Mercyhurst vs Chicago State Volleyball: Mercyhurst Wins 3-0

FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026

3:0

RallyIQ pre-match: Mercyhurst 96.8% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercyhurst won at Chicago St. 3-0 (25-22, 25-20, 28-26) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT · final Nov 7

Set	1	2	3	Sets
MERCYH	25	25	28	3
CHI ST	22	20	26	0

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.327 to .168: Mercyhurst outhit Chicago St.

The biggest single-rally swing was 1.2 points, and Chicago St.'s high was 4% in Set 1. The numbers below are where it was won. Mercyhurst went in as RallyIQ's 97% pick.

MercyhurstChicago St.

Hitting+.159
.327.168
48 K / 14 E against 37 K / 19 E.
Longest run+0
66
Mercyhurst scored 6 straight in the first set to open the set 6–0. The set finished 25–22.

Chicago St. above 50Mercyhurst belowMax swing 1.2%

MercyhurstChicago St.

Aces: Mercyhurst 3·Chicago St. 4
Serve err: Mercyhurst 10·Chicago St. 6
Blocks: Mercyhurst 8·Chicago St. 55 BS · 6 BA vs 2 BS · 6 BA
Digs: Mercyhurst 44·Chicago St. 38

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Chicago St. above 50 · Mercyhurst below

Biggest swing: 1.2% to Mercyhurst — set 1, MERCYH 24-22 CHI ST. Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Aliyah Angelici). CHI ST win probability 3% → 2%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCYH 96.2%3.8% CHI ST

Mercyhurst wins

3-0

59.3%

3-1

28.4%

3-2

8.5%

Chicago St. wins

3-0

0.4%

3-1

1.0%

3-2

2.3%

MERCYH break %: 52.5% vs this opp
CHI ST break %: 38.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Roslyn GuerraKill+1.2%
Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 1 · MERCYH 24-22 CHI ST · MERCYH 97% → 98%
02
Roslyn GuerraKill+1.0%
Kill by Roslyn Guerra (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 1 · MERCYH 23-21 CHI ST · MERCYH 96% → 97%
03
Julia ShepherdKill+0.9%
Kill by Julia Shepherd (set by Mya Comer)
Set 3 · MERCYH 24-24 CHI ST · MERCYH 98% → 99%
04
Chicago St.Ace+0.9%
Chicago St. ace on Madison Miner
Set 1 · MERCYH 21-20 CHI ST · CHI ST 3% → 4%
05
Mia MattinglyKill+0.9%
Kill by Mia Mattingly (set by Aliyah Angelici)
Set 1 · MERCYH 22-20 CHI ST · MERCYH 96% → 97%
06
Camryn McCollumKill+0.9%
Kill by Camryn McCollum (set by Nayella George)
Set 1 · MERCYH 23-22 CHI ST · CHI ST 3% → 3%
07
Nina MitchellKill+0.8%
Kill by Nina Mitchell (set by Hailee Collins)
Set 1 · MERCYH 22-21 CHI ST · CHI ST 3% → 4%
08
MercyhurstService error+0.8%
Mercyhurst service error
Set 3 · MERCYH 24-25 CHI ST · CHI ST 1% → 2%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Mercyhurstaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
14Julia ShepherdOPP	3	10	1	13	.692	2	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	11.5
8Madison MinerOH	3	10	1	17	.529	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	10
21Alyssa KrauseDS	3	0	1	3	-.333	18	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
1Roslyn GuerraOH	2	10	2	23	.348	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10
13Mia MattinglyMB	2	3	1	7	.286	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	4
23Ava CarneyMB	2	2	1	7	.143	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
9Payton MelinOPP	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Erin RobbinsMB	2	4	2	7	.286	1	2	3	4	0	1	2	2	8
26Anna LoganDS	2	2	1	6	.167	0	0	1	2	0	1	1	1.5	3.5
7Kalyani OliveOH	2	2	2	6	.000	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
10Mya ComerS	2	0	0	1	.000	15	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0
22Sydney ForchtL/DS	2	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	0
4Aliyah AngeliciS	2	0	0	0	–	7	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0
6Camryn KetronDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
11Kelsie Gaiter-DavisDS	2	0	0	0	–	1	0	1	8	0	0	0	0	0
27Sarina NotaroL/DS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
12Trinity TatupuOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team totals		48	14	104	.327	45	3	10	44	4	5	6	8	78

Chicago St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
11Nayella GeorgeOH	3	13	5	30	.267	5	1	1	10	1	0	2	1	15
9Nina MitchellOH	3	10	5	25	.200	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	1	11
1Rayon ThigpenMB	3	5	1	13	.308	1	0	0	3	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Jenesis PerrinMB	3	3	1	11	.182	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4
3Graci LittlejohnMB	3	3	2	7	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
8Kristine BakhadS	3	0	3	8	-.375	12	0	2	7	0	0	0	0	0
2Camryn McCollumOH	3	2	2	10	.000	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0.5	2.5
17Hailee CollinsS	3	1	0	2	.500	13	1	0	3	0	0	0	0	2
7Reece MazzierL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	2	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
10Eliza CovrigL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	1
6Tenese ButtryDS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
12Skye RileyOH	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	19	107	.168	34	4	6	38	3	2	6	5	68

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercyhurst vs Chicago St.

