, Ryan Scheu+1.1
73-4EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.7
83-5ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+0.9
93-6EVANSEVANSAttack errRuth Ziegler+1.3
104-6EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.8
114-7ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+1.0
125-7EVANSILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.8
135-8ILL STEVANSBlockedElla Kohnenblk Savannah Gogel+1.1
145-9EVANSEVANSKillSavannah Gogel+1.5
156-9EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.9
166-10ILL STEVANSBlockedJillian Gregoryblk Savannah Gogel+1.2
177-10EVANSILL STKillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.9
187-11ILL STEVANSKillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+1.2
198-11EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.9
209-11ILL STILL STKillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.3
219-12ILL STEVANSKillMcKenzie Laubachset Brooke Herdes+1.2
229-13EVANSEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+1.7
2310-13EVANSILL ST×3KillOliwia Caputaset Ella Craggs+1.0
2411-13ILL STILL ST×3BlockedWren Jonesblk Ruth Ziegler, Oliwia Caputa+1.4
2512-13ILL STILL ST×3KillRuth Zieglerset Samantha Bunch+1.4
2612-14ILL STEVANS×3KillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+1.3
2712-15EVANSEVANS×3KillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+1.8
2812-16EVANSEVANS×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+1.9
2913-16EVANSILL STKillElla Craggs+1.0
3013-17ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+1.5
3113-18EVANSEVANSKillCarsyn Kelleyset Ella Kohnen+1.8
3214-18EVANSILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+0.9
3314-19ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.+1.4
3415-19EVANSILL ST×3Serve errEvansville+0.8
3516-19ILL STILL ST×3KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.5
3617-19ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Wren Jones+1.7
3717-20ILL STEVANSAttack errAbby Reck+1.9
3818-20EVANSILL ST×4KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.3
3919-20ILL STILL ST×4Attack errLyla Fisher+2.1
4020-20ILL STILL ST×4KillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+2.3
4121-20ILL STILL ST×4KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+2.2
4221-21ILL STEVANSKillCarsyn Kelleyset Ella Craggs+1.8
4322-21EVANSILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Craggs+1.9
4423-21ILL STILL STAttack errLyla Fisher+2.1
4523-22ILL STEVANS×3BlockedOliwia Caputablk Ryan Scheu, McKenzie Laubach+1.2
4623-23EVANSEVANS×3Attack errRuth Ziegler+3.0
4723-24EVANSEVANS×3KillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+4.9
4824-24EVANSILL STKillRuth Zieglerset Ella Craggs+3.8
4924-25ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+3.8
5024-26EVANSEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+6.4
Set 2
10-1ILL STEVANSBlockedOliwia Caputablk McKenzie Laubach+1.6
21-1EVANSILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Craggs+1.4
32-1ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.8
42-2ILL STEVANSAttack errOliwia Caputa+1.5
53-2EVANSILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.3
63-3ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.+1.5
74-3EVANSILL ST×5KillElla Kohnenset Samantha Bunch+1.4
85-3ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Ferrillset Samantha Bunch+1.6
96-3ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Gregoryset Samantha Bunch+1.4
107-3ILL STILL ST×5KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+1.1
118-3ILL STILL ST×5AceIllinois St.aced Kendall Agler+0.9
128-4ILL STEVANS×3KillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+0.6
138-5EVANSEVANS×3KillWren Jonesset Ella Kohnen+1.1
148-6EVANSEVANS×3KillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+1.5
159-6EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+1.1
169-7ILL STEVANSAttack errAyla Klingenberg+1.2
1710-7EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+1.2
1811-7ILL STILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Craggs+1.3
1911-8ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+0.9
2011-9EVANSEVANSKillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+1.6
2112-9EVANSILL ST×3KillAyla Klingenbergset Lexi Owen+1.3
2213-9ILL STILL ST×3BlockedLyla Fisherblk Logan Grevengoed+1.4
2314-9ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Wren Jones+1.0
2414-10ILL STEVANS×3Serve errIllinois St.+0.7
2514-11EVANSEVANS×3KillLyla Fisherset Carsyn Kelley+1.3
2614-12EVANSEVANS×3Attack errOliwia Caputa+1.8
2715-12EVANSILL ST×11KillLogan Grevengoedset Samantha Bunch+1.5
2816-12ILL STILL ST×11KillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.5
2917-12ILL STILL ST×11KillLogan Grevengoedset Samantha Bunch+1.1
3018-12ILL STILL ST×11AceIllinois St.+0.7
3119-12ILL STILL ST×11AceIllinois St.+0.4
3220-12ILL STILL ST×11AceIllinois St.aced Wren Jones+0.2
3321-12ILL STILL ST×11AceIllinois St.+0.1
3422-12ILL STILL ST×11Attack errLyla Fisher·
3523-12ILL STILL ST×11KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs·
3624-12ILL STILL ST×11BlockedRyan Scheublk Oliwia Caputa, Abby Reck·
3725-12ILL STILL ST×11KillAbby Reckset Ella Craggs·
Set 3
11-0EVANSILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.1
21-1ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+1.3
