Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 23, 2026Watch on SienaSaints.com

Siena def. Niagara 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Siena 94.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 23, 4:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Siena beat visiting Niagara 3-1 (18-25, 25-21, 25-17, 25-19) on Fri, Oct 23, 2026. Gabrielle Wire led Siena with 16 kills; Niagara's Karlotta Kattai had a match-high 20.

Data through · final Oct 23

Set1234Sets
NIAGRA252117191
SIENA182525253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Autumn Willmott served 4 aces, and Siena needed every one.

2 stretches decided it. Percentages are Siena's RallyIQ win probability before and after each. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Siena at 95%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 2 · Niagara 17–13 Siena

    Down 13–17, Siena scored 5 straight to lead 18–17.

    Siena 64% → 82%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 2 · Niagara 20–19 Siena

    Siena scored 4 straight to turn a 19–20 deficit into a 23–20 lead.

    Siena 73% → 88%

Siena above 50Niagara belowMax swing 4.8%

NiagaraSiena

Sideout %
Niagara 50.0·Siena 56.6
Break %
Niagara 43.4·Siena 50.0
Hitting
Niagara .204·Siena .296
Longest run
Niagara 8·Siena 6

Gabrielle Wire
3 of her kills came in the stretches above. 16 K, .306, 16.5 points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Siena above 50 · Niagara below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+4.8% NIAGRArally 175 · set 4

Biggest swing: 4.8% to Niagara — set 2, NIAGRA 19-18 SIENA. Kill by Taylor Jenkins (set by Noel Perkins). SIENA win probability 79% → 74%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

NIAGRA 4.8%95.2% SIENA

Niagara wins

3-0
0.5%
3-1
1.3%
3-2
2.9%

Siena wins

3-0
56.1%
3-1
29.5%
3-2
9.6%
NIAGRA break %
38.0% vs this opp
SIENA break %
50.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Taylor Jenkins (set by Noel Perkins)

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 19-18 SIENA · NIAGRA 21% → 26%

  2. 02

    Kill by Gabrielle Wire (set by Brianna Miller)

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 20-21 SIENA · SIENA 77% → 81%

  3. 03

    Ace by Karlotta Kattai on Brooke Malek

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 17-13 SIENA · NIAGRA 31% → 36%

  4. 04

    Gabrielle Wire stuffed by Taylor Jenkins & Kadence Goolsby

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 20-19 SIENA · NIAGRA 23% → 27%

  5. 05

    Kill by Alison Goldberg (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 20-22 SIENA · SIENA 81% → 85%

  6. 06

    Ace by Taylor Jenkins

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 14-11 SIENA · NIAGRA 26% → 29%

  7. 07
    Abby EdwardsKill+3.8%

    Kill by Abby Edwards (set by Noel Perkins)

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 17-16 SIENA · SIENA 70% → 74%

  8. 08

    Kill by Gabrielle Wire (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 2 · NIAGRA 17-17 SIENA · SIENA 74% → 78%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
420746.28335512202126
4709.77802040153.512.5
47433.091300920218
45525.000200300216
4206.3331842800006
4317.286200000425
46417.11800010031.57.5
4103.3333011820001
4000–1601200000
2001.000000300000
Team totals5121147.204471196071181082
Sienahome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
416536.30600021010.516.5
412543.16301111000013
412225.40010091010.512.5
47113.46200010111.58.5
4509.556200000216
4216.1674111150010.53.5
4001.0001411100004
4002.0005101760001
4000–000100000
Team totals5414135.2965073671116493

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Niagara vs Siena

Season series · Siena leads 1-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 8 NIAGRA · SIENA 6

Set 1

25-18

Longest run 8 NIAGRASIENA 5

Set 2

21-25

Longest run 3 NIAGRASIENA 5

Set 3

17-25

Longest run 2 NIAGRASIENA 4

Set 4

19-25

Longest run 6 NIAGRASIENA 6

Bars above the line = Siena leads, below = Niagara leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Niagara

SlotSideout %Break %
1
40%8/20
61%14/23
2
57%8/14
33%4/12
3
47%8/17
27%3/11
4
44%8/18
47%7/15
5
78%7/9
42%5/12
6
50%7/14
30%3/10
All
50%46/92
43%36/83

Siena

SlotSideout %Break %
1
43%9/21
36%4/11
2
89%8/9
60%12/20
3
67%8/12
53%9/17
4
57%8/14
53%9/17
5
54%7/13
43%6/14
6
50%7/14
46%6/13
All
57%47/83
50%46/92