Season series · Mercyhurst leads 2-0

Fri, Nov 6, 2026Mercyhurst at Chicago St. · Mercyhurst won 3-0Result →
Sat, Nov 7, 2026Mercyhurst at Chicago St. · Mercyhurst won 3-0This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 MERCYH · CHI ST 6

Set 1

25-22

Longest run 6 MERCYHCHI ST 6

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 4 MERCYHCHI ST 4

Set 3

28-26

Longest run 4 MERCYHCHI ST 4

Bars above the line = Chicago St. leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercyhurst

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	82%9/11	36%4/11
2	41%7/17	63%12/19
3	70%7/10	59%10/17
4	70%7/10	46%6/13
5	50%6/12	25%2/8
6	60%6/10	25%2/8
All	60%42/70	47%36/76

Chicago St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	38%5/13
2	44%7/16	53%9/17
3	64%7/11	22%2/9
4	46%6/13	42%5/12
5	100%6/6	45%5/11
6	50%6/12	25%2/8
All	53%40/76	40%28/70

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

146 rallies

#	MERCYH-CHI ST	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	CHI ST	MERCYH×6	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.3
2	2-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Kill	Madison Miner	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.3
3	3-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
4	4-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Nayella George	+0.2
5	5-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
6	6-0	MERCYH	MERCYH×6	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Ava Carney	+0.1
7	6-1	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
8	6-2	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.2
9	7-2	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
10	8-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Nayella George	blk Mia Mattingly	+0.1
11	9-2	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
12	9-3	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.1
13	10-3	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
14	10-4	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
15	11-4	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
16	11-5	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Hailee Collins	+0.1
17	11-6	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
18	12-6	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
19	12-7	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
20	13-7	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
21	14-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.1
22	15-7	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney		+0.1
23	15-8	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		·
24	15-9	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Ava Carney		+0.1
25	16-9	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.1
26	17-9	MERCYH	MERCYH	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Julia Shepherd	+0.1
27	17-10	MERCYH	CHI ST×6	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	·
28	17-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.1
29	17-12	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Blocked	Alyssa Krause	blk Jenesis Perrin	+0.1
30	17-13	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
31	17-14	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Bad set	Julia Shepherd		+0.3
32	17-15	CHI ST	CHI ST×6	Ace	Chicago St.	aced Sydney Forcht	+0.5
33	18-15	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
34	19-15	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.4
35	19-16	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.3
36	20-16	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.3
37	20-17	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.3
38	20-18	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	Chicago St.		+0.5
39	21-18	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.5
40	21-19	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Graci Littlejohn	set Hailee Collins	+0.5
41	21-20	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	Chicago St.	aced Madison Miner	+0.9
42	22-20	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.9
43	22-21	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+0.8
44	23-21	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.0
45	23-22	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Camryn McCollum	set Nayella George	+0.9
46	24-22	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+1.2
47	25-22	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Julia Shepherd	+0.7
Set 2
1	0-1	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.3
2	1-1	CHI ST	MERCYH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.2
3	2-1	MERCYH	MERCYH	Bad set	Hailee Collins		+0.2
4	2-2	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Hailee Collins	+0.2
5	3-2	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.2
6	4-2	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.2
7	4-3	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Hailee Collins	+0.2
8	4-4	CHI ST	CHI ST	Bad set	Mya Comer		+0.3
9	5-4	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.2
10	6-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Erin Robbins	set Rayon Thigpen	+0.2
11	7-4	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Rayon Thigpen		+0.2
12	7-5	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
13	8-5	CHI ST	MERCYH	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Erin Robbins	+0.2
14	8-6	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.2
15	9-6	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
16	9-7	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.2
17	10-7	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Mia Mattingly	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
18	10-8	MERCYH	CHI ST	Attack err	Mia Mattingly		+0.2
19	11-8	CHI ST	MERCYH	Attack err	Jenesis Perrin		+0.2
20	11-9	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.2
21	11-10	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George		+0.3
22	12-10	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Kalyani Olive	set Mya Comer	+0.3
23	13-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.3
