Holy Cross def. Siena 3–1
(25-16, 25-27, 25-17, 25-19)| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4* | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOLYCR | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
| SIENA | 16 | 27 | 17 | 19 | 1 |
- * Set 4: the NCAA play-by-play has a gap or score correction here, so this set is left out of the rotation splits.
RallyIQ model
Win probability
Biggest swing: 9.7% to Siena — set 2, HOLYCR 25-27 SIENA. Sarahya College stuffed by Alison Goldberg. SIENA win probability 37% → 47%.
Before first serve
Pre-match
Holy Cross wins
Siena wins
- HOLYCR break %
- 44.1% vs this opp
- SIENA break %
- 43.4% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Largest win-probability swings
Top plays
- 01Sarahya CollegeAttack error+9.7%
Sarahya College stuffed by Alison Goldberg
Set 2 · HOLYCR 25-27 SIENA · SIENA 37% → 47%
- 02Emma SorensenAttack error+9.6%
Emma Sorensen stuffed by Alison Goldberg
Set 2 · HOLYCR 25-26 SIENA · SIENA 28% → 37%
- 03Brianna MillerAttack error+9.4%
Brianna Miller stuffed by Sarahya College
Set 2 · HOLYCR 24-23 SIENA · HOLYCR 70% → 80%
- 04
- 05Mary Claire DeacyKill+7.3%
Kill by Mary Claire Deacy (set by Abby Edwards)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 24-24 SIENA · SIENA 20% → 28%
- 06Georgia MurphyKill+7.3%
Kill by Georgia Murphy (set by Drew Flanagan)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 25-24 SIENA · HOLYCR 72% → 80%
- 07Brianna MillerKill+7.3%
Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Alara Doganyuz)
Set 2 · HOLYCR 25-25 SIENA · SIENA 20% → 28%
- 08SIENA serverAce+6.1%
Siena ace on Team
Set 2 · HOLYCR 22-22 SIENA · SIENA 22% → 28%
Official NCAA box
Box score
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 14 | 4 | 48 | .208 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18 | |
| 4 | 10 | 6 | 32 | .125 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 13.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 2 | 9 | .444 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4.5 | 11.5 | |
| 4 | 7 | 3 | 13 | .308 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2.5 | 9.5 | |
| 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | .182 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.000 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 20 | 5 | 36 | .417 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 20.5 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | .750 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | .667 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| Team totals | 68 | 22 | 161 | .286 | 62 | 9 | 8 | 88 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 100 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 9 | 6 | 42 | .071 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | |
| 4 | 8 | 0 | 24 | .333 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 4 | 7 | 1 | 28 | .214 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 | .200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | .167 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | .000 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .200 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 22 | -.045 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | .250 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .500 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -.200 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team totals | 39 | 18 | 158 | .133 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 68 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 8 | 79 |
Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Point differential by rally
Momentum
Set 1
25-16
Set 2
25-27
Set 3
25-17
Set 4*
25-19
Bars above the line = Siena leads, below = Holy Cross leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Rotations
Holy Cross
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50%7/14 | 57%8/14 |
| 2 | 67%6/9 | 40%4/10 |
| 3 | 86%6/7 | 73%16/22 |
| 4 | 86%6/7 | 54%7/13 |
| 5 | 45%5/11 | 29%2/7 |
| 6 | 38%5/13 | 38%3/8 |
| All | 57%35/61 | 54%40/74 |
Siena
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50%7/14 | 53%8/15 |
| 2 | 29%6/21 | 45%5/11 |
| 3 | 50%6/12 | 14%1/7 |
| 4 | 56%5/9 | 14%1/7 |
| 5 | 71%5/7 | 38%3/8 |
| 6 | 45%5/11 | 62%8/13 |
| All | 46%34/74 | 43%26/61 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
179 rallies
Rally log
| # | HOLYCR-SIENA | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SIENA | SIENA | Ace | SIENA server | aced Georgia Murphy | +2.4 |
| 2 | 1-1 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Attack err | Abby Edwards | blk Emma Sorensen | +1.9 |
| 3 | 1-2 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Brooke Malek | set Abby Edwards | +1.9 |
| 4 | 2-2 | SIENA | HOLYCR×7 | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Georgia Murphy | +1.9 |
| 5 | 3-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.5 |
| 6 | 4-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Attack err | Mary Claire Deacy | +2.5 | |
| 7 | 5-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Isa Glover | +2.4 |
| 8 | 6-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Brianna Miller | +2.2 |
