FinalSat, Sep 12, 2026

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0:3

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Siena def. Bucknell 3–0

(25-18, 25-18, 25-15)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
BUCKNL	18	18	15	0
SIENA	25	25	25	3

RallyIQ model

Win probability

SIENA above 50 · BUCKNL below

Biggest swing: 4.2% to Siena — set 1, BUCKNL 18-20 SIENA. Siena ace on Cameron Lloyd. SIENA win probability 68% → 72%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

BUCKNL 35.1%64.9% SIENA

Bucknell wins

3-0

7.2%

3-1

12.6%

3-2

15.3%

Siena wins

3-0

20.0%

3-1

24.9%

3-2

20.1%

BUCKNL break %: 41.5% vs this opp
SIENA break %: 44.4% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
SIENA serverAce+4.2%
Siena ace on Cameron Lloyd
Set 1 · BUCKNL 18-20 SIENA · SIENA 68% → 72%
02
Emerson BoydKill+4.1%
Kill by Emerson Boyd (set by Oliwia Majtyka)
Set 1 · BUCKNL 18-18 SIENA · BUCKNL 31% → 36%
03
SIENA serverAce+3.5%
Siena ace on Emily Kearney
Set 1 · BUCKNL 18-21 SIENA · SIENA 72% → 75%
04
BUCKNL serverAce+3.4%
Bucknell ace on Brianna Miller
Set 1 · BUCKNL 17-18 SIENA · BUCKNL 28% → 31%
05
Kaitlyn TaylorAttack error+3.3%
Attack error by Kaitlyn Taylor
Set 1 · BUCKNL 18-19 SIENA · SIENA 64% → 68%
06
Sidney ShafferKill+3.1%
Kill by Sidney Shaffer (set by Emerson Boyd)
Set 1 · BUCKNL 15-16 SIENA · BUCKNL 29% → 32%
07
Sidney ShafferAttack error+3.1%
Attack error by Sidney Shaffer
Set 1 · BUCKNL 15-18 SIENA · SIENA 71% → 74%
08
Abby EdwardsKill+2.6%
Kill by Abby Edwards
Set 1 · BUCKNL 15-17 SIENA · SIENA 68% → 71%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Bucknellaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
1Sidney ShafferMB	3	9	5	31	.129	1	1	1	1	0	3	1	3.5	13.5
2Kaitlyn TaylorOH	3	6	7	23	-.043	0	1	1	10	0	0	0	0	7
22Cameron LloydOH	3	6	3	21	.143	2	0	0	10	2	0	1	0.5	6.5
15Marion HaskellOPP	3	6	2	21	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
4Peyton McGeeS	3	1	1	8	.000	20	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1
17Stephanie ErohMB	2	2	0	8	.250	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
33Katie O'SullivanL/DS	3	1	1	3	.000	2	0	1	19	1	0	0	0	1
8Emily KearneyDS	3	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	6	2	0	0	0	0
11Emerson BoydOPP	2	1	0	2	.500	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
12Emerson SpringsOH	2	0	0	0	–	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
9Sarah HilliardOH	1	1	2	3	-.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
7Lily LufkinMB	1	1	1	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
23Klea TarjaOH	1	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		34	22	124	.097	30	3	3	51	5	3	2	4	51

Sienahome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
7Mary Claire DeacyOH	3	10	3	24	.292	0	0	0	3	0	3	1.5	11.5
1Gabrielle WireOH	3	10	0	21	.476	0	0	0	2	0	1	0.5	10.5
11Brianna MillerOH	3	7	4	30	.100	0	2	1	9	3	1	0.5	9.5
12Maggie SeymourMB	3	3	1	5	.400	0	1	0	1	0	6	3	7
22Alison GoldbergMB	3	3	1	9	.222	0	0	0	1	0	3	1.5	4.5
8Abby EdwardsS	3	2	0	3	.667	20	0	1	7	0	0	0	2
18Doga DirazOH	3	8	1	18	.389	0	0	0	1	0	4	2	10
2Oliwia MajtykaS	3	1	0	4	.250	16	1	0	5	0	0	0	2
21Brooke MalekL/DS	3	0	0	1	.000	3	1	1	20	0	0	0	1
5Autumn WillmottL/DS	3	0	0	2	.000	0	0	0	12	0	0	0	0
Team totals		44	10	117	.291	39	5	3	61	3	18	9	75