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

175 rallies

#NIAGRA-SIENASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1NIAGRASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.4
20-2SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Ashley Moreland+0.5
30-3SIENASIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Alison Goldberg+0.4
41-3SIENANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.3
51-4NIAGRASIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.3
62-4SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.4
72-5NIAGRASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.3
82-6SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.4
92-7SIENASIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+0.3
103-7SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.2
113-8NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.2
124-8SIENANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+0.2
135-8NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceKarlotta Kattai+0.4
146-8NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceKarlotta Kattaiaced Brooke Malek+0.5
156-9NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
167-9SIENANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.4
178-9NIAGRANIAGRABlockedGabrielle Wireblk Kadence Goolsby, Taylor Jenkins+0.7
188-10NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.5
199-10SIENANIAGRA×8KillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+0.6
2010-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8AcePaisley Ka’ahanui+0.9
2111-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.1
2212-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8BlockedGabrielle Wireblk Taylor Jenkins, Payton Lee+1.3
2313-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8AcePaisley Ka’ahanuiaced Gabrielle Wire+1.4
2414-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8KillPaisley Ka’ahanuiset Abby Edwards+1.5
2515-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8KillAshley Morelandset Payton Lee+1.5
2616-10NIAGRANIAGRA×8KillTaylor Jenkinsset Payton Lee+1.3
2716-11NIAGRASIENA×5KillGabrielle Wireset Alison Goldberg+0.7
2816-12SIENASIENA×5KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.1
2916-13SIENASIENA×5KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.2
3016-14SIENASIENA×5KillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+1.3
3116-15SIENASIENA×5AceSienaaced Karlotta Kattai+1.4
3217-15SIENANIAGRAKillPaisley Ka’ahanui+1.4
3317-16NIAGRASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.1
3418-16SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.5
3518-17NIAGRASIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.2
3619-17SIENANIAGRA×5Serve errSiena+1.6
3720-17NIAGRANIAGRA×5BlockedMaggie Seymourblk Karlotta Kattai, Jakayla Brown+2.1
3821-17NIAGRANIAGRA×5Bad setAbby Edwards+1.9
3922-17NIAGRANIAGRA×5BlockedBrianna Millerblk Kadence Goolsby, Jakayla Brown+1.5
4023-17NIAGRANIAGRA×5KillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.9
4123-18NIAGRASIENAServe errNoel Perkins+0.2
4224-18SIENANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Karlotta Kattai+0.5
4325-18NIAGRANIAGRAAceKarlotta Kattaiaced Brooke Malek+0.2
Set 2
11-0SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.5
22-0NIAGRANIAGRAAceTaylor Jenkinsaced Brooke Malek+2.1
32-1NIAGRASIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.5
42-2SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Katelynn Rottman+1.8
52-3SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.6
63-3SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Katelynn Rottman+1.4
74-3NIAGRANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Katelynn Rottman+2.1
84-4NIAGRASIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.4
94-5SIENASIENAAttack errKadence Goolsby+1.7
105-5SIENANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+1.5
116-5NIAGRANIAGRAAttack errAbby Edwards+2.2
126-6NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.6
137-6SIENANIAGRABlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Jakayla Brown, Katelynn Rottman+1.9
147-7NIAGRASIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.6
158-7SIENANIAGRA×3KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+2.0
169-7NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+2.8
1710-7NIAGRANIAGRA×3BlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Taylor Jenkins+3.2
1810-8NIAGRASIENAServe errPaisley Ka’ahanui+2.1
1911-8SIENANIAGRAServe errSiena+2.7
2011-9NIAGRASIENA×3KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.1
2111-10SIENASIENA×3Bad setAshley Moreland+2.8
2211-11SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Katelynn Rottman+2.6
2312-11SIENANIAGRA×3Bad setAlison Goldberg+2.4
2413-11NIAGRANIAGRA×3KillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+3.5
2514-11NIAGRANIAGRA×3AceTaylor Jenkins+3.8
2614-12NIAGRASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.4
2715-12SIENANIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Jakayla Brown+3.2
2815-13NIAGRASIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.5
2916-13SIENANIAGRABlockedBrianna Millerblk Jakayla Brown, Karlotta Kattai+3.4
3017-13NIAGRANIAGRAAceKarlotta Kattaiaced Brooke Malek+4.3
3117-14NIAGRASIENA×5Serve errKarlotta Kattai+2.4
3217-15SIENASIENA×5KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+3.6
3317-16SIENASIENA×5KillAbby Edwardsset Noel Perkins+3.8
3417-17SIENASIENA×5KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+3.8
3517-18SIENASIENA×5Attack errKatelynn Rottman+3.5
3618-18SIENANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Noel Perkins+3.0
3719-18NIAGRANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+4.8
3819-19NIAGRASIENAAttack errKarlotta Kattai+3.4
3920-19SIENANIAGRABlockedGabrielle Wireblk Taylor Jenkins, Kadence Goolsby+4.3
4020-20NIAGRASIENA×4KillAlison Goldbergset Paisley Ka’ahanui+3.7
4120-21SIENASIENA×4KillGabrielle Wireset Brianna Miller+4.8
