FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMVC

0:3

HomeASUN

Bellarmine def. Evansville 3–0

(25-15, 25-15, 25-17)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
EVANS	15	15	17	0
BELLAR	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

BELLAR above 50 · EVANS below

Biggest swing: 1.1% to Evansville — set 1, EVANS 10-10 BELLAR. Kill by Lyla Fisher (set by Carsyn Kelley). BELLAR win probability 94% → 93%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

EVANS 6.5%93.5% BELLAR

Evansville wins

3-0

0.8%

3-1

1.9%

3-2

3.8%

Bellarmine wins

3-0

51.5%

3-1

30.7%

3-2

11.4%

EVANS break %: 37.3% vs this opp
BELLAR break %: 48.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Lyla FisherKill+1.1%
Kill by Lyla Fisher (set by Carsyn Kelley)
Set 1 · EVANS 10-10 BELLAR · EVANS 6% → 7%
02
Brooke HerdesAttack error+0.9%
Attack error by Brooke Herdes
Set 1 · EVANS 10-12 BELLAR · BELLAR 93% → 94%
03
Sabrina RippleKill+0.9%
Kill by Sabrina Ripple (set by Carsyn Kelley)
Set 1 · EVANS 9-10 BELLAR · EVANS 5% → 6%
04
EVANS serverAce+0.8%
Evansville ace on Ava Long
Set 1 · EVANS 3-3 BELLAR · EVANS 6% → 7%
05
EVANS serverAce+0.8%
Evansville ace on Team
Set 1 · EVANS 7-8 BELLAR · EVANS 5% → 6%
06
Mady YadenKill+0.8%
Kill by Mady Yaden (set by Maddie Carnes)
Set 1 · EVANS 10-11 BELLAR · BELLAR 93% → 93%
07
Lyla FisherAttack error+0.8%
Lyla Fisher stuffed by Mary Herman
Set 1 · EVANS 10-13 BELLAR · BELLAR 94% → 95%
08
Lyla FisherKill+0.7%
Kill by Lyla Fisher (set by Carsyn Kelley)
Set 1 · EVANS 5-6 BELLAR · EVANS 5% → 6%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Evansvilleaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Lyla FisherOH	3	11	3	24	.333	0	0	1	7	4	0	0	0	11
4Sabrina RippleMB	3	1	3	9	-.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2
2Carsyn KelleyS	3	1	0	2	.500	23	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	1
17Ryan ScheuOH	2	4	1	12	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
3Wren JonesOH	2	4	3	15	.067	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	0.5	4.5
18Makenzie MillerMB	1	0	2	6	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6Lexi OwenS	3	0	0	0	–	0	2	1	4	0	0	0	0	2
20Kendall AglerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	0	1
15Brooke HerdesOH	3	0	1	1	-1.000	2	0	2	9	1	0	0	0	0
21McKenzie LaubachMB	2	5	2	9	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
10Aubry DowlingL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0
5Angelica Gonzalez MaltesOH	1	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	1	2
1Carlotta Pascual CentellesOH	1	1	0	2	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		28	15	85	.153	26	3	6	35	11	1	6	4	47

Bellarminehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
2Natalie BlandOH	3	14	3	31	.355	1	3	2	7	0	0	1	0.5	17.5
3Erika SmithMB	3	8	1	13	.538	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	8.5
20Mary HermanMB	3	3	2	9	.111	0	2	1	2	0	2	2	3	8
7Maddie CarnesS	3	3	0	5	.600	35	1	2	6	0	0	1	0.5	4.5
12Abbie LyttleDS	3	0	0	0	–	2	2	1	6	0	0	0	0	2
9Maddie HaganOH	3	1	0	5	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
1Mady YadenOH	3	14	0	24	.583	0	0	0	4	0	0	1	0.5	14.5
11Abby JuliusOH	3	0	0	1	.000	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
24Ava LongDS	3	0	1	1	-1.000	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	1
4Payton ParsonsL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	0	0	10	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		43	7	89	.404	42	11	9	37	3	2	6	5	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 3 EVANS · BELLAR 6

Set 1

15-25

Longest run 3 EVANSBELLAR 5

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 3 EVANSBELLAR 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 3 EVANSBELLAR 6

Bars above the line = Bellarmine leads, below = Evansville leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Evansville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	58%7/12	14%1/7
2	50%6/12	13%1/8
3	32%6/19	25%2/8
4	36%5/14	33%3/9
5	57%4/7	44%4/9
6	44%4/9	50%4/8
All	44%32/73	31%15/49

Bellarmine

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	88%7/8	55%6/11
2	88%7/8	36%4/11
3	86%6/7	63%10/16
4	55%6/11	54%7/13
5	67%4/6	73%11/15
6	44%4/9	43%3/7
All	69%34/49	56%41/73

