FinalFri, Sep 4, 2026

AwayHORIZON

3:0

HomeMVC

Purdue Fort Wayne def. Evansville 3–0

(26-24, 25-20, 25-13)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
IPFW	26	25	25	3
EVANS	24	20	13	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

EVANS above 50 · IPFW below

Biggest swing: 5.2% to Purdue Fort Wayne — set 1, IPFW 26-24 EVANS. Attack error by Makenzie Miller. EVANS win probability 13% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

IPFW 84.9%15.1% EVANS

Purdue Fort Wayne wins

3-0

36.9%

3-1

31.3%

3-2

16.6%

Evansville wins

3-0

2.3%

3-1

4.9%

3-2

8.0%

IPFW break %: 45.8% vs this opp
EVANS break %: 37.9% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Makenzie MillerAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Makenzie Miller
Set 1 · IPFW 26-24 EVANS · IPFW 87% → 92%
02
Wren JonesKill+4.8%
Kill by Wren Jones (set by Carsyn Kelley)
Set 1 · IPFW 23-23 EVANS · EVANS 13% → 17%
03
Trinity RyeKill+4.4%
Kill by Trinity Rye (set by Lili Smith)
Set 1 · IPFW 24-23 EVANS · IPFW 83% → 87%
04
Wren JonesKill+4.4%
Kill by Wren Jones (set by Kendall Agler)
Set 1 · IPFW 24-24 EVANS · EVANS 13% → 17%
05
Miona DimitricKill+4.4%
Kill by Miona Dimitric (set by Lili Smith)
Set 1 · IPFW 25-24 EVANS · IPFW 83% → 87%
06
Ryan ScheuKill+2.6%
Kill by Ryan Scheu (set by Carsyn Kelley)
Set 1 · IPFW 17-17 EVANS · EVANS 14% → 17%
07
EVANS serverAce+2.6%
Evansville ace on Miona Dimitric
Set 1 · IPFW 23-22 EVANS · EVANS 10% → 13%
08
Trinity RyeKill+2.5%
Kill by Trinity Rye (set by Lili Smith)
Set 1 · IPFW 19-17 EVANS · IPFW 85% → 88%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Purdue Fort Wayneaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
9Trinity RyeOH	3	19	6	34	.382	1	2	2	6	0	1	0.5	21.5
6Riley RosneckOH	3	11	1	31	.323	0	0	1	10	0	1	0.5	11.5
19Miona DimitricOH	3	8	1	21	.333	0	2	1	10	2	0	0	10
5Mya PlemonsMB	3	7	0	12	.583	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	8
15Bella DiBuonoMB	3	4	3	10	.100	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	5
1Lili SmithS	3	0	0	0	–	45	1	3	4	0	0	0	1
2Ava TesterS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
3Becky BarrettDS	3	0	0	0	–	3	0	2	15	2	0	0	0
14Kennedy McCantsMB	1	1	0	1	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
8Anna CassidyMB	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		50	11	111	.351	49	6	9	47	4	6	3	76

Evansvillehome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
3Wren JonesOH	3	9	7	26	.077	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	9
7Lyla FisherOH	3	6	3	18	.167	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6
18Makenzie MillerMB	3	4	2	11	.182	0	1	0	0	0	1	0.5	5.5
2Carsyn KelleyS	3	0	0	2	.000	22	0	0	8	0	0	0	0
17Ryan ScheuOH	2	5	0	15	.333	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	5.5
4Sabrina RippleMB	2	1	1	5	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
1Carlotta Pascual CentellesOH	3	5	2	13	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
6Lexi OwenS	3	0	0	2	.000	4	1	0	5	0	0	0	1
15Brooke HerdesOH	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	8	1	0	0	1
20Kendall AglerL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	3	1	2	13	0	0	0	1
21McKenzie LaubachMB	1	2	0	3	.667	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
10Aubry DowlingL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		32	15	95	.179	30	4	5	42	6	2	1	57

