Final · 4 setsSat, Oct 10, 2026Watch on NEC Front Row

Mercyhurst def. Stonehill 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Mercyhurst 59.5% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 10, 11:56 AM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Mercyhurst won at Stonehill 3-1 (25-20, 25-20, 23-25, 25-9) on Sat, Oct 10, 2026. Mercyhurst's Julia Shepherd led with 15 kills, and Kelsie Gaiter-Davis added 16 digs.

Data through · final Oct 10

Set1234Sets
MERCYH252523253
STONEH20202591

Match story · written from the play-by-play

An 8–0 run in the fourth set broke it open for Mercyhurst.

Win probability never moved more than 5.8 points on one rally; Stonehill topped out at 43% in Set 1. Mercyhurst went in as RallyIQ's 59% pick.

MercyhurstStonehill
  • Break %+14.9 pts
    53.638.7

    On serve: 52/97 against 29/75 (Stonehill sideout 46.4%).

  • Hitting+.152
    .221.069

    52 K / 21 E against 39 K / 30 E.

  • Longest run+2
    86

    8 straight Mercyhurst points in the fourth set stretched a 12–5 lead to 20–5. Final score of the set: 25–9.

Stonehill above 50Mercyhurst belowMax swing 5.8%

MercyhurstStonehill

Aces
Mercyhurst 9·Stonehill 3
Serve err
Mercyhurst 11·Stonehill 4
Blocks
Mercyhurst 11·Stonehill 92 BS · 18 BA vs 0 BS · 18 BA
Digs
Mercyhurst 58·Stonehill 59

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Stonehill above 50 · Mercyhurst below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+5.8% STONEHrally 172 · set 4

Biggest swing: 5.8% to Stonehill — set 3, MERCYH 23-25 STONEH. Stonehill ace on Sydney Forcht. STONEH win probability 15% → 21%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MERCYH 61.9%38.1% STONEH

Mercyhurst wins

3-0
18.2%
3-1
23.7%
3-2
20.0%

Stonehill wins

3-0
8.1%
3-1
13.8%
3-2
16.2%
MERCYH break %
45.4% vs this opp
STONEH break %
43.0% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    StonehillAce+5.8%

    Stonehill ace on Sydney Forcht

    Set 3 · MERCYH 23-25 STONEH · STONEH 15% → 21%

  2. 02
    Roslyn GuerraAttack error+5.6%

    Attack error by Roslyn Guerra

    Set 3 · MERCYH 23-24 STONEH · STONEH 9% → 15%

  3. 03
    Haley HerndonKill+4.1%

    Kill by Haley Herndon (set by Kendra Sawyer)

    Set 3 · MERCYH 23-23 STONEH · STONEH 5% → 9%

  4. 04
    MercyhurstAce+3.8%

    Mercyhurst ace on Kristina Bishop

    Set 1 · MERCYH 21-18 STONEH · MERCYH 67% → 71%

  5. 05
    StonehillAce+3.5%

    Stonehill ace on Kelsie Gaiter-Davis

    Set 1 · MERCYH 18-17 STONEH · STONEH 33% → 37%

  6. 06

    Haley Herndon stuffed by Roslyn Guerra & Ava Carney

    Set 1 · MERCYH 20-18 STONEH · MERCYH 63% → 67%

  7. 07
    Samantha LoydAttack error+3.4%

    Attack error by Samantha Loyd

    Set 3 · MERCYH 23-21 STONEH · MERCYH 93% → 97%

  8. 08

    Sammy Franco stuffed by Payton Melin & Mia Mattingly

    Set 2 · MERCYH 17-15 STONEH · MERCYH 78% → 82%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415431.3551003002116
49015.6000022016413
48416.25000000031.59.5
47324.167010500219
44316.063011800005
4002.00030131100001
47524.08300000132.59.5
4001.000932600003
4000–333610003
4000–3001620000
3214.250000100002
2017-.143000000211
Team totals5221140.221469115832181198
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
412629.20700014100012
410224.3330003004212
46213.308000000639
42616-.250000010002
4001.0001910900001
2125-.200012100213
4003.000000700000
4000–000000000
4000–1011410000
32615-.267000210213
3000–1300500000
25112.333000030216
2116.00001110010.52.5
1047-.57100000010.50.5
1000–500300000
1000–000000000
Team totals3930131.0693834599018974

