Manhattan vs Merrimack Volleyball: Merrimack Wins 3-2

Final · 5 setsSat, Nov 7, 2026ESPN+

2:3

RallyIQ pre-match: Merrimack 55.9% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Nov 7, 12:55 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Merrimack beat visiting Manhattan 3-2 (25-18, 21-25, 25-19, 23-25, 15-11) on Sat, Nov 7, 2026. Merrimack's Mckenna Shotwell led with 16 kills, and Ella Maldonado added 21 digs.

Data through Nov 10, 6:25 PM CT · final Nov 7

Set	1	2	3	4	5	Sets
MANHAT	18	25	19	25	11	2
MERMCK	25	21	25	23	15	3

Match story · written from the play-by-play

Down to 12%, Merrimack came back.

The match turned 3 times; each line shows Merrimack's RallyIQ win probability at the start and end of the stretch. Merrimack went in as RallyIQ's 56% pick.

Turning point 1: Set 4 · Manhattan 0–1 Merrimack
Manhattan scored 6 straight to turn a 0–1 deficit into a 6–1 lead.
Merrimack 81% → 63%
Turning point 2: Set 5 · Manhattan 0–2 Merrimack
Down 0–2, Manhattan scored 7 straight to lead 7–2. The match swung to Manhattan.
Merrimack 68% → 12%
Turning point 3: Set 5 · Manhattan 7–2 Merrimack
The bottom for Merrimack, then 13 of the next 17 rallies and the set, 15–11, and with it the match.
Merrimack 12% → >99%

Merrimack above 50Manhattan belowMax swing 14.0%

ManhattanMerrimack

Sideout %: Manhattan 49.5·Merrimack 55.1
Break %: Manhattan 44.9·Merrimack 50.5
Hitting: Manhattan .128·Merrimack .228
Longest run: Manhattan 7·Merrimack 6

Tamilore Afolalu
14 kills on .423, 14.5 points; 5 of those kills came in the turning points.

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Merrimack above 50 · Manhattan below

Biggest swing: 14.0% to Manhattan — set 4, MANHAT 25-23 MERMCK. Mckenna Shotwell stuffed by Abby Morreale & Laura Hernandez. MERMCK win probability 66% → 52%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 42.5%57.5% MERMCK

Manhattan wins

3-0

9.6%

3-1

15.6%

3-2

17.3%

Merrimack wins

3-0

15.9%

3-1

21.9%

3-2

19.7%

MANHAT break %: 43.1% vs this opp
MERMCK break %: 44.6% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

01
Abby Morreale&Laura HernandezBlock+14.0%
Mckenna Shotwell stuffed by Abby Morreale & Laura Hernandez
Set 4 · MANHAT 25-23 MERMCK · MANHAT 34% → 48%
02
Tamilore AfolaluKill+13.7%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 5 · MANHAT 9-10 MERMCK · MERMCK 50% → 64%
03
Jocelyn HammerstrandKill+13.3%
Kill by Jocelyn Hammerstrand (set by Fabiola Betancourt)
Set 5 · MANHAT 9-11 MERMCK · MERMCK 64% → 77%
04
Sophia DeBonisKill+12.6%
Kill by Sophia DeBonis (set by Ori Briger)
Set 5 · MANHAT 9-9 MERMCK · MERMCK 38% → 50%
05
Helenn MontillaAttack error+11.6%
Attack error by Helenn Montilla
Set 5 · MANHAT 10-13 MERMCK · MERMCK 80% → 91%
06
Tamilore AfolaluKill+11.3%
Kill by Tamilore Afolalu (set by Sophia DeBonis)
Set 5 · MANHAT 10-12 MERMCK · MERMCK 68% → 80%
07
Katie PowersAttack error+10.6%
Attack error by Katie Powers
Set 5 · MANHAT 9-8 MERMCK · MERMCK 27% → 38%
08
Katie PowersKill+9.8%
Kill by Katie Powers (set by Ori Briger)
Set 4 · MANHAT 24-23 MERMCK · MANHAT 25% → 34%