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 5 IPFW · EVANS 4

Set 1

26-24

Longest run 5 IPFWEVANS 4

Set 2

25-20

Longest run 5 IPFWEVANS 3

Set 3

25-13

Longest run 4 IPFWEVANS 2

Bars above the line = Evansville leads, below = Purdue Fort Wayne leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Purdue Fort Wayne

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	63%12/19
2	89%8/9	20%2/10
3	50%7/14	22%2/9
4	70%7/10	53%8/15
5	63%5/8	58%7/12
6	63%5/8	50%5/10
All	69%40/58	48%36/75

Evansville

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	47%8/17	33%3/9
2	64%7/11	20%2/10
3	64%7/11	30%3/10
4	58%7/12	46%6/13
5	42%5/12	22%2/9
6	42%5/12	29%2/7
All	52%39/75	31%18/58

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

133 rallies

Rally log

#	IPFW-EVANS	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.4
2	1-1	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Bella DiBuono		+1.0
3	2-1	EVANS	IPFW	Attack err	Wren Jones		+1.0
4	2-2	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Sabrina Ripple	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.1
5	3-2	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.0
6	3-3	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+1.1
7	4-3	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+1.0
8	4-4	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.1
9	5-4	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+1.1
10	5-5	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.2
11	5-6	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Becky Barrett	+1.8
12	6-6	EVANS	IPFW×5	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.2
13	7-6	IPFW	IPFW×5	Ace	IPFW server	aced Team	+1.6
14	8-6	IPFW	IPFW×5	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+1.5
15	9-6	IPFW	IPFW×5	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.3
16	10-6	IPFW	IPFW×5	Attack err	Sabrina Ripple		+1.1
17	10-7	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.7
18	11-7	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.8
19	12-7	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+0.9
20	12-8	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
21	12-9	EVANS	EVANS	Attack err	Bella DiBuono		+1.0
22	13-9	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.8
23	13-10	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.7
24	14-10	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.8
25	14-11	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.8
26	15-11	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.8
27	15-12	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.8
28	16-12	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.9
29	16-13	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.8
30	17-13	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.9
31	17-14	IPFW	EVANS×4	Attack err	Bella DiBuono		+0.8
32	17-15	EVANS	EVANS×4	Attack err	Riley Rosneck		+1.5
33	17-16	EVANS	EVANS×4	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Kendall Agler	+2.1
34	17-17	EVANS	EVANS×4	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Carsyn Kelley	+2.6
35	18-17	EVANS	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+1.9
36	19-17	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+2.5
37	20-17	IPFW	IPFW×4	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+2.0
38	21-17	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.4
39	21-18	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.6
40	22-18	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.9
41	22-19	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.6
42	23-19	EVANS	IPFW	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.9
43	23-20	IPFW	EVANS×4	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.4
44	23-21	EVANS	EVANS×4	Bad set	Lili Smith		+1.3
45	23-22	EVANS	EVANS×4	Ace	EVANS server	aced Miona Dimitric	+2.6
46	23-23	EVANS	EVANS×4	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+4.8
47	24-23	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+4.4
48	24-24	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Kendall Agler	+4.4
49	25-24	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+4.4
50	26-24	IPFW	IPFW	Attack err	Makenzie Miller		+5.2
Set 2
1	1-0	EVANS	IPFW	Attack err	Lyla Fisher	blk Riley Rosneck, Bella DiBuono	+0.7
2	1-1	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Miona Dimitric		+0.8
3	2-1	EVANS	IPFW×3	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.7
4	3-1	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.9
5	4-1	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Wren Jones	blk Mya Plemons, Trinity Rye	+0.8
6	4-2	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.6
7	4-3	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.0
8	5-3	EVANS	IPFW×5	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Trinity Rye	+0.7
9	6-3	IPFW	IPFW×5	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.9
10	7-3	IPFW	IPFW×5	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.7
11	8-3	IPFW	IPFW×5	Attack err	Wren Jones		+0.6
12	9-3	IPFW	IPFW×5	Ace	IPFW server	aced Brooke Herdes	+0.5
13	9-4	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.3
14	10-4	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.3
