FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Santa Clara def. Portland 3–0

RallyIQ pre-match: Santa Clara 52.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 1, 7:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Santa Clara won at Portland 3-0 (25-19, 25-15, 25-21) on Thu, Oct 1, 2026. Santa Clara's Cate Shanahan led with 14 kills, and Macy Hinshaw added 14 digs.

Data through · final Oct 1

Set123Sets
STCLAR2525253
PORT1915210

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Cate Shanahan hit .464 with 14 kills as Santa Clara rolled past Portland.

No single rally moved win probability more than 4.4 points. Portland peaked at 51% in Set 1. These are the stats that built the gap. RallyIQ gave Santa Clara 52% before first serve.

Santa ClaraPortland
  • Break %+18.2 pts
    48.630.4

    On serve: 36/74 against 17/56 (Portland sideout 51.4%).

  • Hitting+.164
    .404.240

    Kills and errors: 49–9 vs 36–13.

  • Longest run+3
    63

    6 straight Santa Clara points in the second set turned a 0–2 deficit into a 6–2 lead. The set finished 25–15.

Portland above 50Santa Clara belowMax swing 4.4%

Santa ClaraPortland

Aces
Santa Clara 6·Portland 5
Serve err
Santa Clara 4·Portland 6
Blocks
Santa Clara 4·Portland 21 BS · 6 BA vs 0 BS · 4 BA
Digs
Santa Clara 39·Portland 31

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Portland above 50 · Santa Clara below
SET 1SET 2SET 310050100+4.4% STCLARrally 130 · set 3

Biggest swing: 4.4% to Santa Clara — set 1, STCLAR 17-16 PORT. Attack error by Kalaweloilehua Chock. PORT win probability 48% → 44%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

STCLAR 69.7%30.3% PORT

Santa Clara wins

3-0
23.0%
3-1
26.7%
3-2
19.9%

Portland wins

3-0
5.8%
3-1
10.7%
3-2
13.9%
STCLAR break %
42.4% vs this opp
PORT break %
38.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Kalaweloilehua ChockAttack error+4.4%

    Attack error by Kalaweloilehua Chock

    Set 1 · STCLAR 17-16 PORT · STCLAR 52% → 56%

  2. 02
    Morgan HayesKill+4.3%

    Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 18-16 PORT · STCLAR 56% → 60%

  3. 03

    Kill by Allison Dzieciuch (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 21-18 PORT · STCLAR 61% → 66%

  4. 04
    Morgan HayesAttack error+3.5%

    Attack error by Morgan Hayes

    Set 1 · STCLAR 11-12 PORT · PORT 47% → 51%

  5. 05
    Morgan HayesKill+3.4%

    Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 20-18 PORT · STCLAR 58% → 61%

  6. 06

    Kill by Vanessa Haddock (set by Havannah Hoeft)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 11-11 PORT · PORT 44% → 47%

  7. 07
    Kalaweloilehua ChockAttack error+3.1%

    Attack error by Kalaweloilehua Chock

    Set 1 · STCLAR 19-17 PORT · STCLAR 58% → 61%

  8. 08
    Morgan HayesKill+2.9%

    Kill by Morgan Hayes (set by Macy Hinshaw)

    Set 1 · STCLAR 22-18 PORT · STCLAR 66% → 68%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
314128.46402140010.516.5
313219.5790000010114
312424.33320040010.512.5
31011.0003700140010.51.5
3000–001410000
2000–000000000
3309.33302110031.56.5
36116.313000200006
3001.000821810002
2011-1.000000200000
Team totals49999.404476439516475
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
312633.1820218000014
38317.29400002010.58.5
36117.29400000010.56.5
3508.62500000010.55.5
3112.000330180010.51.5
3000–000200000
34214.143122210006
3000–110500001
3000–002520000
1005.000000100000
Team totals361396.240355631604255

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Santa Clara vs Portland

Season series · Santa Clara leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 6 STCLAR · PORT 3