Box score

Official NCAA box

Manhattanaway

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BS	BA	BLK	PTS
6Katie PowersOH	5	10	9	39	.026	2	7	1	20	3	0	1	0.5	17.5
11Abby MorrealeMB	5	8	3	17	.294	1	0	2	4	0	2	2	3	11
12Helenn MontillaMB	5	4	2	23	.087	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	2.5	6.5
10Ori BrigerS	5	0	1	2	-.500	24	1	0	8	0	0	0	0	1
5Lyla AuthMB	4	1	1	4	.000	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
16Mikalah CurranOH	1	5	2	11	.273	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	5
28Hanna KaczynskaOH	5	11	3	29	.276	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	12.5
88Laura HernandezMB	5	10	5	32	.156	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	1.5	11.5
8Emma FrancesconiOH	5	6	4	23	.087	2	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	6
4Emilia KuzniarS	5	0	1	5	-.200	20	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0
15Anna DuncanDS	5	0	0	1	.000	2	0	1	7	2	0	0	0	0
3Julia PflegerL/DS	5	0	0	1	.000	1	0	0	9	0	0	0	0	0
9Kaitlyn DoyleL/DS	4	0	0	1	.000	0	1	1	6	0	0	0	0	1
Team totals		55	31	188	.128	52	9	6	78	7	2	14	9	98

Merrimackhome

Player	S	K	E	TA	Hit%	AST	SA	SE	DIG	RE	BA	BLK	PTS
10Mckenna ShotwellOH	5	16	7	33	.273	2	1	0	13	3	1	0.5	17.5
8Jocelyn HammerstrandOPP	5	9	5	36	.111	0	0	0	3	0	4	2	11
13Mia IzzoMB	5	2	2	7	.000	0	3	1	3	0	6	3	8
1Naomi VajdaMB	5	2	1	8	.125	1	0	0	2	0	6	3	5
3Sophia DeBonisS	5	2	0	7	.286	24	2	2	14	0	0	0	4
6Fabiola BetancourtOH	3	5	2	20	.150	1	0	0	6	0	0	0	5
14Maiella Blandin	5	14	2	33	.364	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	17
19Elizabeth KenneyS	5	0	1	6	-.167	26	1	2	7	0	0	0	1
12Ella MaldonadoL/DS	5	0	0	4	.000	7	0	0	21	3	0	0	0
18Sienna Franks	5	0	0	0	–	1	0	0	11	2	0	0	0
5Maddy FennessyL/DS	4	0	0	0	–	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0
7Tamilore Afolalu	3	14	3	26	.423	0	0	0	3	0	1	0.5	14.5
Team totals		64	23	180	.228	62	7	6	85	9	24	12	109

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Manhattan vs Merrimack

Season series · Series tied 1-1

Fri, Sep 25, 2026Merrimack at Manhattan · Manhattan won 3-1Result →
Sat, Nov 7, 2026Manhattan at Merrimack · Merrimack won 3-2This match

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 7 MANHAT · MERMCK 6

Set 1

18-25

Longest run 5 MANHATMERMCK 5

Set 2

25-21

Longest run 4 MANHATMERMCK 4

Set 3

19-25

Longest run 4 MANHATMERMCK 4

Set 4

25-23

Longest run 6 MANHATMERMCK 4

Set 5

11-15

Longest run 7 MANHATMERMCK 6

Bars above the line = Merrimack leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%9/18	40%4/10
2	47%8/17	55%11/20
3	37%7/19	36%4/11
4	47%7/15	53%8/15
5	63%5/8	36%4/11
6	56%5/9	17%1/6
All	48%41/86	44%32/73

Merrimack

Slot	Sideout %	Break %
1	50%9/18	47%7/15
2	53%8/15	58%11/19
3	41%7/17	58%11/19
4	70%7/10	42%5/12
5	71%5/7	58%7/12
6	83%5/6	44%4/9
All	56%41/73	52%45/86

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 5 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