24	14-10	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Erin Robbins	set Mya Comer	+0.2
25	14-11	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.2
26	14-12	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.3
27	15-12	CHI ST	MERCYH×4	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.2
28	16-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Camryn McCollum		+0.2
29	17-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.2
30	18-12	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Erin Robbins	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
31	18-13	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.1
32	19-13	CHI ST	MERCYH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.1
33	19-14	MERCYH	CHI ST	Attack err	Erin Robbins		+0.1
34	19-15	CHI ST	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Nayella George	+0.1
35	20-15	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
36	21-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Nina Mitchell		+0.1
37	22-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Camryn McCollum	·
38	22-16	MERCYH	CHI ST×4	Serve err	Mercyhurst		·
39	22-17	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Madison Miner		·
40	22-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Attack err	Julia Shepherd		+0.1
41	22-19	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Hailee Collins	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
42	23-19	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
43	23-20	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+0.1
44	24-20	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Payton Melin	set Mya Comer	+0.2
45	25-20	MERCYH	MERCYH	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.1
Set 3
1	0-1	CHI ST	CHI ST	Attack err	Anna Logan		+0.1
2	1-1	CHI ST	MERCYH×4	Kill	Anna Logan	set Mya Comer	+0.1
3	2-1	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Hailee Collins		+0.1
4	3-1	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Attack err	Kristine Bakhad		+0.1
5	4-1	MERCYH	MERCYH×4	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Kelsie Gaiter-Davis	+0.1
6	4-2	MERCYH	CHI ST×3	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.1
7	4-3	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Blocked	Kalyani Olive	blk Nayella George, Graci Littlejohn	+0.1
8	4-4	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Eliza Covrig	+0.1
9	5-4	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Mya Comer	+0.1
10	5-5	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.1
11	5-6	CHI ST	CHI ST	Ace	Chicago St.	aced Trinity Tatupu	+0.2
12	6-6	CHI ST	MERCYH	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.1
13	6-7	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.1
14	7-7	CHI ST	MERCYH	Blocked	Nayella George	blk Ava Carney, Payton Melin	+0.1
15	7-8	MERCYH	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nayella George	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
16	7-9	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
17	7-10	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Rayon Thigpen		+0.2
18	7-11	CHI ST	CHI ST×4	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Reece Mazzier	+0.3
19	8-11	CHI ST	MERCYH	Blocked	Kristine Bakhad	blk Anna Logan	+0.2
20	8-12	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Rayon Thigpen	set Kristine Bakhad	+0.2
21	9-12	CHI ST	MERCYH	Blocked	Kristine Bakhad	blk Erin Robbins, Anna Logan	+0.2
22	9-13	MERCYH	CHI ST	Attack err	Erin Robbins		+0.3
23	10-13	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Anna Logan	set Mya Comer	+0.2
24	10-14	MERCYH	CHI ST	Attack err	Roslyn Guerra		+0.3
25	10-15	CHI ST	CHI ST	Blocked	Kalyani Olive	blk Nayella George, Graci Littlejohn	+0.3
26	11-15	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Serve err	Chicago St.		+0.2
27	12-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Graci Littlejohn		+0.3
28	13-15	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Ace	Mercyhurst	aced Eliza Covrig	+0.3
29	13-16	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.3
30	14-16	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Kalyani Olive	+0.2
31	15-16	MERCYH	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Aliyah Angelici	+0.3
32	15-17	MERCYH	CHI ST×3	Kill	Jenesis Perrin	set Hailee Collins	+0.3
33	15-18	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George	set Rayon Thigpen	+0.4
34	15-19	CHI ST	CHI ST×3	Kill	Nayella George		+0.4
35	16-19	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
36	16-20	MERCYH	CHI ST	Blocked	Payton Melin	blk Rayon Thigpen, Camryn McCollum	+0.4
37	17-20	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.2
38	17-21	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.4
39	17-22	CHI ST	CHI ST	Blocked	Payton Melin	blk Nina Mitchell	+0.4
40	18-22	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Alyssa Krause	+0.1
41	19-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Blocked	Nina Mitchell	blk Julia Shepherd, Erin Robbins	+0.3
42	20-22	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Erin Robbins	set Mya Comer	+0.3
43	20-23	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Reece Mazzier	+0.5
44	21-23	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Erin Robbins	+0.3
45	21-24	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nina Mitchell	set Hailee Collins	+0.5
46	22-24	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Attack err	Nayella George		+0.2
47	23-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Mya Comer	+0.5
48	24-24	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Mya Comer	+0.9
49	24-25	MERCYH	CHI ST	Serve err	Mercyhurst		+0.8
50	25-25	CHI ST	MERCYH	Kill	Julia Shepherd	set Mya Comer	+0.8
51	25-26	MERCYH	CHI ST	Kill	Nayella George	set Hailee Collins	+0.8
52	26-26	CHI ST	MERCYH×3	Kill	Roslyn Guerra	set Julia Shepherd	+0.8
53	27-26	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Madison Miner	set Mya Comer	+0.7
54	28-26	MERCYH	MERCYH×3	Kill	Ava Carney	set Mya Comer	+0.5

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Mercyhurst def. Chicago St. 3–0

.327 to .168: Mercyhurst outhit Chicago St.