4220-22SIENASIENA×4KillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+4.0
4320-23SIENASIENA×4BlockedPayton Leeblk Alison Goldberg, Gabrielle Wire+2.7
4421-23SIENANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Brooke Malek+1.3
4521-24NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.1
4621-25SIENASIENAAceSienaaced Ashley Moreland+0.9
Set 3
11-0NIAGRANIAGRAAcePaisley Ka’ahanuiaced Brooke Malek+1.6
21-1NIAGRASIENA×3KillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+1.1
31-2SIENASIENA×3Attack errKatelynn Rottman+1.3
41-3SIENASIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.1
52-3SIENANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Paisley Ka’ahanui+1.0
62-4NIAGRASIENA×4KillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.9
72-5SIENASIENA×4KillAbby Edwardsset Brooke Malek+1.0
82-6SIENASIENA×4KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.8
92-7SIENASIENA×4Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.6
103-7SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
114-7NIAGRANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
124-8NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.7
134-9SIENASIENAAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.7
145-9SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.5
156-9NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brownset Noel Perkins+0.9
166-10NIAGRASIENA×4KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+0.7
176-11SIENASIENA×4KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.7
186-12SIENASIENA×4Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.5
196-13SIENASIENA×4BlockedKadence Goolsbyblk Abby Edwards, Alison Goldberg+0.4
207-13SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Ashley Moreland+0.2
218-13NIAGRANIAGRAAceKarlotta Kattaiaced Brianna Miller+0.4
228-14NIAGRASIENAServe errKarlotta Kattai+0.4
239-14SIENANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins+0.4
249-15NIAGRASIENAServe errAshley Moreland+0.4
2510-15SIENANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+0.3
2610-16NIAGRASIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.4
2710-17SIENASIENAAttack errKatelynn Rottman+0.3
2811-17SIENANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Ashley Moreland+0.2
2911-18NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.2
3012-18SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.2
3113-18NIAGRANIAGRAKillJakayla Brown+0.4
3213-19NIAGRASIENAAttack errPayton Lee+0.4
3314-19SIENANIAGRAAttack errMary Claire Deacy+0.3
3414-20NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
3514-21SIENASIENAAttack errKadence Goolsby+0.2
3615-21SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.1
3715-22NIAGRASIENAServe errKarlotta Kattai+0.2
3816-22SIENANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Karlotta Kattai+0.1
3916-23NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.1
4016-24SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards·
4117-24SIENANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins·
4217-25NIAGRASIENAServe errPaisley Ka’ahanui·
Set 4
11-0SIENANIAGRAServe errSiena+0.9
21-1NIAGRASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.8
31-2SIENASIENAAttack errKarlotta Kattai+0.9
42-2SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.8
52-3NIAGRASIENA×6Attack errPayton Lee+0.7
62-4SIENASIENA×6AceSiena+0.8
72-5SIENASIENA×6KillBrianna Millerset Autumn Willmott+0.7
82-6SIENASIENA×6Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.6
92-7SIENASIENA×6Attack errKarlotta Kattai+0.5
102-8SIENASIENA×6KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.3
113-8SIENANIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.2
123-9NIAGRASIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+0.3
133-10SIENASIENA×3KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.2
143-11SIENASIENA×3BlockedJakayla Brownblk Maggie Seymour+0.2
154-11SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Jakayla Brown+0.1
164-12NIAGRASIENAServe errKarlotta Kattai+0.1
174-13SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.1
185-13SIENANIAGRAKillKatelynn Rottmanset Karlotta Kattai+0.1
195-14NIAGRASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.1
206-14SIENANIAGRAKillTaylor Jenkinsset Noel Perkins+0.1
217-14NIAGRANIAGRAAcePaisley Ka’ahanuiaced Brooke Malek+0.1
227-15NIAGRASIENABad setKarlotta Kattai+0.1
238-15SIENANIAGRAKillPayton Leeset Katelynn Rottman+0.1
249-15NIAGRANIAGRABad setAbby Edwards+0.2
259-16NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.2
2610-16SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
2710-17NIAGRASIENABlockedPayton Leeblk Brianna Miller, Maggie Seymour+0.2
2811-17SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Paisley Ka’ahanui+0.1
2911-18NIAGRASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Brooke Malek+0.2
3012-18SIENANIAGRAKillKarlotta Kattaiset Noel Perkins+0.1
3112-19NIAGRASIENAServe errKarlotta Kattai+0.2
3212-20SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.1
3313-20SIENANIAGRAKillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3413-21NIAGRASIENA×4KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.1
3513-22SIENASIENA×4Attack errKatelynn Rottman·
3613-23SIENASIENA×4AceSienaaced Karlotta Kattai·
3713-24SIENASIENA×4Attack errKadence Goolsby·
3814-24SIENANIAGRA×6KillKadence Goolsbyset Noel Perkins·
3915-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6Attack errMary Claire Deacy·
4016-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6BlockedGabrielle Wireblk Payton Lee, Taylor Jenkins·
4117-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6KillKatelynn Rottmanset Paisley Ka’ahanui·
4218-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6BlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Taylor Jenkins, Katelynn Rottman·
4319-24NIAGRANIAGRA×6Attack errGabrielle Wire·
4419-25NIAGRASIENAAttack errPayton Lee+0.1

Score shown after each rally, Niagara first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).