207 rallies

#	MANHAT-MERMCK	Srv	Point	End	Player	Setter / blockers / passer	WP Δ
Set 1
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+2.4
2	0-2	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Ace	Merrimack	aced Mikalah Curran	+2.4
3	0-3	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Katie Powers		+2.2
4	1-3	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Lyla Auth	set Ori Briger	+1.6
5	1-4	MANHAT	MERMCK	Attack err	Lyla Auth		+1.8
6	2-4	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Ori Briger	+1.7
7	2-5	MANHAT	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.8
8	2-6	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Ella Maldonado	+2.2
9	2-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.9
10	2-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.6
11	3-8	MERMCK	MANHAT	Serve err	Merrimack		+1.1
12	4-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.7
13	4-9	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.5
14	5-9	MERMCK	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Mikalah Curran		+1.3
15	6-9	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+2.0
16	7-9	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Blocked	Maiella Blandin	blk Katie Powers, Helenn Montilla	+2.4
17	7-10	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.0
18	7-11	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.4
19	8-11	MERMCK	MANHAT	Blocked	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska	+1.6
20	8-12	MANHAT	MERMCK×5	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Mia Izzo, Maiella Blandin	+1.9
21	8-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.1
22	8-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Sophia DeBonis	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.7
23	8-15	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Ace	Merrimack	aced Katie Powers	+1.2
24	8-16	MERMCK	MERMCK×5	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.9
25	9-16	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.4
26	9-17	MANHAT	MERMCK	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+0.6
27	9-18	MERMCK	MERMCK	Bad set	Abby Morreale		+0.5
28	10-18	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+0.2
29	10-19	MANHAT	MERMCK×3	Blocked	Mikalah Curran	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo	+0.3
30	10-20	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Ori Briger		+0.2
31	10-21	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
32	11-21	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Ori Briger	·
33	11-22	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Sophia DeBonis	+0.1
34	12-22	MERMCK	MANHAT×5	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	·
35	13-22	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	·
36	14-22	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Katie Powers	+0.1
37	15-22	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.1
38	16-22	MANHAT	MANHAT×5	Kill	Mikalah Curran	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.3
39	16-23	MANHAT	MERMCK	Blocked	Mikalah Curran	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+0.4
40	17-23	MERMCK	MANHAT	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.1
41	18-23	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Naomi Vajda		+0.3
42	18-24	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+0.5
43	18-25	MERMCK	MERMCK	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Maiella Blandin, Mia Izzo	+0.1
Set 2
1	0-1	MANHAT	MERMCK	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+1.7
2	0-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Mia Izzo	+2.2
3	1-2	MERMCK	MANHAT×4	Kill	Katie Powers	set Anna Duncan	+1.7
4	2-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Blocked	Mia Izzo	blk Abby Morreale	+2.3
5	3-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Ace	Manhattan	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+2.4
6	4-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+2.4
7	4-3	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.8
8	5-3	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+1.9
9	5-4	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Ella Maldonado	+1.8
10	5-5	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack	aced Anna Duncan	+2.5
11	6-5	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Emma Francesconi	+2.0
12	6-6	MANHAT	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.0
13	6-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.6
14	6-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+2.6
15	6-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+2.4
16	7-9	MERMCK	MANHAT	Serve err	Merrimack		+1.7
17	7-10	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.9
18	8-10	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.8
19	8-11	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.0
20	9-11	MERMCK	MANHAT×3	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+1.8
21	10-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+2.7
22	11-11	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ella Maldonado	+2.9
23	11-12	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+2.3
24	11-13	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack	aced Katie Powers	+3.0
25	12-13	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Abby Morreale	+2.2
26	13-13	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan		+3.2
27	13-14	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sienna Franks	+2.5