32-1EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+1.1
42-2ILL STEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+1.3
53-2EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+1.2
63-3ILL STEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+1.3
74-3EVANSILL STBlockedLyla Fisherblk Logan Grevengoed+1.2
84-4ILL STEVANS×3Attack errAbby Reck+1.4
94-5EVANSEVANS×3KillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+2.1
104-6EVANSEVANS×3AceEvansville+2.4
115-6EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+1.6
125-7ILL STEVANSKillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+2.0
136-7EVANSILL STAttack errLyla Fisher+1.7
146-8ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+2.1
157-8EVANSILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen+1.8
167-9ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+2.2
177-10EVANSEVANSAceEvansvilleaced Emilija Arsic+3.0
188-10EVANSILL ST×3KillLogan Grevengoedset Samantha Bunch+1.9
199-10ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+2.6
2010-10ILL STILL ST×3AceIllinois St.aced Brooke Herdes+2.5
2110-11ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+2.1
2210-12EVANSEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+3.1
2311-12EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Emilija Arsic+2.1
2411-13ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.+2.6
2512-13EVANSILL ST×11Serve errEvansville+2.2
2613-13ILL STILL ST×11KillAbby Reck+2.8
2714-13ILL STILL ST×11KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+2.6
2815-13ILL STILL ST×11BlockedSavannah Gogelblk Abby Reck, Emilija Arsic+2.3
2916-13ILL STILL ST×11KillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+1.8
3017-13ILL STILL ST×11BlockedLyla Fisherblk Jillian Ferrill, Abby Reck+1.4
3118-13ILL STILL ST×11AceIllinois St.+1.0
3219-13ILL STILL ST×11KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.6
3320-13ILL STILL ST×11KillJillian Ferrillset Ella Kohnen+0.3
3421-13ILL STILL ST×11KillAbby Reck+0.2
3522-13ILL STILL ST×11KillEmilija Arsicset Samantha Bunch+0.1
3622-14ILL STEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley·
3722-15EVANSEVANSKillCarsyn Kelley·
3823-15EVANSILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen+0.1
3923-16ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.·
4024-16EVANSILL STKillAbby Reckset Ella Kohnen·
4125-16ILL STILL STKillAyla Klingenbergset Ella Kohnen·
Set 4
11-0ILL STILL STKillLogan Grevengoedset Ella Craggs+1.1
21-1ILL STEVANSKillLyla Fisherset Brooke Herdes+0.9
32-1EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.8
42-2ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+0.9
53-2EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.8
63-3ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+1.0
74-3EVANSILL STAttack errWren Jones+0.9
84-4ILL STEVANSAttack errJillian Gregory+1.0
95-4EVANSILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+0.9
106-4ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Lyla Fisher+1.1
116-5ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.+0.9
127-5EVANSILL ST×3KillJillian Gregoryset Ella Craggs+0.8
138-5ILL STILL ST×3KillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.9
149-5ILL STILL ST×3Attack errWren Jones+0.8
159-6ILL STEVANSKillMcKenzie Laubachset Carsyn Kelley+0.6
1610-6EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.6
1711-6ILL STILL STKillElla Kohnenset Ella Craggs+0.6
1811-7ILL STEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+0.4
1911-8EVANSEVANSKillRyan Scheuset Carsyn Kelley+0.8
2012-8EVANSILL STServe errEvansville+0.6
2112-9ILL STEVANSServe errIllinois St.+0.6
2213-9EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Kohnen+0.6
2313-10ILL STEVANSServe errEmilija Arsic+0.6
2414-10EVANSILL STServe errLexi Owen+0.7
2514-11ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+0.6
2615-11EVANSILL STServe errWren Jones+0.7
2716-11ILL STILL STAceIllinois St.aced Wren Jones+0.7
2816-12ILL STEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+0.4
2917-12EVANSILL STServe errBrooke Herdes+0.5
3018-12ILL ST
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+0.4
3118-13ILL STEVANSKillLyla Fisherset Carsyn Kelley+0.2
3218-14EVANSEVANSBlockedEmilija Arsicblk Ryan Scheu, Carsyn Kelley+0.5
3319-14EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.5
3419-15ILL STEVANSKillLyla Fisherset Carsyn Kelley+0.4
3520-15EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Ella Craggs+0.5
3620-16ILL STEVANS×4KillLyla Fisherset Carsyn Kelley+0.4
3720-17EVANSEVANS×4KillLyla Fisherset Carsyn Kelley+0.8
3820-18EVANSEVANS×4AceEvansville+1.3
3920-19EVANSEVANS×4BlockedJillian Ferrillblk Savannah Gogel, Ryan Scheu+2.1
4021-19EVANSILL STKillEmilija Arsicset Samantha Bunch+1.8
4122-19ILL STILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+1.8
4222-20ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+1.0
4323-20EVANSILL STAttack errWren Jones+1.4
4423-21ILL STEVANSKillWren Jonesset Carsyn Kelley+0.9
4523-22EVANSEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+2.3
4624-22EVANSILL STServe errWren Jones+2.7
4724-23ILL STEVANSKillSavannah Gogelset Carsyn Kelley+1.6
4825-23EVANSILL STKillJillian Gregoryset Ella Kohnen+3.3

Score shown after each rally, Illinois St. first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).