| 9 | 7-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Bad set | Abby Edwards | +2.0 | |
| 10 | 8-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×7 | Attack err | Maggie Seymour | +1.7 | |
| 11 | 8-3 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Abby Edwards | set Brooke Malek | +1.1 |
| 12 | 9-3 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Tuana Ozarpaci | set Elizabeth Hall | +1.3 |
| 13 | 9-4 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +1.1 | |
| 14 | 10-4 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.3 |
| 15 | 10-5 | HOLYCR | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +1.1 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +1.7 | |
| 17 | 10-7 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Ace | SIENA server | aced Team | +2.1 |
| 18 | 11-7 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Serve err | SIENA server | +1.9 | |
| 19 | 11-8 | HOLYCR | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +1.7 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +2.5 | |
| 21 | 11-10 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Kill | Doga Diraz | set Maggie Seymour | +2.9 |
| 22 | 12-10 | SIENA | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Nora Benjamins | set Keira Mullen | +2.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Alana Whitwell | +2.9 |
| 24 | 14-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Keira Mullen | +2.6 |
| 25 | 15-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Gabrielle Wire | +2.2 |
| 26 | 15-11 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Nora Benjamins | blk Maggie Seymour | +1.3 |
| 27 | 15-12 | SIENA | SIENA | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +2.2 |
| 28 | 16-12 | SIENA | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Keira Mullen | +2.1 |
| 29 | 17-12 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Team | +2.2 |
| 30 | 18-12 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Isa Glover | +1.6 |
| 31 | 18-13 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +0.8 | |
| 32 | 18-14 | SIENA | SIENA | Ace | SIENA server | aced Emma Sorensen | +1.6 |
| 33 | 19-14 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Serve err | SIENA server | +1.7 | |
| 34 | 20-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.5 |
| 35 | 20-15 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +0.7 |
| 36 | 21-15 | SIENA | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.0 |
| 37 | 22-15 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Isa Glover | +0.7 |
| 38 | 23-15 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Isa Glover | +0.3 |
| 39 | 24-15 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Alana Whitwell | +0.1 |
| 40 | 24-16 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +0.0 |
| 41 | 25-16 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.0 |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Natalia Clifford | +2.3 |
| 2 | 2-0 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Attack err | Doga Diraz | +2.3 | |
| 3 | 3-0 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Attack err | Brianna Miller | blk Sarahya College | +2.2 |
| 4 | 4-0 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Nora Benjamins | set Keira Mullen | +2.0 |
| 5 | 4-1 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Alara Doganyuz | set Alison Goldberg | +1.5 |
| 6 | 4-2 | SIENA | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Alara Doganyuz | +2.1 |
| 7 | 5-2 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Attack err | Doga Diraz | +1.8 | |
| 8 | 6-2 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Keira Mullen | set Alana Whitwell | +2.1 |
| 9 | 6-3 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.5 | |
| 10 | 6-4 | SIENA | SIENA | Attack err | Isa Glover | blk Maggie Seymour | +2.2 |
| 11 | 7-4 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Keira Mullen | +1.8 |
| 12 | 8-4 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.2 |
| 13 | 8-5 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Alara Doganyuz | +1.5 |
| 14 | 9-5 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Tuana Ozarpaci | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.7 |
| 15 | 10-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.0 |
| 16 | 10-6 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Mary Claire Deacy | +1.3 |
| 17 | 10-7 | SIENA | SIENA | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +2.0 |
| 18 | 11-7 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.8 |
| 19 | 11-8 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +1.6 |
| 20 | 11-9 | SIENA | SIENA | Kill | Natalia Clifford | set Mary Claire Deacy | +2.4 |
| 21 | 12-9 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Tuana Ozarpaci | set Maggie Seymour | +2.1 |
| 22 | 13-9 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Sarahya College | +2.4 |
| 23 | 13-10 | HOLYCR | SIENA×5 | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.6 | |
| 24 | 13-11 | SIENA | SIENA×5 | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Alara Doganyuz | +2.5 |
| 25 | 13-12 | SIENA | SIENA×5 | Bad set | Keira Mullen | +2.9 | |
| 26 | 13-13 | SIENA | SIENA×5 | Attack err | Nora Benjamins | blk Alison Goldberg | +3.2 |
