FinalSat, Aug 29, 2026

AwayMETRO

3:0

HomeNEC

Siena def. Central Conn. St. 3–0

(25-23, 25-23, 25-20)

Set	1	2	3	Sets
SIENA	25	25	25	3
C CONN	23	23	20	0

RallyIQ model

Win probability

C CONN above 50 · SIENA below

Biggest swing: 7.8% to Siena — set 2, SIENA 25-23 C CONN. Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards). C CONN win probability 16% → 8%.

Before first serve

Pre-match

SIENA 63.3%36.7% C CONN

Siena wins

3-0

19.0%

3-1

24.2%

3-2

20.0%

Central Conn. St. wins

3-0

7.7%

3-1

13.2%

3-2

15.8%

SIENA break %: 44.1% vs this opp
C CONN break %: 41.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.7%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Largest win-probability swings

Top plays

01
Brianna MillerKill+7.8%
Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards)
Set 2 · SIENA 25-23 C CONN · SIENA 84% → 92%
02
Brianna MillerKill+6.6%
Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards)
Set 1 · SIENA 25-23 C CONN · SIENA 72% → 78%
03
Mary Claire DeacyAttack error+6.2%
Mary Claire Deacy stuffed by Cullen Winter
Set 2 · SIENA 23-23 C CONN · C CONN 16% → 22%
04
C CONN serverService error+6.1%
Central Conn. St. service error
Set 2 · SIENA 24-23 C CONN · SIENA 78% → 84%
05
Breanna GinleyAttack error+5.5%
Breanna Ginley stuffed by Maggie Seymour & Mary Claire Deacy
Set 1 · SIENA 21-20 C CONN · SIENA 61% → 66%
06
Hanley SchmidtAttack error+5.2%
Attack error by Hanley Schmidt
Set 1 · SIENA 22-20 C CONN · SIENA 66% → 72%
07
Mary Claire DeacyKill+5.0%
Kill by Mary Claire Deacy (set by Abby Edwards)
Set 1 · SIENA 20-20 C CONN · SIENA 56% → 61%
08
Brianna MillerKill+5.0%
Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards)
Set 1 · SIENA 24-22 C CONN · SIENA 70% → 75%

Official NCAA box

Box score

Sienaaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
7Mary Claire DeacyOH	3	13	4	26	.346	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	16
12Maggie SeymourMB	3	3	0	9	.333	0	1	1	1	0	1	6	4	8
11Brianna MillerOH	3	6	2	17	.235	0	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	7
22Alison GoldbergMB	3	2	0	5	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1.5	3.5
6Natalia CliffordOH	3	0	0	4	.000	2	3	0	11	3	0	0	0	3
8Abby EdwardsS	3	0	0	2	.000	20	2	2	9	0	0	0	0	2
18Doga DirazOH	3	6	5	16	.063	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1.5	7.5
1Gabrielle WireOH	3	7	1	18	.333	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	7
19Alara DoganyuzS	3	0	0	0	–	9	1	1	3	0	0	0	0	1
21Brooke MalekL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	4	1	0	13	0	0	0	0	1
5Autumn WillmottL/DS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
9Madison EvansS	1	0	0	0	–	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team totals		37	12	97	.258	35	9	4	51	5	1	18	10	75

Central Conn. St.home

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
5Olivia KecklerOPP	3	13	3	32	.313	0	0	2	6	3	0	0	0	13
9Hanley SchmidtOH	3	10	5	23	.217	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	1	11
18Adele MacerMB	3	10	3	31	.226	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10
11Cullen WinterMB	3	6	1	10	.500	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	3	9
2Breanna GinleyMB	3	5	1	9	.444	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5
10Anja MilosevicS	3	0	1	3	-.333	37	1	2	6	0	0	1	0.5	1.5
4Gabriella BurdierDS	3	0	0	1	.000	0	3	1	9	1	0	0	0	3
6Meg BerklandL/DS	3	0	0	0	–	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
1Annabelle DenommeL/DS	3	0	0	3	.000	3	0	6	9	1	0	0	0	0
17Danielle CaligiuriS	2	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
12Valeria TorresMB	1	0	0	1	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1.5	1.5
Team totals		44	14	113	.265	41	5	14	43	9	3	6	6	66

Starters listed first. BLK = BS + ½ BA. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Point differential by rally

Momentum

Longest run 6 SIENA · C CONN 4

Set 1

25-23

Longest run 4 SIENAC CONN 4

Set 2

25-23

Longest run 4 SIENAC CONN 4

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 6 SIENAC CONN 4

Bars above the line = Central Conn. St. leads, below = Siena leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Rotations

Siena

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	89%8/9	60%9/15
2	53%8/15	58%11/19
3	58%7/12	42%5/12
4	70%7/10	36%4/11
5	55%6/11	25%2/8
6	55%6/11	25%2/8
All	62%42/68	45%33/73

Central Conn. St.

