Final · 5 setsSat, Oct 17, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Fairfield def. Siena 3–2

RallyIQ pre-match: Fairfield 84.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 17, 12:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Fairfield won at Siena 3-2 (21-25, 25-14, 19-25, 25-22, 15-12) on Sat, Oct 17, 2026. Fairfield's Mamie Krubally led with 27 kills, and Natalie Carlin added 17 digs.

Data through · final Oct 17

Set12345Sets
FAIR21251925153
SIENA25142522122

Match story · written from the play-by-play

.545 on 44 swings: Mamie Krubally and Fairfield edged Siena.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Fairfield's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Fairfield at 85%.

  1. Turning point 1: Set 4 · Fairfield 9–9 Siena

    8 straight Fairfield points broke a 9–9 tie and made it 17–9. The match swung to Fairfield.

    Fairfield 46% → 67%

  2. Turning point 2: Set 5 · Fairfield 1–2 Siena

    Down 1–2, Fairfield had 4 straight kills to lead 5–2.

    Fairfield 59% → 87%

  3. Turning point 3: Set 5 · Fairfield 12–11 Siena

    Fairfield won 3 of the last 4 rallies to take the set 15–12 and win the match 3–2.

    Fairfield 74% → >99%

Siena above 50Fairfield belowMax swing 16.1%

FairfieldSiena

Sideout %
Fairfield 58.6·Siena 54.8
Break %
Fairfield 45.2·Siena 41.4
Hitting
Fairfield .309·Siena .231
Longest run
Fairfield 9·Siena 4

Mamie Krubally
27 kills on .545, 28 points; 5 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Siena above 50 · Fairfield below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 4SET 510050100+16.1% FAIRrally 203 · set 5

Biggest swing: 16.1% to Fairfield — set 5, FAIR 14-12 SIENA. Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Zofia Sykut). SIENA win probability 24% → 8%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

FAIR 81.2%18.8% SIENA

Fairfield wins

3-0
32.8%
3-1
30.5%
3-2
17.9%

Siena wins

3-0
3.0%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
9.6%
FAIR break %
46.1% vs this opp
SIENA break %
39.3% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01
    Mamie KruballyKill+16.1%

    Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Zofia Sykut)

    Set 5 · FAIR 14-12 SIENA · FAIR 76% → 92%

  2. 02
    Mamie KruballyKill+14.1%

    Kill by Mamie Krubally (set by Zofia Sykut)

    Set 5 · FAIR 13-12 SIENA · FAIR 62% → 76%

  3. 03
    Gabrielle WireKill+12.8%

    Kill by Gabrielle Wire (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 5 · FAIR 10-10 SIENA · SIENA 24% → 37%

  4. 04

    Kill by Mary Claire Deacy (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 5 · FAIR 12-12 SIENA · SIENA 26% → 38%

  5. 05
    Julie DufourtKill+11.8%

    Kill by Julie Dufourt (set by Katelyn Cook)

    Set 5 · FAIR 12-11 SIENA · FAIR 62% → 74%

  6. 06
    Gabrielle WireKill+10.9%

    Kill by Gabrielle Wire (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 5 · FAIR 11-11 SIENA · SIENA 27% → 38%

  7. 07
    Julie DufourtKill+10.3%

    Kill by Julie Dufourt (set by Zofia Sykut)

    Set 5 · FAIR 11-10 SIENA · FAIR 63% → 73%

  8. 08

    Aislin Oldach stuffed by Alison Goldberg & Abby Edwards

    Set 5 · FAIR 9-8 SIENA · SIENA 16% → 25%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
527344.5451003002128
516835.229111103010.517.5
58115.46702130031.511.5
55114.28600000031.56.5
5205.40049321500005
53215.0677011410003
513531.25800060010.513.5
54416.000001310215
5000–4011710000
3000–1101900000
2000–100100000
Team totals7824175.30974688180126105
Sienahome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
524466.3031319002128
510121.4291002000010
56631.000010910218
5229.000000200635
5207.2864602120010.52.5
5001.000120210002
512432.25000043010.512.5
5002.0004102000001
5000–110000001
Team totals5617169.2315483606012698