28	14-14	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Anna Duncan	+2.6
29	15-14	MANHAT	MANHAT	Ace	Manhattan	aced Ella Maldonado	+3.5
30	15-15	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.7
31	16-15	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+2.9
32	16-16	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Fabiola Betancourt	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.8
33	16-17	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Merrimack		+3.9
34	17-17	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+3.0
35	18-17	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Fabiola Betancourt	blk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska	+4.2
36	18-18	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.2
37	19-18	MERMCK	MANHAT	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+3.5
38	19-19	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.4
39	20-19	MERMCK	MANHAT	Serve err	Merrimack		+3.8
40	21-19	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+4.9
41	21-20	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.2
42	22-20	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emma Francesconi	+4.2
43	23-20	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+4.4
44	23-21	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+2.0
45	24-21	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Katie Powers	+3.5
46	25-21	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Fabiola Betancourt		+1.9
Set 3
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+3.2
2	1-1	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+2.5
3	1-2	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.5
4	1-3	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Abby Morreale		+3.2
5	2-3	MERMCK	MANHAT	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+2.4
6	2-4	MANHAT	MERMCK	Blocked	Emma Francesconi	blk Jocelyn Hammerstrand, Naomi Vajda	+2.5
7	3-4	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+2.5
8	3-5	MANHAT	MERMCK×3	Kill	Naomi Vajda	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.6
9	3-6	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.2
10	3-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.9
11	4-7	MERMCK	MANHAT	Blocked	Maiella Blandin	blk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska	+2.1
12	4-8	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.3
13	5-8	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.1
14	6-8	MANHAT	MANHAT	Bad set	Elizabeth Kenney		+3.1
15	6-9	MANHAT	MERMCK	Serve err	Anna Duncan		+2.6
16	7-9	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.5
17	7-10	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mia Izzo	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.7
18	8-10	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+2.5
19	8-11	MANHAT	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Laura Hernandez		+2.8
20	8-12	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Ace	Mia Izzo	aced Anna Duncan	+3.2
21	8-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+2.8
22	8-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Attack err	Emma Francesconi		+2.2
23	9-14	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+1.3
24	10-14	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Tamilore Afolalu	blk Laura Hernandez, Helenn Montilla	+2.2
25	10-15	MANHAT	MERMCK×4	Serve err	Kaitlyn Doyle		+2.2
26	10-16	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.2
27	10-17	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Blocked	Emma Francesconi	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+1.6
28	10-18	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Blocked	Laura Hernandez	blk Naomi Vajda, Tamilore Afolalu	+1.0
29	11-18	MERMCK	MANHAT×4	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+0.5
30	12-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Elizabeth Kenney		+0.9
31	13-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Julia Pfleger	+1.4
32	14-18	MANHAT	MANHAT×4	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+2.0
33	14-19	MANHAT	MERMCK	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+2.2
34	14-20	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Hanna Kaczynska		+1.9
35	15-20	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.9
36	15-21	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+1.3
37	16-21	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.7
38	16-22	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.2
39	17-22	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+0.5
40	18-22	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Abby Morreale, Laura Hernandez	+1.3
41	18-23	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.7
42	19-23	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+0.7
43	19-24	MANHAT	MERMCK	Serve err	Katie Powers		+1.3
44	19-25	MERMCK	MERMCK	Ace	Mia Izzo	aced Katie Powers	+0.4
Set 4
1	0-1	MANHAT	MERMCK	Attack err	Katie Powers		+2.3
2	1-1	MERMCK	MANHAT×6	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.4
3	2-1	MANHAT	MANHAT×6	Kill	Abby Morreale		+3.2
4	3-1	MANHAT	MANHAT×6	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+3.2
5	4-1	MANHAT	MANHAT×6	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+3.1
6	5-1	MANHAT	MANHAT×6	Attack err	Mckenna Shotwell		+3.0
7	6-1	MANHAT	MANHAT×6	Bad set	Sophia DeBonis		+2.8
8	6-2	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.8