Set 1

25-19

Longest run 4 STCLARPORT 3

Set 2

25-15

Longest run 6 STCLARPORT 2

Set 3

25-21

Longest run 5 STCLARPORT 3

Bars above the line = Portland leads, below = Santa Clara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Santa Clara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%5/10
43%3/7
2
100%5/5
62%8/13
3
80%4/5
43%3/7
4
80%4/5
56%5/9
5
80%4/5
0%0/4
6
80%4/5
56%5/9
All
74%26/35
49%24/49

Portland

SlotSideout %Break %
1
45%5/11
33%2/6
2
56%5/9
38%3/8
3
50%4/8
0%0/5
4
57%4/7
20%1/5
5
57%4/7
33%2/6
6
43%3/7
20%1/5
All
51%25/49
26%9/35

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (2 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

130 rallies

#STCLAR-PORTSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0STCLARSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.6
21-1STCLARPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
31-2PORTPORTAcePortlandaced Ashlynn Reilly+2.6
42-2PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+1.8
53-2STCLARSTCLARAttack errVanessa Haddock+2.7
63-3STCLARPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
74-3PORTSTCLARServe errPortland+1.9
84-4STCLARPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+1.9
94-5PORTPORTAttack errAllison Dzieciuch+2.8
105-5PORTSTCLAR×4KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
116-5STCLARSTCLAR×4KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.9
127-5STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+2.9
138-5STCLARSTCLAR×4AceSanta Clara+2.7
148-6STCLARPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.7
158-7PORTPORTAcePortland+2.8
169-7PORTSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
179-8STCLARPORTKillHavannah Hoeftset Jeryn Hildenbrand+2.0
1810-8PORTSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
1910-9STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.0
2011-9PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.2
2111-10STCLARPORT×3KillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.1
2211-11PORTPORT×3KillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+3.3
2311-12PORTPORT×3Attack errMorgan Hayes+3.5
2412-12PORTSTCLARServe errPortland+2.4
2512-13STCLARPORTAttack errMorgan Hayes+2.5
2613-13PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
2713-14STCLARPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.6
2814-14PORTSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+2.6
2914-15STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.7
3015-15PORTSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Morgan Hayes+2.7
3115-16STCLARPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+2.9
3216-16PORTSTCLAR×3KillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+2.8
3317-16STCLARSTCLAR×3Attack errKalaweloilehua Chock+4.4
3418-16STCLARSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+4.3
3518-17STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.6
3619-17PORTSTCLARAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+3.1
3719-18STCLARPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+2.8
3820-18PORTSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+3.4
3921-18STCLARSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+4.1
4022-18STCLARSTCLAR×3KillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.9
4122-19STCLARPORTKillVanessa Haddockset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
4223-19PORTSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.9
4324-19STCLARSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
4425-19STCLARSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
Set 2
10-1PORTPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
20-2PORTPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+2.5
31-2PORTSTCLAR×6BlockedEliot Diehl Palmerblk Cate Shanahan, Grace Flanagan+1.7
42-2STCLARSTCLAR×6AceSanta Claraaced Eliot Diehl Palmer+2.6
53-2STCLARSTCLAR×6AceSanta Claraaced Eliot Diehl Palmer+2.6
64-2STCLARSTCLAR×6Attack errEliot Diehl Palmer+2.6
75-2STCLARSTCLAR×6KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.5
86-2STCLARSTCLAR×6KillCate Shanahanset Morgan Hayes+2.3
96-3STCLARPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
107-3PORTSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.6
117-4STCLARPORTKillShaylee Stephenset Havannah Hoeft+1.4
128-4PORTSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.6
139-4STCLARSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
149-5STCLARPORTServe errSanta Clara+1.2
1510-5PORTSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
1610-6STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Vanessa Haddock+1.2
1711-6PORTSTCLARBlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Grace Flanagan, Morgan Hayes+1.5
1811-7STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
1911-8PORTPORTAttack errMorgan Hayes+2.1
2012-8PORTSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw+1.8
2113-8STCLARSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
2213-9STCLARPORTServe errSanta Clara+1.2
2314-9PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
2414-10STCLARPORTServe errSanta Clara+1.2
2515-10PORTSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.5
2616-10STCLARSTCLARAttack errEliot Diehl Palmer+1.6
2716-11STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.8
2817-11PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
2918-11STCLARSTCLARBlockedTaina Kaauwaiblk Allison Dzieciuch+1.1
3018-12STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.4
3119-12PORTSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+0.7
3219-13STCLARPORTServe errSanta Clara+0.4
3319-14PORTPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.9
3420-14PORTSTCLAR×4Serve errPortland+0.9
3521-14STCLARSTCLAR×4KillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+0.8
3622-14STCLARSTCLAR×4KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+0.3
3723-14STCLARSTCLAR×4BlockedKalaweloilehua Chockblk Macy Hinshaw, Grace Flanagan+0.1
3823-15STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft·
3924-15PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw·
4025-15STCLARSTCLARKillGrace Flanaganset Macy Hinshaw·
Set 3
10-1STCLARPORTAttack errMorgan Hayes+1.1
21-1PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.1
32-1STCLARSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Lexi Trapani+1.6
42-2STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
53-2PORTSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
64-2STCLAR
NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy?