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 9 FAIR · SIENA 4

Set 1

21-25

Longest run 4 FAIRSIENA 4

Set 2

25-14

Longest run 9 FAIRSIENA 3

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 2 FAIRSIENA 4

Set 4

25-22

Longest run 8 FAIRSIENA 3

Set 5

15-12

Longest run 4 FAIRSIENA 3

Bars above the line = Siena leads, below = Fairfield leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Fairfield

SlotSideout %Break %
1
59%13/22
47%9/19
2
86%12/14
46%11/24
3
56%9/16
64%16/25
4
62%8/13
31%4/13
5
44%8/18
38%5/13
6
50%8/16
20%2/10
All
59%58/99
45%47/104

Siena

SlotSideout %Break %
1
57%13/23
52%12/23
2
45%10/22
28%5/18
3
50%9/18
31%4/13
4
69%9/13
47%8/17
5
67%8/12
50%8/16
6
50%8/16
33%4/12
All
55%57/104
41%41/99

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (5 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

203 rallies

#FAIR-SIENASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
11-0FAIRFAIRKillKatelyn Cookset Zofia Sykut+1.3
21-1FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.1
32-1SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Mamie Krubally+1.0
42-2FAIRSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.1
52-3SIENASIENAAttack errJulie Dufourt+1.6
63-3SIENAFAIR×3KillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+1.1
74-3FAIRFAIR×3Attack errBrianna Miller+1.5
85-3FAIRFAIR×3Attack errBrianna Miller+1.3
95-4FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.0
106-4SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.0
116-5FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.1
127-5SIENAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+1.0
137-6FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.1
148-6SIENAFAIRKillKatelyn Cookset Noella Migliuri+1.1
158-7FAIRSIENA×3Attack errKatelyn Cook+1.1
168-8SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.7
178-9SIENASIENA×3Attack errHarlan Wyche+2.0
189-9SIENAFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+1.4
199-10FAIRSIENA×4BlockedKatelyn Cookblk Alison Goldberg, Mary Claire Deacy+1.6
209-11SIENASIENA×4KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.3
219-12SIENASIENA×4AceSienaaced Natalie Carlin+2.4
229-13SIENASIENA×4KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.3
2310-13SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Daniella Suarez+1.4
2411-13FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.1
2511-14FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.9
2612-14SIENAFAIR×4KillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+1.6
2713-14FAIRFAIR×4KillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+2.3
2814-14FAIRFAIR×4Attack errMaggie Seymour+2.3
2915-14FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Katelyn Cook+2.2
3015-15FAIRSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.8
3115-16SIENASIENAAceSiena+2.7
3216-16SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+1.9
3316-17FAIRSIENABad setSophia Nagy+2.2
3417-17SIENAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+2.0
3518-17FAIRFAIRBlockedGabrielle Wireblk Sophia Nagy, Emma Bortolotti+2.7
3618-18FAIRSIENA×3KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.1
3718-19SIENASIENA×3KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+3.4
3818-20SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+3.7
3919-20SIENAFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+2.3
4019-21FAIRSIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+3.1
4119-22SIENASIENA×3BlockedEmma Bortolottiblk Alison Goldberg, Brianna Miller+3.8
4219-23SIENASIENA×3BlockedEmma Bortolottiblk Alison Goldberg, Brianna Miller+2.8
4320-23SIENAFAIRAttack errMary Claire Deacy+1.0
4420-24FAIRSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Mary Claire Deacy+2.0
4521-24SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+0.6
4621-25FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.5
Set 2
11-0SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.7
22-0FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.1
32-1FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.6
43-1SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.6
53-2FAIRSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Brooke Malek+1.7
64-2SIENAFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Natalie Carlin+1.6
75-2FAIRFAIR×3BlockedBrianna Millerblk Sophia Nagy, Emma Bortolotti+2.0
86-2FAIRFAIR×3KillEmma Bortolottiset Noella Migliuri+1.7
96-3FAIRSIENA×3Serve errFairfield+1.2
106-4SIENASIENA×3Attack errEmma Bortolotti+2.0