15	10-5	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.3
16	10-6	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Lexi Owen	+0.5
17	11-6	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.4
18	11-7	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.4
19	12-7	EVANS	IPFW	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.4
20	13-7	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Bella DiBuono		+0.5
21	13-8	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.3
22	14-8	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.3
23	14-9	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
24	15-9	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.3
25	15-10	IPFW	EVANS×3	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.3
26	15-11	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
27	15-12	EVANS	EVANS×3	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.7
28	16-12	EVANS	IPFW	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.6
29	16-13	IPFW	EVANS×3	Attack err	Trinity Rye		+0.6
30	16-14	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+1.1
31	16-15	EVANS	EVANS×3	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Lexi Owen	+1.4
32	17-15	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+1.1
33	18-15	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.3
34	18-16	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.8
35	19-16	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Becky Barrett	+1.0
36	20-16	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+1.0
37	20-17	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Lyla Fisher	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.5
38	21-17	EVANS	IPFW×3	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.7
39	22-17	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Lyla Fisher		+0.6
40	23-17	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.2
41	23-18	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.1
42	24-18	EVANS	IPFW	Attack err	Carlotta Pascual Centelles		+0.1
43	24-19	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
44	24-20	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Becky Barrett	+0.1
45	25-20	EVANS	IPFW	Serve err	EVANS server		+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Carlotta Pascual Centelles		+0.5
2	2-0	IPFW	IPFW×3	Attack err	Wren Jones	blk Mya Plemons, Bella DiBuono	+0.4
3	3-0	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.4
4	3-1	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.3
5	4-1	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.3
6	5-1	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.3
7	5-2	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
8	6-2	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Bella DiBuono	set Lili Smith	+0.2
9	6-3	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Carlotta Pascual Centelles	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.2
10	7-3	EVANS	IPFW×4	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.2
11	8-3	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Mya Plemons	set Lili Smith	+0.3
12	9-3	IPFW	IPFW×4	Attack err	Makenzie Miller		+0.2
13	10-3	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.2
14	10-4	IPFW	EVANS	Attack err	Trinity Rye	blk Ryan Scheu, Makenzie Miller	+0.1
15	11-4	EVANS	IPFW×3	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.1
16	12-4	IPFW	IPFW×3	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.1
17	13-4	IPFW	IPFW×3	Ace	IPFW server	aced Team	+0.1
18	13-5	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Lexi Owen	+0.0
19	13-6	EVANS	EVANS	Ace	EVANS server	aced Miona Dimitric	+0.1
20	14-6	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.1
21	14-7	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Wren Jones	set McKenzie Laubach	+0.1
22	15-7	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.1
23	16-7	IPFW	IPFW	Ace	IPFW server	aced Wren Jones	+0.1
24	16-8	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.0
25	17-8	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Kennedy McCants	set Lili Smith	+0.0
26	18-8	IPFW	IPFW	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Becky Barrett	+0.0
27	18-9	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	McKenzie Laubach	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
28	19-9	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.0
29	19-10	IPFW	EVANS	Kill	Makenzie Miller	set Carsyn Kelley	+0.0
30	19-11	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Kendall Agler	+0.0
31	20-11	EVANS	IPFW	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Becky Barrett	+0.0
32	21-11	IPFW	IPFW	Ace	IPFW server	aced Lyla Fisher	+0.0
33	21-12	IPFW	EVANS	Serve err	IPFW server		+0.0
34	21-13	EVANS	EVANS	Kill	Ryan Scheu	set Lexi Owen	+0.0
35	22-13	EVANS	IPFW×4	Kill	Miona Dimitric	set Lili Smith	+0.0
36	23-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Trinity Rye	set Lili Smith	+0.0
37	24-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Kill	Riley Rosneck	set Lili Smith	+0.0
38	25-13	IPFW	IPFW×4	Ace	IPFW server	aced Wren Jones	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Purdue Fort Wayne first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.