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Mercyhurst vs Stonehill

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 MERCYH · STONEH 6

Set 1

25-20

Longest run 3 MERCYHSTONEH 3

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 6 MERCYHSTONEH 4

Set 3

23-25

Longest run 4 MERCYHSTONEH 6

Set 4

25-9

Longest run 8 MERCYHSTONEH 3

Bars above the line = Stonehill leads, below = Mercyhurst leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Mercyhurst

SlotSideout %Break %
1
50%9/18
60%12/20
2
50%8/16
43%6/14
3
100%8/8
43%6/14
4
88%7/8
71%17/24
5
50%7/14
46%6/13
6
64%7/11
42%5/12
All
61%46/75
54%52/97

Stonehill

SlotSideout %Break %
1
38%9/24
38%5/13
2
67%8/12
57%12/21
3
44%7/16
11%1/9
4
30%7/23
13%1/8
5
50%7/14
36%4/11
6
88%7/8
46%6/13
All
46%45/97
39%29/75

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

172 rallies

#MERCYH-STONEHSrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1STONEHSTONEHBlockedAva Carneyblk Haley Herndon, Annabelle Svenson+2.4
21-1STONEHMERCYHAttack errAddy Frye+1.9
32-1MERCYHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+2.4
42-2MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.9
52-3STONEHSTONEHAttack errAva Carney+2.5
63-3STONEHMERCYH×3KillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+1.9
74-3MERCYHMERCYH×3KillMadison Miner+2.5
85-3MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errSamantha Loyd+2.4
95-4MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.9
106-4STONEHMERCYH×3BlockedSamantha Loydblk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney+1.9
117-4MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurst+2.3
128-4MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Samantha Loyd+2.1
138-5MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.5
149-5STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.7
159-6MERCYHSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Rosa Smith+1.5
1610-6STONEHMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+1.7
1710-7MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+1.6
1810-8STONEHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+2.3
1911-8STONEHMERCYHBlockedAddy Fryeblk Payton Melin, Mia Mattingly+2.0
2011-9MERCYHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Rosa Smith+1.9
2112-9STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Sydney Forcht+2.1
2212-10MERCYHSTONEHAttack errRoslyn Guerra+1.9
2313-10STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.1
2413-11MERCYHSTONEHKillSamantha Loydset Kendra Sawyer+2.0
2514-11STONEHMERCYHBad setKendra Sawyer+2.2
2614-12MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+2.0
2715-12STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.3
2816-12MERCYHMERCYHKillMia Mattingly+2.5
2916-13MERCYHSTONEH×3Attack errAnna Logan+1.6
3016-14STONEHSTONEH×3KillSammy Francoset Rosa Smith+2.7
3116-15STONEHSTONEH×3KillAddy Fryeset Kristina Bishop+3.2
3217-15STONEHMERCYHAttack errSammy Franco+2.9
3318-15MERCYHMERCYHAttack errAbby Farrell+3.3
3418-16MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+2.2
3518-17STONEHSTONEHAceStonehillaced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+3.5
3619-17STONEHMERCYHServe errStonehill+3.2
3719-18MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+2.9
3820-18STONEHMERCYHBlockedHaley Herndonblk Roslyn Guerra, Ava Carney+3.5
3921-18MERCYHMERCYHAceMercyhurstaced Kristina Bishop+3.8
4021-19MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Kendra Sawyer+2.2
4122-19STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+3.1
4222-20MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+2.2
4323-20STONEHMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+3.3
4424-20MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errSamantha Loyd+2.4
4525-20MERCYHMERCYH×3KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+0.7
Set 2
11-0MERCYHMERCYH×5KillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+2.1