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

122 rallies

Rally log

#	EVANS-BELLAR	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	EVANS	BELLAR	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.5
2	1-1	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.6
3	1-2	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.5
4	1-3	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
5	2-3	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
6	3-3	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Ava Long	+0.8
7	3-4	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
8	3-5	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.7
9	3-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
10	4-6	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.5
11	5-6	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.7
12	5-7	EVANS	BELLAR	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.5
13	5-8	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
14	6-8	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
15	7-8	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Team	+0.8
16	7-9	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
17	7-10	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.7
18	8-10	BELLAR	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Brooke Herdes	+0.5
19	9-10	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Sabrina Ripple	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.9
20	10-10	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.1
21	10-11	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.8
22	10-12	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Brooke Herdes		+0.9
23	10-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Lyla Fisher	blk Mary Herman	+0.8
24	11-13	BELLAR	EVANS	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk Sabrina Ripple, Ryan Scheu	+0.6
25	11-14	EVANS	BELLAR	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.6
26	12-14	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.6
27	12-15	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.6
28	12-16	BELLAR	BELLAR	Attack err	Makenzie Miller		+0.6
29	13-16	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.4
30	13-17	EVANS	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.5
31	13-18	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.4
32	13-19	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Maddie Carnes		+0.3
33	13-20	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Wren Jones	+0.2
34	13-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Natalie Bland	+0.1
35	14-21	BELLAR	EVANS	Attack err	Natalie Bland		+0.0
36	15-21	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Ava Long		+0.1
37	15-22	EVANS	BELLAR×4	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
38	15-23	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.0
39	15-24	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Attack err	Makenzie Miller	blk Mady Yaden, Mary Herman	+0.0
40	15-25	BELLAR	BELLAR×4	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Brooke Herdes	+0.0
Set 2
1	0-1	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.5
2	1-1	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.4
3	1-2	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Payton Parsons	+0.3
4	1-3	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Aubry Dowling	+0.4
5	1-4	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Ryan Scheu		+0.4
6	2-4	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
7	2-5	EVANS	BELLAR×5	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+0.3
8	2-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Aubry Dowling	+0.3
9	2-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
10	2-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
11	2-9	BELLAR	BELLAR×5	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	+0.1
12	3-9	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.1
13	3-10	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
14	4-10	BELLAR	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
15	5-10	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
16	6-10	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
17	6-11	EVANS	BELLAR	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.2
18	7-11	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
19	7-12	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple		+0.2
20	7-13	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.2
21	7-14	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple	blk Mary Herman	+0.1
22	8-14	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.1
23	9-14	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Mary Herman	blk Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	+0.2
24	9-15	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Payton Parsons	+0.1
25	9-16	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
26	9-17	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	+0.1
27	10-17	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.0
28	11-17	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Mary Herman		+0.1
29	11-18	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Hagan	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
30	12-18	BELLAR	EVANS	Attack err	Natalie Bland	blk McKenzie Laubach, Ryan Scheu	+0.1
31	13-18	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Team	+0.1
32	13-19	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.1
33	13-20	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
34	13-21	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	McKenzie Laubach	blk Natalie Bland, Erika Smith	+0.0
35	14-21	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Angelica Gonzalez Maltes	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
36	14-22	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.0
37	15-22	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Carsyn Kelley	set Brooke Herdes	+0.0
38	15-23	EVANS	BELLAR×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.0
39	15-24	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple		+0.0
40	15-25	BELLAR	BELLAR×3	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.0
Set 3
1	0-1	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
2	1-1	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
3	1-2	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
4	1-3	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.2
5	2-3	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.2
6	2-4	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
7	3-4	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
8	4-4	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Erika Smith	blk Wren Jones, Sabrina Ripple	+0.3
9	4-5	EVANS	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
10	4-6	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.2
11	4-7	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Payton Parsons	+0.2
12	4-8	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mary Herman	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
13	4-9	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Attack err	Wren Jones	blk Mary Herman, Maddie Carnes	+0.1
14	4-10	BELLAR	BELLAR×6	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
15	5-10	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
16	5-11	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
17	6-11	BELLAR	EVANS×3	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
18	7-11	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Wren Jones		+0.1
19	8-11	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
20	8-12	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Mady Yaden	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
21	9-12	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
22	9-13	EVANS	BELLAR	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.1
23	9-14	BELLAR	BELLAR	Attack err	McKenzie Laubach		+0.1
24	10-14	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
25	10-15	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
26	11-15	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
27	11-16	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
28	11-17	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.1
29	12-17	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.1
30	12-18	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Erika Smith	set Maddie Carnes	+0.1
31	13-18	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.0
32	14-18	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.1
33	14-19	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Maddie Carnes	set Payton Parsons	+0.1
34	15-19	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Kendall Agler	+0.1
35	15-20	EVANS	BELLAR	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.1
36	15-21	BELLAR	BELLAR	Ace	BELLAR server	aced Wren Jones	+0.1
37	16-21	BELLAR	EVANS	Serve err	BELLAR server		+0.0
38	16-22	EVANS	BELLAR	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.0
39	16-23	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Abbie Lyttle	+0.0
40	17-23	BELLAR	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
41	17-24	EVANS	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Abbie Lyttle	+0.0
42	17-25	BELLAR	BELLAR	Kill	Natalie Bland	set Maddie Carnes	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Evansville first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.