| 27 | 13-14 | SIENA | SIENA×5 | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +3.4 | |
| 28 | 14-14 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Serve err | SIENA server | +2.6 | |
| 29 | 14-15 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Doga Diraz | set Alara Doganyuz | +2.8 |
| 30 | 15-15 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Serve err | SIENA server | +2.8 | |
| 31 | 15-16 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | blk Doga Diraz | +2.9 |
| 32 | 16-16 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Drew Flanagan | +2.9 |
| 33 | 17-16 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.9 |
| 34 | 17-17 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Doga Diraz | +3.1 |
| 35 | 17-18 | SIENA | SIENA | Ace | SIENA server | aced Georgia Murphy | +4.3 |
| 36 | 18-18 | SIENA | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.3 |
| 37 | 19-18 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Gabrielle Wire | +4.5 |
| 38 | 20-18 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Alana Whitwell | +4.4 |
| 39 | 20-19 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Brooke Malek | +3.0 |
| 40 | 21-19 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.7 |
| 41 | 22-19 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +4.0 |
| 42 | 22-20 | HOLYCR | SIENA×4 | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +2.1 |
| 43 | 22-21 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +4.3 | |
| 44 | 22-22 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Ace | SIENA server | aced Team | +6.1 |
| 45 | 22-23 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +7.5 | |
| 46 | 23-23 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +5.6 |
| 47 | 24-23 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Brianna Miller | blk Sarahya College | +9.4 |
| 48 | 24-24 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +7.3 |
| 49 | 25-24 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +7.3 |
| 50 | 25-25 | HOLYCR | SIENA×3 | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Alara Doganyuz | +7.3 |
| 51 | 25-26 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Alison Goldberg | +9.6 |
| 52 | 25-27 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Sarahya College | blk Alison Goldberg | +9.7 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | SIENA | SIENA | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | blk Doga Diraz | +3.3 |
| 2 | 1-1 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Nora Benjamins | set Keira Mullen | +2.5 |
| 3 | 2-1 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Attack err | Brianna Miller | blk Isa Glover, Sarahya College | +3.3 |
| 4 | 2-2 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Doga Diraz | set Natalia Clifford | +2.6 |
| 5 | 2-3 | SIENA | SIENA | Attack err | Isa Glover | +3.4 | |
| 6 | 3-3 | SIENA | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +2.6 |
| 7 | 4-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Alison Goldberg | blk Isa Glover | +3.4 |
| 8 | 5-3 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Brianna Miller | blk Kat Teepe, Isa Glover | +3.4 |
| 9 | 5-4 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Alara Doganyuz | +2.6 |
| 10 | 6-4 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.7 |
| 11 | 7-4 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Alana Whitwell | +3.3 |
| 12 | 7-5 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Doga Diraz | set Alara Doganyuz | +2.4 |
| 13 | 8-5 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.6 |
| 14 | 9-5 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Brooke Malek | +3.1 |
| 15 | 9-6 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +2.2 | |
| 16 | 10-6 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.5 |
| 17 | 10-7 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Natalia Clifford | set Abby Edwards | +2.2 |
| 18 | 11-7 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Nora Benjamins | set Drew Flanagan | +2.5 |
| 19 | 11-8 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +2.2 | |
| 20 | 11-9 | SIENA | SIENA | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +3.3 | |
| 21 | 12-9 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +2.9 |
| 22 | 12-10 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Sarahya College | +2.7 | |
| 23 | 13-10 | SIENA | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +3.0 |
| 24 | 14-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.4 |
| 25 | 15-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Doga Diraz | blk Isa Glover | +2.9 |
| 26 | 16-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Doga Diraz | blk Isa Glover, Emma Sorensen | +2.2 |
| 27 | 17-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.6 |
| 28 | 18-10 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×6 | Attack err | Doga Diraz | +1.1 | |
| 29 | 18-11 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Oliwia Majtyka | +0.5 |
| 30 | 19-11 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.7 |
| 31 | 19-12 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Georgia Murphy | +0.4 | |
| 32 | 20-12 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.6 |
| 33 | 20-13 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +0.3 |