116-5SIENASIENA×3Attack errAislin Oldach+2.4
127-5SIENAFAIR×3KillAislin Oldachset Natalie Carlin+1.8
138-5FAIRFAIR×3KillSophia Nagyset Noella Migliuri+2.1
149-5FAIRFAIR×3KillKatelyn Cookset Noella Migliuri+1.8
159-6FAIRSIENA×3Serve errFairfield+1.3
169-7SIENASIENA×3Attack errEmma Bortolotti+2.1
179-8SIENASIENA×3Bad setEmma Bortolotti+2.6
1810-8SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Noella Migliuri+2.0
1911-8FAIRFAIRKillEmma Bortolottiset Natalie Carlin+2.3
2011-9FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.7
2112-9SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Noella Migliuri+1.8
2213-9FAIRFAIRAceFairfieldaced Gabrielle Wire+2.0
2313-10FAIRSIENA×3Attack errJulie Dufourt+1.3
2413-11SIENASIENA×3Attack errJulie Dufourt+2.3
2513-12SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+3.0
2614-12SIENAFAIR×9BlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally+2.3
2715-12FAIRFAIR×9KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.7
2816-12FAIRFAIR×9AceFairfieldaced Autumn Willmott+2.1
2917-12FAIRFAIR×9KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.6
3018-12FAIRFAIR×9BlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Aislin Oldach, Harlan Wyche+1.0
3119-12FAIRFAIR×9BlockedBrianna Millerblk Harlan Wyche, Mamie Krubally+0.6
3220-12FAIRFAIR×9KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.3
3321-12FAIRFAIR×9KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.1
3422-12FAIRFAIR×9Attack errAlison Goldberg+0.1
3522-13FAIRSIENAAttack errJulie Dufourt·
3622-14SIENASIENAKillBrianna Millerset Maggie Seymour·
3723-14SIENAFAIR×3KillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+0.1
3824-14FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfield·
3925-14FAIRFAIR×3AceFairfieldaced Brianna Miller·
Set 3
10-1FAIRSIENAServe errZofia Sykut+1.9
21-1SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+1.8
31-2FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.0
42-2SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+1.8
52-3FAIRSIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.1
62-4SIENASIENA×3Attack errAislin Oldach+2.9
72-5SIENASIENA×3Attack errAislin Oldach+3.1
83-5SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Sophia Nagy+2.1
94-5FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Noella Migliuri+2.8
104-6FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.4
114-7SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Hannah Bowman+3.3
125-7SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.2
135-8FAIRSIENABlockedSophia Nagyblk Alison Goldberg, Gabrielle Wire+2.6
146-8SIENAFAIRServe errSiena+2.2
156-9FAIRSIENA×4Serve errNatalie Carlin+2.7
166-10SIENASIENA×4KillBrianna Millerset Brooke Malek+3.6
176-11SIENASIENA×4Attack errJulie Dufourt+3.4
186-12SIENASIENA×4AceSienaaced Emma Bortolotti+3.2
197-12SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.8
207-13FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+2.4
218-13SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Julie Dufourt+1.7
229-13FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.8
239-14FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.8
2410-14SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.0
2511-14FAIRFAIRAttack errBrianna Miller+3.2
2611-15FAIRSIENAServe errHarlan Wyche+3.1
2711-16SIENASIENAAttack errMamie Krubally+3.7
2812-16SIENAFAIRAttack errGabrielle Wire+2.0
2912-17FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.9
3013-17SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.0
3114-17FAIRFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+3.3
3214-18FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+3.4
3314-19SIENASIENAAttack errJulie Dufourt+3.8
3415-19SIENAFAIRBlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Sophia Nagy, Julie Dufourt+1.8
3515-20FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.9
3616-20SIENAFAIRAttack errBrianna Miller+1.7
3716-21FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.8
3816-22SIENASIENAAttack errMamie Krubally+2.3
3917-22SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+0.7
4017-23FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.5
4118-23SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.5
4218-24FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.1
4319-24SIENAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+0.2
4419-25FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.5
Set 4
10-1SIENASIENABlockedJulie Dufourtblk Alison Goldberg, Mary Claire Deacy+4.1