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	44%8/18	30%3/10
2	53%8/15	27%3/11
3	54%7/13	43%6/14
4	100%6/6	46%6/13
5	60%6/10	45%5/11
6	45%5/11	33%3/9
All	55%40/73	38%26/68

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (3 of 3 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

141 rallies

Rally log

#	SIENA-C CONN	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	1-0	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.7
2	1-1	SIENA	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+1.7
3	1-2	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Adele Macer	+2.5
4	1-3	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+2.5
5	2-3	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.8
6	2-4	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.9
7	3-4	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.8
8	3-5	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+2.0
9	3-6	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Brianna Miller		+2.6
10	4-6	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.8
11	4-7	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.0
12	5-7	C CONN	SIENA×3	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.8
13	6-7	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Maggie Seymour, Doga Diraz	+2.6
14	7-7	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Olivia Keckler	+2.7
15	7-8	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.2
16	8-8	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Alara Doganyuz	+2.1
17	8-9	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.2
18	9-9	C CONN	SIENA×3	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+2.1
19	10-9	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Hanley Schmidt	+2.9
20	11-9	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Hanley Schmidt	+2.8
21	11-10	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Annabelle Denomme	+2.0
22	12-10	C CONN	SIENA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Maggie Seymour, Mary Claire Deacy	+2.1
23	13-10	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.7
24	13-11	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+1.8
25	14-11	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+2.0
26	15-11	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Brooke Malek	+2.3
27	15-12	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+1.5
28	15-13	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Team	+2.5
29	16-13	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Alara Doganyuz	+2.2
30	16-14	SIENA	C CONN×4	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.9
31	16-15	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Cullen Winter		+3.2
32	16-16	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Doga Diraz	blk Hanley Schmidt, Cullen Winter	+3.8
33	16-17	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Annabelle Denomme	+4.1
34	17-17	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Alara Doganyuz	+3.0
35	17-18	SIENA	C CONN	Attack err	Gabrielle Wire	blk Anja Milosevic, Cullen Winter	+3.3
36	18-18	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Alara Doganyuz	+3.2
37	18-19	SIENA	C CONN	Serve err	SIENA server		+3.6
38	18-20	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Gabrielle Wire	+4.8
39	19-20	C CONN	SIENA×4	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+3.1
40	20-20	SIENA	SIENA×4	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+5.0
41	21-20	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Breanna Ginley	blk Maggie Seymour, Mary Claire Deacy	+5.5
42	22-20	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+5.2
43	22-21	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+3.1
44	23-21	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+4.3
45	23-22	SIENA	C CONN	Attack err	Brianna Miller		+3.2
46	24-22	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+5.0
47	24-23	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+2.9
48	25-23	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+6.6
Set 2
1	0-1	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.6
2	1-1	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Maggie Seymour	set Abby Edwards	+1.5
3	2-1	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.1
4	2-2	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+1.6
5	2-3	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy		+2.2
6	3-3	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Maggie Seymour	set Anja Milosevic	+1.6
7	4-3	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Natalia Clifford	+2.2
8	4-4	SIENA	C CONN	Serve err	SIENA server		+1.6
9	5-4	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Alison Goldberg	set Abby Edwards	+1.6
10	5-5	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.7
11	6-5	C CONN	SIENA×3	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.7
12	7-5	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Olivia Keckler	+2.2
13	8-5	SIENA	SIENA×3	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Brooke Malek	+2.0
14	8-6	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+1.4
15	9-6	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Alara Doganyuz	+1.5
16	9-7	SIENA	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+1.5
17	9-8	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Adele Macer	set Annabelle Denomme	+2.2
18	9-9	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Doga Diraz		+2.5
19	10-9	C CONN	SIENA×4	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.9
20	11-9	SIENA	SIENA×4	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Abby Edwards	+2.5
21	12-9	SIENA	SIENA×4	Kill	Maggie Seymour		+2.3