| 34 | 21-13 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +0.5 |
| 35 | 22-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +0.3 |
| 36 | 22-14 | HOLYCR | SIENA×3 | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +0.1 |
| 37 | 22-15 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Drew Flanagan | +0.2 |
| 38 | 22-16 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +0.4 |
| 39 | 23-16 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +0.6 |
| 40 | 24-16 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +0.2 |
| 41 | 24-17 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Abby Edwards | +0.0 |
| 42 | 25-17 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Elizabeth Hall | +0.1 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Gabrielle Wire | +3.1 |
| 2 | 1-1 | HOLYCR | SIENA×4 | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +2.4 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Ace | SIENA server | aced Georgia Murphy | +3.2 |
| 4 | 1-3 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Ace | SIENA server | aced Georgia Murphy | +3.2 |
| 5 | 1-4 | SIENA | SIENA×4 | Kill | Maggie Seymour | +3.2 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +2.3 |
| 7 | 2-5 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Maggie Seymour | set Abby Edwards | +2.5 |
| 8 | 3-5 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Sarahya College | set Abby Edwards | +2.3 |
| 9 | 3-6 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Alison Goldberg | set Abby Edwards | +2.6 |
| 10 | 4-6 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Attack err | Brianna Miller | blk Isa Glover, Emma Sorensen | +2.4 |
| 11 | 4-7 | HOLYCR | SIENA×3 | Kill | Alison Goldberg | set Oliwia Majtyka | +2.6 |
| 12 | 4-8 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Feed gap | Placeholder: the NCAA feed skipped this point; only the score change is known. | +3.2 | |
| 13 | 4-9 | SIENA | SIENA×3 | Attack err | Kat Teepe | +2.8 | |
| 14 | 5-9 | SIENA | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +1.9 |
| 15 | 6-9 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Attack err | Anna Hanson | +2.8 | |
| 16 | 7-9 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×3 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.2 |
| 17 | 7-10 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Anna Hanson | set Oliwia Majtyka | +2.8 |
| 18 | 8-10 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.6 |
| 19 | 8-11 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Gabrielle Wire | set Brianna Miller | +2.9 |
| 20 | 9-11 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +2.6 |
| 21 | 10-11 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | +3.8 | |
| 22 | 10-12 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Emma Sorensen | +3.2 | |
| 23 | 11-12 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Lacey Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +3.0 |
| 24 | 11-13 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Mary Claire Deacy | set Natalia Clifford | +3.3 |
| 25 | 12-13 | SIENA | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Sarahya College | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.1 |
| 26 | 13-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +4.4 |
| 27 | 14-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +4.6 |
| 28 | 15-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +4.5 |
| 29 | 16-13 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×5 | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +4.1 |
| 30 | 16-14 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Brianna Miller | set Abby Edwards | +2.8 |
| 31 | 17-14 | SIENA | HOLYCR×4 | Kill | Isa Glover | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +3.3 |
| 32 | 18-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Attack err | Anna Hanson | blk Isa Glover, Georgia Murphy | +3.6 |
| 33 | 19-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Attack err | Brianna Miller | +2.8 | |
| 34 | 20-14 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR×4 | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Hannah Bowman | +1.9 |
| 35 | 20-15 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Kill | Alison Goldberg | set Oliwia Majtyka | +0.9 |
| 36 | 20-16 | SIENA | SIENA | Ace | SIENA server | aced Emma Sorensen | +1.8 |
| 37 | 21-16 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Kat Teepe | set Tuana Ozarpaci | +2.0 |
| 38 | 21-17 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +1.2 | |
| 39 | 22-17 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Attack err | Hannah Bowman | +1.9 | |
| 40 | 23-17 | HOLYCR | HOLYCR | Ace | HOLYCR server | aced Hannah Bowman | +1.3 |
| 41 | 23-18 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Serve err | HOLYCR server | +0.4 | |
| 42 | 24-18 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Georgia Murphy | set Drew Flanagan | +0.7 |
| 43 | 24-19 | HOLYCR | SIENA | Attack err | Sarahya College | blk Maggie Seymour | +0.2 |
| 44 | 25-19 | SIENA | HOLYCR | Kill | Emma Sorensen | set Drew Flanagan | +0.3 |
Score shown after each rally, Holy Cross first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.