San Diego State vs Texas State Prediction

ScheduledThu, Nov 12, 2026Pac-12 YouTubeYouTube

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San Diego St. (15-7) at Texas St. (8-16), Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 6:00 PM CT on Pac-12 YouTube and YouTube. RallyIQ gives San Diego St. an 85% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, San Diego St. won 3-0 on Oct 17.

Data through Nov 10, 6:20 PM CT

Match prediction

SDSU 85.5%14.5% TX ST

San Diego St. wins

3-0

37.7%

3-1

31.4%

3-2

16.4%

Texas St. wins

3-0

2.1%

3-1

4.6%

3-2

7.8%

SDSU break %: 45.3% vs this opp
TX ST break %: 37.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.