22	13-9	SIENA	SIENA×4	Ace	SIENA server	aced Annabelle Denomme	+2.0
23	13-10	SIENA	C CONN	Serve err	SIENA server		+1.3
24	14-10	C CONN	SIENA×4	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.5
25	15-10	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Adele Macer		+1.6
26	16-10	SIENA	SIENA×4	Attack err	Adele Macer	blk Maggie Seymour	+1.2
27	17-10	SIENA	SIENA×4	Ace	SIENA server	aced Team	+0.9
28	17-11	SIENA	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.4
29	17-12	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+0.8
30	17-13	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter		+1.2
31	18-13	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.2
32	18-14	SIENA	C CONN×4	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+0.9
33	18-15	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy		+1.7
34	18-16	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	C CONN server	aced Natalia Clifford	+2.3
35	18-17	C CONN	C CONN×4	Ace	C CONN server	aced Natalia Clifford	+3.0
36	19-17	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.6
37	19-18	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.4
38	20-18	C CONN	SIENA	Attack err	Anja Milosevic	blk Alison Goldberg, Doga Diraz	+2.8
39	20-19	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.5
40	21-19	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+3.1
41	21-20	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.6
42	22-20	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Alara Doganyuz	+3.4
43	22-21	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+2.7
44	23-21	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+3.8
45	23-22	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+2.8
46	23-23	C CONN	C CONN	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy	blk Cullen Winter	+6.2
47	24-23	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+6.1
48	25-23	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+7.8
Set 3
1	1-0	C CONN	SIENA	Bad set	Annabelle Denomme		+0.9
2	2-0	SIENA	SIENA	Attack err	Adele Macer	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Maggie Seymour	+1.2
3	2-1	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.9
4	2-2	C CONN	C CONN	Ace	C CONN server	aced Natalia Clifford	+1.3
5	3-2	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Abby Edwards	+0.9
6	4-2	SIENA	SIENA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Alison Goldberg	+1.2
7	4-3	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Breanna Ginley	set Anja Milosevic	+0.9
8	5-3	C CONN	SIENA×3	Serve err	C CONN server		+0.9
9	6-3	SIENA	SIENA×3	Attack err	Cullen Winter	blk Alison Goldberg, Doga Diraz	+1.2
10	7-3	SIENA	SIENA×3	Ace	SIENA server	aced Olivia Keckler	+1.1
11	7-4	SIENA	C CONN	Serve err	SIENA server		+0.7
12	8-4	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Doga Diraz	set Alara Doganyuz	+0.8
13	8-5	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+0.7
14	9-5	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Alison Goldberg	set Alara Doganyuz	+0.8
15	9-6	SIENA	C CONN×4	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+0.7
16	9-7	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Doga Diraz	blk Hanley Schmidt, Valeria Torres	+1.2
17	9-8	C CONN	C CONN×4	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.3
18	9-9	C CONN	C CONN×4	Attack err	Doga Diraz	blk Valeria Torres	+1.5
19	10-9	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.1
20	11-9	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+1.5
21	11-10	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+1.1
22	12-10	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.1
23	13-10	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Brooke Malek	+1.4
24	13-11	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+1.0
25	14-11	C CONN	SIENA	Attack err	Olivia Keckler	blk Maggie Seymour, Mary Claire Deacy	+1.1
26	15-11	SIENA	SIENA	Ace	SIENA server	aced Team	+1.2
27	15-12	SIENA	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Annabelle Denomme	+0.8
28	15-13	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Mary Claire Deacy		+1.3
29	15-14	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Olivia Keckler	set Anja Milosevic	+1.6
30	16-14	C CONN	SIENA	Serve err	C CONN server		+1.3
31	17-14	SIENA	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Natalia Clifford	+1.6
32	17-15	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Adele Macer	set Anja Milosevic	+1.0
33	17-16	C CONN	C CONN	Bad set	Brianna Miller		+1.8
34	18-16	C CONN	SIENA	Kill	Brianna Miller	set Brooke Malek	+1.5
35	18-17	SIENA	C CONN×3	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+1.4
36	18-18	C CONN	C CONN×3	Kill	Hanley Schmidt	set Anja Milosevic	+2.2
37	18-19	C CONN	C CONN×3	Attack err	Doga Diraz	blk Cullen Winter	+2.5
38	19-19	C CONN	SIENA	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+1.8
39	19-20	SIENA	C CONN	Kill	Cullen Winter	set Anja Milosevic	+2.1
40	20-20	C CONN	SIENA×6	Kill	Gabrielle Wire	set Alara Doganyuz	+2.0
41	21-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Ace	SIENA server	aced Gabriella Burdier	+2.9
42	22-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.7
43	23-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Kill	Mary Claire Deacy	set Abby Edwards	+2.1
44	24-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt		+1.1
45	25-20	SIENA	SIENA×6	Attack err	Hanley Schmidt	blk Mary Claire Deacy, Maggie Seymour	+0.3

Score shown after each rally, Siena first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them. “Feed gap” rows fill points the NCAA play-by-play never logged.