9	6-3	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.7
10	7-3	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+2.4
11	7-4	MANHAT	MERMCK	Serve err	Abby Morreale		+2.1
12	8-4	MERMCK	MANHAT	Serve err	Merrimack		+2.4
13	9-4	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+2.9
14	9-5	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.9
15	10-5	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Ori Briger	+2.2
16	11-5	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers		+2.5
17	11-6	MANHAT	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+1.5
18	11-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.4
19	11-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Emilia Kuzniar		+2.9
20	12-8	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.6
21	12-9	MANHAT	MERMCK	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+2.3
22	13-9	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Emilia Kuzniar	+2.7
23	13-10	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Elizabeth Kenney	+2.3
24	14-10	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+2.8
25	15-10	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+3.0
26	15-11	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Sophia DeBonis	+1.8
27	16-11	MERMCK	MANHAT	Attack err	Tamilore Afolalu		+2.4
28	16-12	MANHAT	MERMCK×4	Serve err	Abby Morreale		+1.8
29	16-13	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Mckenna Shotwell	+3.0
30	16-14	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+3.7
31	16-15	MERMCK	MERMCK×4	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Naomi Vajda	+4.4
32	17-15	MERMCK	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Ori Briger	+3.9
33	18-15	MANHAT	MANHAT×3	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+4.7
34	19-15		MANHAT	NCAA feed gap1 point not loggedWhy? The NCAA play-by-play skipped these points: the score changed but no play was logged, so we know who won each point, not how. They count in the score, momentum and win probability, but no player is credited. Box-score stats come from the official box score and are unaffected.			+4.0
35	19-16	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+2.2
36	19-17	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Mckenna Shotwell	+3.9
37	20-17	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Hanna Kaczynska	set Emilia Kuzniar	+4.0
38	20-18	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+3.1
39	20-19	MERMCK	MERMCK	Blocked	Katie Powers	blk Maiella Blandin, Naomi Vajda	+5.3
40	21-19	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Helenn Montilla	set Emilia Kuzniar	+5.1
41	21-20	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+4.3
42	21-21	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Katie Powers		+7.2
43	22-21	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Emilia Kuzniar	+6.5
44	23-21	MANHAT	MANHAT	Kill	Laura Hernandez	set Ori Briger	+8.3
45	23-22	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+4.6
46	23-23	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Sophia DeBonis	+9.6
47	24-23	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Ori Briger	+9.8
48	25-23	MANHAT	MANHAT	Blocked	Mckenna Shotwell	blk Abby Morreale, Laura Hernandez	+14.0
Set 5
1	0-1	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Mckenna Shotwell	set Ella Maldonado	+8.4
2	0-2	MERMCK	MERMCK	Blocked	Laura Hernandez	blk Mckenna Shotwell, Mia Izzo	+8.2
3	1-2	MERMCK	MANHAT×7	Serve err	Merrimack		+6.1
4	2-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Ace	Katie Powers	aced Ella Maldonado	+8.7
5	3-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Ace	Katie Powers	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+9.2
6	4-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Ace	Katie Powers	aced Sienna Franks	+9.3
7	5-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Blocked	Mia Izzo	blk Abby Morreale	+8.8
8	6-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Ace	Katie Powers	aced Sienna Franks	+7.9
9	7-2	MANHAT	MANHAT×7	Ace	Katie Powers	aced Mckenna Shotwell	+6.5
10	7-3	MANHAT	MERMCK×3	Blocked	Laura Hernandez	blk Mia Izzo, Jocelyn Hammerstrand	+3.7
11	7-4	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+6.3
12	7-5	MERMCK	MERMCK×3	Attack err	Laura Hernandez		+8.0
13	8-5	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Abby Morreale	set Ori Briger	+7.7
14	9-5	MANHAT	MANHAT	Attack err	Jocelyn Hammerstrand		+8.4
15	9-6	MANHAT	MERMCK×6	Serve err	Lyla Auth		+4.7
16	9-7	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+8.3
17	9-8	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Attack err	Katie Powers		+10.6
18	9-9	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Sophia DeBonis	set Ori Briger	+12.6
19	9-10	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+13.7
20	9-11	MERMCK	MERMCK×6	Kill	Jocelyn Hammerstrand	set Fabiola Betancourt	+13.3
21	10-11	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Emma Francesconi	set Ori Briger	+8.7
22	10-12	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Sophia DeBonis	+11.3
23	10-13	MERMCK	MERMCK	Attack err	Helenn Montilla		+11.6
24	11-13	MERMCK	MANHAT	Kill	Katie Powers	set Emilia Kuzniar	+5.2
25	11-14	MANHAT	MERMCK	Kill	Tamilore Afolalu	set Elizabeth Kenney	+9.1
26	11-15	MERMCK	MERMCK	Kill	Maiella Blandin	set Elizabeth Kenney	+4.7

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).

Merrimack def. Manhattan 3–2

Down to 12%, Merrimack came back.