22-0MERCYHMERCYH×5KillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+2.1
33-0MERCYHMERCYH×5KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.9
44-0MERCYHMERCYH×5BlockedAddy Fryeblk Julia Shepherd, Ava Carney+1.8
55-0MERCYHMERCYH×5KillJulia Shepherdset Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+1.6
65-1MERCYHSTONEH×4Serve errMercyhurst+1.1
75-2STONEHSTONEH×4BlockedAnna Loganblk Haley Herndon, Annabelle Svenson+1.7
85-3STONEHSTONEH×4BlockedAnna Loganblk Haley Herndon, Annabelle Svenson+1.9
95-4STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errMadison Miner+2.1
106-4STONEHMERCYHKillAnna Loganset Sydney Forcht+1.8
116-5MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.7
127-5STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.8
138-5MERCYHMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Alyssa Krause+2.2
148-6MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.6
159-6STONEHMERCYHBlockedSammy Francoblk Madison Miner, Mia Mattingly+1.7
169-7MERCYHSTONEHKillAbby Farrellset Rosa Smith+1.6
1710-7STONEHMERCYHKillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+1.8
1810-8MERCYHSTONEH×3BlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Sammy Franco, Abby Farrell+1.7
1910-9STONEHSTONEH×3KillAddy Fryeset Rosa Smith+2.4
2010-10STONEHSTONEH×3Attack errPayton Melin+2.7
2111-10STONEHMERCYHBlockedSammy Francoblk Roslyn Guerra, Mia Mattingly+2.2
2211-11MERCYHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Rosa Smith+2.2
2312-11STONEHMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Mya Comer+2.2
2412-12MERCYHSTONEHAttack errRoslyn Guerra+2.3
2513-12STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+2.3
2614-12MERCYHMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+2.9
2714-13MERCYHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Kendra Sawyer+2.2
2814-14STONEHSTONEHAttack errJulia Shepherd+3.1
2915-14STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.5
3015-15MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+2.6
3116-15STONEHMERCYH×6KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.7
3217-15MERCYHMERCYH×6BlockedSammy Francoblk Payton Melin, Mia Mattingly+3.3
3318-15MERCYHMERCYH×6Attack errSamantha Loyd+3.0
3419-15MERCYHMERCYH×6BlockedSamantha Loydblk Madison Miner, Mia Mattingly+2.4
3520-15MERCYHMERCYH×6BlockedAbby Farrellblk Mia Mattingly+1.8
3621-15MERCYHMERCYH×6Attack errSammy Franco+1.1
3721-16MERCYHSTONEHKillSammy Francoset Rosa Smith+0.5
3822-16STONEHMERCYHKillMadison Minerset Mya Comer+0.8
3922-17MERCYHSTONEHBlockedRoslyn Guerrablk Sammy Franco, Abby Farrell+0.4
4023-17STONEHMERCYHServe errStonehill+0.6
4123-18MERCYHSTONEHAttack errErin Robbins+0.2
4223-19STONEHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+0.6
4324-19STONEHMERCYHAttack errHaley Herndon+0.9
4424-20MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Kendra Sawyer+0.2
4525-20STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+0.5
Set 3
11-0STONEHMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+1.0
22-0MERCYHMERCYHKillAnna Loganset Alyssa Krause+1.3
32-1MERCYHSTONEH×6KillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.0
42-2STONEHSTONEH×6BlockedAva Carneyblk Kaisa Dowd, Annabelle Svenson+1.3
52-3STONEHSTONEH×6KillKaisa Dowdset Kendra Sawyer+1.4
62-4STONEHSTONEH×6KillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.4
72-5STONEHSTONEH×6Attack errAva Carney+1.4
82-6STONEHSTONEH×6BlockedJulia Shepherdblk Haley Herndon, Annabelle Svenson+1.4
93-6STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.0
103-7MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.1
114-7STONEHMERCYHServe errStonehill+1.0
124-8MERCYHSTONEHKillKaisa Dowdset Kendra Sawyer+1.1
135-8STONEHMERCYHKillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+1.0
145-9MERCYHSTONEHAttack errMadison Miner+1.1
155-10STONEHSTONEHBlockedMadison Minerblk Reegan Mishkin, Mia Crowley+1.3
166-10STONEHMERCYH×3KillMia Mattinglyset Mya Comer+0.9