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 4 BUCKNL · SIENA 7

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 3 BUCKNLSIENA 7

Set 2

18-25

Longest run 4 BUCKNLSIENA 6

Set 3

15-25

Longest run 4 BUCKNLSIENA 6

Bars above the line = Siena leads, below = Bucknell leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Bucknell

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	75%6/8	33%2/6
2	50%6/12	33%3/9
3	43%6/14	54%7/13
4	35%6/17	33%3/9
5	27%4/15	45%5/11
6	38%3/8	0%0/4
All	42%31/74	38%20/52

Siena

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	86%6/7	44%4/9
2	46%6/13	54%7/13
3	50%6/12	33%3/9
4	55%6/11	73%16/22
5	100%4/4	64%7/11
6	80%4/5	60%6/10
All	62%32/52	58%43/74

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

126 rallies

Rally log

#	BUCKNL-SIENA	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Maggie Seymour	set Abby Edwards	+2.2
2	1-1	SIENA	BUCKNL	Serve err	SIENA server		+1.7
3	1-2	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.7
4	2-2	SIENA	BUCKNL	Attack err	Brianna Miller		+1.8
5	2-3	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+1.7
6	2-4	SIENA	SIENA	Ace	SIENA server	aced Katie O'Sullivan	+2.2
7	3-4	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+1.7
8	3-5	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Alison Goldberg	+1.7
9	3-6	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+2.1
10	3-7	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+1.9
11	4-7	SIENA	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+1.3
12	5-7	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+2.1
13	6-7	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Doga Diraz		+2.4
14	6-8	BUCKNL	SIENA	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+1.9
15	7-8	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+1.8
16	7-9	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.9
17	7-10	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell		+2.4
18	7-11	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Cameron Lloyd	+2.1
19	8-11	SIENA	BUCKNL	Serve err	SIENA server		+1.4
20	9-11	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Stephanie Eroh	set Peyton McGee	+2.2
21	9-12	BUCKNL	SIENA	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+1.9
22	10-12	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Peyton McGee	+1.7
23	10-13	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Serve err	BUCKNL server		+1.9
24	10-14	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Maggie Seymour	+2.2
25	10-15	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.8
26	11-15	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Emerson Boyd	+1.1
27	12-15	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Emily Kearney	+1.9
28	12-16	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.7
29	13-16	SIENA	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Emerson Boyd	+1.4
30	14-16	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Emerson Boyd	+2.5
31	15-16	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Emerson Boyd	+3.1
32	15-17	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Abby Edwards		+2.6
33	15-18	SIENA	SIENA	Attack err	Sidney Shaffer		+3.1
34	16-18	SIENA	BUCKNL×3	Attack err	Alison Goldberg	blk Sidney Shaffer	+2.0
35	17-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Brianna Miller	+3.4
36	18-18	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×3	Kill	Emerson Boyd	set Oliwia Majtyka	+4.1
37	18-19	BUCKNL	SIENA×7	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+3.3
38	18-20	SIENA	SIENA×7	Ace	SIENA server	aced Cameron Lloyd	+4.2
39	18-21	SIENA	SIENA×7	Ace	SIENA server	aced Emily Kearney	+3.5
40	18-22	SIENA	SIENA×7	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Oliwia Majtyka	+2.5
41	18-23	SIENA	SIENA×7	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Brooke Malek	+1.4
42	18-24	SIENA	SIENA×7	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.5
43	18-25	SIENA	SIENA×7	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor		+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.4
2	0-2	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.9
3	1-2	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.4
4	1-3	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Maggie Seymour	set Abby Edwards	+1.4
5	2-3	SIENA	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Katie O'Sullivan	+1.4
6	3-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Brianna Miller	blk Sidney Shaffer	+2.1
7	4-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+2.2
8	5-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy	blk Cameron Lloyd, Sidney Shaffer	+2.3
9	5-4	BUCKNL	SIENA×6	Kill	Alison Goldberg	set Abby Edwards	+1.6
10	5-5	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+2.2
11	5-6	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Sidney Shaffer		+2.2
12	5-7	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Brooke Malek	+2.1
13	5-8	SIENA	SIENA×6	Bad set	Peyton McGee		+1.9
14	5-9	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Alison Goldberg		+1.7
15	6-9	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer		+1.2
16	6-10	BUCKNL	SIENA	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Alison Goldberg, Doga Diraz	+1.3
17	7-10	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+1.2