The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.

+1.7
74-3STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.1
84-4PORTPORTAcePortland+1.7
95-4PORTSTCLARKillMorgan Hayesset Macy Hinshaw+1.2
105-5STCLARPORT×3KillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+1.2
115-6PORTPORT×3AcePortlandaced Lexi Trapani+1.8
125-7PORTPORT×3KillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.8
136-7PORTSTCLARServe errPortland+1.2
147-7STCLARSTCLARKillMacy Hinshawset Kalaweloilehua Chock+1.9
157-8STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
168-8PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.3
179-8STCLARSTCLARAttack errHavannah Hoeft+2.0
189-9STCLARPORTAttack errAllison Dzieciuch+1.3
199-10PORTPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+2.0
2010-10PORTSTCLARServe errPortland+1.4
2110-11STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
2210-12PORTPORTAcePortland+2.1
2311-12PORTSTCLAR×3KillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+1.4
2412-12STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Tinoa Woodward-Hart+2.2
2513-12STCLARSTCLAR×3AceSanta Claraaced Tinoa Woodward-Hart+2.3
2613-13STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.5
2714-13PORTSTCLAR×5Serve errPortland+1.6
2815-13STCLARSTCLAR×5AceSanta Claraaced Vanessa Haddock+2.3
2916-13STCLARSTCLAR×5KillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+2.1
3017-13STCLARSTCLAR×5Bad setTinoa Woodward-Hart+1.8
3118-13STCLARSTCLAR×5Attack errVanessa Haddock+1.4
3218-14STCLARPORTKillTaina Kaauwaiset Havannah Hoeft+0.6
3318-15PORTPORTBlockedSelin Aslayanblk Havannah Hoeft, Taina Kaauwai+1.4
3419-15PORTSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Lexi Trapani+1.3
3520-15STCLARSTCLARKillSelin Aslayanset Macy Hinshaw+1.3
3620-16STCLARPORTBad setMacy Hinshaw+0.5
3720-17PORTPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+1.3
3821-17PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Macy Hinshaw+1.3
3922-17STCLARSTCLARAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+1.1
4022-18STCLARPORTAttack errCate Shanahan+0.4
4123-18PORTSTCLARAttack errKalaweloilehua Chock+0.7
4223-19STCLARPORTKillKalaweloilehua Chockset Havannah Hoeft+0.3
4324-19PORTSTCLARKillAllison Dzieciuchset Macy Hinshaw+0.5
4424-20STCLARPORTKillEliot Diehl Palmerset Havannah Hoeft+0.1
4524-21PORTPORTBlockedTia Kapiheblk Shaylee Stephen, Eliot Diehl Palmer+0.4
4625-21PORTSTCLARKillCate Shanahanset Lexi Trapani+0.7

Score shown after each rally, Santa Clara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).