177-10MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedMia Crowleyblk Roslyn Guerra+1.3
188-10MERCYHMERCYH×3AceMercyhurstaced Addy Frye+1.4
198-11MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Casey McDermott+1.3
209-11STONEHMERCYHAttack errAnnabelle Svenson+1.2
219-12MERCYHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Casey McDermott+1.3
2210-12STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer+1.2
2311-12MERCYHMERCYHAttack errAddy Frye+1.7
2411-13MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.5
2511-14STONEHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svenson+1.8
2612-14STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Alyssa Krause+1.2
2712-15MERCYHSTONEHKillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+1.5
2813-15STONEHMERCYHKillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+1.3
2914-15MERCYHMERCYHAceMercyhurstaced Kaisa Dowd+1.9
3014-16MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.7
3114-17STONEHSTONEHKillKaisa Dowdset Casey McDermott+2.0
3215-17STONEHMERCYH×4KillMia Mattinglyset Alyssa Krause+1.3
3316-17MERCYHMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+2.0
3417-17MERCYHMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Mya Comer+2.3
3518-17MERCYHMERCYH×4Attack errKaisa Dowd+2.4
3618-18MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst+1.9
3718-19STONEHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Casey McDermott+2.7
3819-19STONEHMERCYH×3Attack errMia Crowley+2.0
3920-19MERCYHMERCYH×3BlockedMia Crowleyblk Roslyn Guerra, Mia Mattingly+2.8
4021-19MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errMia Crowley+2.7
4121-20MERCYHSTONEHKillAddy Fryeset Casey McDermott+1.8
4221-21STONEHSTONEHAceStonehillaced Kelsie Gaiter-Davis+3.1
4322-21STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer+2.8
4423-21MERCYHMERCYHAttack errSamantha Loyd+3.4
4523-22MERCYHSTONEH×4Serve errMercyhurst+2.0
4623-23STONEHSTONEH×4KillHaley Herndonset Kendra Sawyer+4.1
4723-24STONEHSTONEH×4Attack errRoslyn Guerra+5.6
4823-25STONEHSTONEH×4AceStonehillaced Sydney Forcht+5.8
Set 4
11-0MERCYHMERCYH×6Attack errAddy Frye+2.9
22-0MERCYHMERCYH×6Bad setKendra Sawyer+2.8
33-0MERCYHMERCYH×6KillJulia Shepherdset Alyssa Krause+2.7
44-0MERCYHMERCYH×6KillAva Carneyset Alyssa Krause+2.5
55-0MERCYHMERCYH×6Attack errAnnabelle Svenson+2.2
66-0MERCYHMERCYH×6KillAnna Loganset Julia Shepherd+1.9
76-1MERCYHSTONEH×3KillAddy Fryeset Kendra Sawyer+1.3
86-2STONEHSTONEH×3Attack errJulia Shepherd+2.0
96-3STONEHSTONEH×3KillKaisa Dowdset Kendra Sawyer+2.3
107-3STONEHMERCYHKillAnna Loganset Alyssa Krause+2.0
118-3MERCYHMERCYHAceMercyhurst+2.3
128-4MERCYHSTONEHBlockedJulia Shepherdblk Kaisa Dowd, Annabelle Svenson+1.6
139-4STONEHMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+1.8
1410-4MERCYHMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Sydney Forcht+1.9
1511-4MERCYHMERCYH×4KillMia Mattinglyset Alyssa Krause+1.6
1612-4MERCYHMERCYH×4KillMadison Minerset Alyssa Krause+1.2
1712-5MERCYHSTONEHKillKaisa Dowdset Kendra Sawyer+0.7
1813-5STONEHMERCYH×8KillMia Mattinglyset Alyssa Krause+0.9
1914-5MERCYHMERCYH×8KillErin Robbinsset Mya Comer+0.8
2015-5MERCYHMERCYH×8Attack errReegan Mishkin+0.5
2116-5MERCYHMERCYH×8Attack errAddy Frye+0.3
2217-5MERCYHMERCYH×8AceMercyhurstaced Kaisa Dowd+0.2
2318-5MERCYHMERCYH×8AceMercyhurstaced Kaisa Dowd+0.1
2419-5MERCYHMERCYH×8AceMercyhurstaced Sammy Franco·
2520-5MERCYHMERCYH×8Bad setRosa Smith·
2620-6MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst·
2721-6STONEHMERCYH×3KillMia Mattinglyset Rosa Smith·
2822-6MERCYHMERCYH×3Attack errSammy Franco·
2923-6MERCYHMERCYH×3KillErin Robbins·
3023-7MERCYHSTONEHKillReegan Mishkinset Rosa Smith·
3123-8STONEHSTONEHKillAnnabelle Svensonset Rosa Smith·
3224-8STONEHMERCYHServe errStonehill·
3324-9MERCYHSTONEHServe errMercyhurst·
3425-9STONEHMERCYHKillRoslyn Guerraset Mya Comer·

Score shown after each rally, Mercyhurst first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).