18	7-11	BUCKNL	SIENA	Attack err	Peyton McGee		+1.3
19	7-12	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.5
20	8-12	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Lily Lufkin	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
21	8-13	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.1
22	8-14	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+1.2
23	8-15	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Maggie Seymour		+0.9
24	9-15	SIENA	BUCKNL	Bad set	Brooke Malek		+0.5
25	10-15	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Brianna Miller	+0.9
26	10-16	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
27	11-16	SIENA	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Katie O'Sullivan	set Abby Edwards	+0.6
28	12-16	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Maggie Seymour	blk Sidney Shaffer	+1.2
29	13-16	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Brianna Miller		+1.6
30	14-16	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+2.2
31	14-17	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Abby Edwards		+1.9
32	15-17	SIENA	BUCKNL	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy		+1.7
33	15-18	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.0
34	16-18	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Cameron Lloyd	+1.7
35	16-19	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Brooke Malek	+2.1
36	17-19	SIENA	BUCKNL	Serve err	SIENA server		+1.7
37	17-20	BUCKNL	SIENA×4	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Oliwia Majtyka	+2.2
38	17-21	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Lily Lufkin	blk Gabrielle Wire, Maggie Seymour	+2.2
39	17-22	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Maggie Seymour, Doga Diraz	+1.3
40	17-23	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Katie O'Sullivan		+0.7
41	18-23	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+0.2
42	18-24	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.3
43	18-25	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+0.1
Set 3
1	1-0	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
2	1-1	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
3	1-2	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd		+1.1
4	1-3	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Marion Haskell	blk Maggie Seymour, Brianna Miller	+1.1
5	2-3	SIENA	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.8
6	3-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Cameron Lloyd	set Katie O'Sullivan	+1.2
7	4-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+1.3
8	5-3	BUCKNL	BUCKNL×4	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy		+1.3
9	5-4	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
10	6-4	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Peyton McGee	set Maggie Seymour	+1.0
11	6-5	BUCKNL	SIENA×4	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
12	6-6	SIENA	SIENA×4	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.3
13	6-7	SIENA	SIENA×4	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.3
14	6-8	SIENA	SIENA×4	Ace	SIENA server	aced Emily Kearney	+1.2
15	7-8	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Sidney Shaffer	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
16	8-8	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Ace	BUCKNL server	aced Brianna Miller	+1.3
17	8-9	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Oliwia Majtyka		+1.0
18	9-9	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+1.0
19	9-10	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+1.1
20	10-10	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Peyton McGee	+1.1
21	10-11	BUCKNL	SIENA	Attack err	Cameron Lloyd	blk Doga Diraz, Maggie Seymour	+1.1
22	11-11	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+1.1
23	11-12	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+1.1
24	11-13	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Sidney Shaffer	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Maggie Seymour	+1.5
25	11-14	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+1.3
26	12-14	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Marion Haskell	set Peyton McGee	+0.9
27	12-15	BUCKNL	SIENA×3	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.0
28	12-16	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Sidney Shaffer		+1.1
29	12-17	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
30	13-17	SIENA	BUCKNL	Attack err	Brianna Miller		+0.5
31	14-17	BUCKNL	BUCKNL	Kill	Kaitlyn Taylor	set Cameron Lloyd	+0.9
32	14-18	BUCKNL	SIENA×6	Attack err	Sidney Shaffer		+0.9
33	14-19	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.9
34	14-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Kaitlyn Taylor	blk Doga Diraz, Alison Goldberg	+0.6
35	14-21	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Sarah Hilliard		+0.3
36	14-22	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Sarah Hilliard		+0.1
37	14-23	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.1
38	15-23	SIENA	BUCKNL	Kill	Sarah Hilliard	set Sidney Shaffer	+0.0
39	15-24	BUCKNL	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.0
40	15-25	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Alison Goldberg	set Oliwia Majtyka	+0.0

Score shown after each rally, Bucknell first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.