21-1SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.8
31-2FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+3.2
42-2SIENAFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+2.9
53-2FAIRFAIR×4KillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+3.7
64-2FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+3.4
75-2FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+3.0
85-3FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.2
95-4SIENASIENAAceSiena+3.5
106-4SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+2.6
116-5FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+2.8
127-5SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+2.7
137-6FAIRSIENA×3Serve errEmma Bortolotti+2.9
147-7SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Katelyn Cook+4.4
157-8SIENASIENA×3Attack errJulie Dufourt+5.0
168-8SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Natalie Carlin+3.5
179-8FAIRFAIRAttack errGabrielle Wire+4.5
189-9FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+3.6
1910-9SIENAFAIR×8Serve errSiena+3.4
2011-9FAIRFAIR×8AceFairfieldaced Gabrielle Wire+4.3
2112-9FAIRFAIR×8KillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+3.7
2213-9FAIRFAIR×8Attack errAlison Goldberg+3.0
2314-9FAIRFAIR×8Bad setAbby Edwards+2.3
2415-9FAIRFAIR×8AceFairfieldaced Gabrielle Wire+1.7
2516-9FAIRFAIR×8KillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+1.1
2617-9FAIRFAIR×8KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.7
2717-10FAIRSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.3
2818-10SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.5
2918-11FAIRSIENAServe errJulie Dufourt+0.3
3019-11SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+0.4
3119-12FAIRSIENA×3KillAbby Edwardsset Julie Dufourt+0.3
3219-13SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Julie Dufourt+0.6
3319-14SIENASIENA×3AceSienaaced Julie Dufourt+1.0
3420-14SIENAFAIRServe errSiena+1.1
3520-15FAIRSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+0.7
3621-15SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+1.0
3721-16FAIRSIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+0.6
3821-17SIENASIENA×3KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.3
3921-18SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+2.4
4022-18SIENAFAIRKillHarlan Wycheset Zofia Sykut+2.6
4122-19FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.6
4223-19SIENAFAIRAttack errGabrielle Wire+2.5
4323-20FAIRSIENAServe errZofia Sykut+1.3
4423-21SIENASIENAAttack errMamie Krubally+3.4
4524-21SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+4.4
4624-22FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.8
4725-22SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+4.9
Set 5
10-1SIENASIENAAceSienaaced Julie Dufourt+8.3
21-1SIENAFAIRKillZofia Sykut+5.8
31-2FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+6.7
42-2SIENAFAIR×4KillJulie Dufourtset Katelyn Cook+6.1
53-2FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+7.9
64-2FAIRFAIR×4KillMamie Kruballyset Katelyn Cook+7.2
75-2FAIRFAIR×4KillAislin Oldachset Katelyn Cook+6.1
85-3FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+4.3
96-3SIENAFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Zofia Sykut+4.6
107-3FAIRFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Katelyn Cook+5.0
117-4FAIRSIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Autumn Willmott+3.1
127-5SIENASIENA×3Attack errAislin Oldach+5.8
137-6SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+8.0
148-6SIENAFAIRKillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+6.5
159-6FAIRFAIRKillAislin Oldachset Katelyn Cook+7.3
169-7FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+4.6
179-8SIENASIENABlockedAislin Oldachblk Alison Goldberg, Abby Edwards+8.7
1810-8SIENAFAIRKillSophia Nagyset Zofia Sykut+7.5
1910-9FAIRSIENAKillAbby Edwards+7.1
2010-10SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+12.8
2111-10SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Zofia Sykut+10.3
2211-11FAIRSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+10.9
2312-11SIENAFAIRKillJulie Dufourtset Katelyn Cook+11.8
2412-12FAIRSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+12.2
2513-12SIENAFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+14.1
2614-12FAIRFAIR×3KillMamie Kruballyset Zofia Sykut+16.1
2715-12FAIRFAIR×3KillZofia Sykutset Abby Edwards+7.9

Score shown after each rally, Fairfield first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).