Manhattan def. Merrimack 3–1
Manhattan beat visiting Merrimack 3-1 (25-22, 20-25, 25-17, 25-21) on Fri, Sep 25, 2026. Manhattan's Hanna Kaczynska led with 13 kills.
Data through · final Sep 25
| Set | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Sets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERMCK | 22 | 25 | 17 | 21 | 1 |
| MANHAT | 25 | 20 | 25 | 25 | 3 |
Win probability
Biggest swing: 5.9% to Manhattan — set 1, MERMCK 21-23 MANHAT. Kill by Emma Francesconi (set by Jocelyn Hammerstrand). MANHAT win probability 66% → 71%.
Pre-match
Season fit · includes this match
Merrimack wins
Manhattan wins
- MERMCK break %
- 42.7% vs this opp
- MANHAT break %
- 44.8% vs this opp
Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.
Top plays
Largest win-probability swings
- 01Emma FrancesconiKill+5.9%
Kill by Emma Francesconi (set by Jocelyn Hammerstrand)
Set 1 · MERMCK 21-23 MANHAT · MANHAT 66% → 71%
- 02Sophia DeBonis&Kaitlyn OxceusBlock+5.4%
Katie Powers stuffed by Sophia DeBonis & Kaitlyn Oxceus
Set 1 · MERMCK 21-21 MANHAT · MERMCK 34% → 39%
- 03Hanna KaczynskaKill+4.8%
Kill by Hanna Kaczynska (set by Ori Briger)
Set 1 · MERMCK 21-22 MANHAT · MANHAT 61% → 66%
- 04Lyla Auth&Emilia KuzniarBlock+4.3%
Tamilore Afolalu stuffed by Lyla Auth & Emilia Kuzniar
Set 1 · MERMCK 18-20 MANHAT · MANHAT 64% → 69%
- 05ManhattanAce+4.1%
Manhattan ace on Jocelyn Hammerstrand
Set 1 · MERMCK 21-24 MANHAT · MANHAT 71% → 76%
- 06MerrimackAce+3.9%
Merrimack ace on Anna Duncan
Set 1 · MERMCK 17-17 MANHAT · MERMCK 35% → 39%
- 07Emilia KuzniarBlock+3.7%
Natalia Zelubowski stuffed by Emilia Kuzniar
Set 1 · MERMCK 19-21 MANHAT · MANHAT 66% → 69%
- 08Katie PowersKill+3.5%
Kill by Katie Powers (set by Emilia Kuzniar)
Set 1 · MERMCK 18-19 MANHAT · MANHAT 61% → 64%
Box score
Official NCAA box
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 13 | 4 | 41 | .220 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | |
| 4 | 13 | 5 | 41 | .195 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 13.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 0 | 14 | .429 | 31 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 10 | |
| 4 | 6 | 2 | 11 | .364 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 7.5 | |
| 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | .200 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 8 | 7 | 28 | .036 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 7 | .429 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -.500 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 50 | 19 | 150 | .207 | 47 | 9 | 14 | 68 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 85 |
| Player | S | K | E | TA | Hit% | AST | SA | SE | DIG | RE | BS | BA | BLK | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 7 | 1 | 13 | .462 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1.5 | 10.5 | |
| 4 | 6 | 7 | 26 | -.038 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | |
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | .200 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 4 | 13 | 3 | 27 | .370 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 14 | |
| 4 | 8 | 3 | 34 | .147 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 9.5 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 8 | 2 | 21 | .286 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 8.5 | |
| 2 | 6 | 1 | 10 | .500 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team totals | 54 | 20 | 154 | .221 | 49 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 9 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 95 |
Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.
Merrimack vs Manhattan
Season series · Manhattan leads 1-0
- Fri, Sep 25, 2026Merrimack at Manhattan · Manhattan won 3-1This match
- Sat, Nov 7, 2026Manhattan at MerrimackPreview →
Momentum
Point differential by rally
Set 1
22-25
Set 2
25-20
Set 3
17-25
Set 4
21-25
Bars above the line = Manhattan leads, below = Merrimack leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.
Rotations
Sideout and break % by rotation slot
Merrimack
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 71%10/14 | 18%2/11 |
| 2 | 67%10/15 | 52%11/21 |
| 3 | 43%10/23 | 33%5/15 |
| 4 | 56%9/16 | 31%4/13 |
| 5 | 50%9/18 | 18%2/11 |
| 6 | 88%7/8 | 40%6/15 |
| All | 59%55/94 | 35%30/86 |
Manhattan
| Slot | Sideout % | Break % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 67%10/15 | 27%3/11 |
| 2 | 59%10/17 | 33%5/15 |
| 3 | 63%10/16 | 50%10/20 |
| 4 | 69%9/13 | 44%8/18 |
| 5 | 69%9/13 | 50%9/18 |
| 6 | 67%8/12 | 33%4/12 |
| All | 65%56/86 | 41%39/94 |
Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.
Rally log
180 rallies
| # | MERMCK-MANHAT | Srv | Point | End | Player | Setter / blockers / passer | WP Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set 1 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Mikalah Curran | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.8 |
| 3 | 2-1 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.9 |
| 4 | 2-2 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.9 | |
| 5 | 3-2 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Avry Bryant | set Devon Lowe | +1.9 |
| 6 | 3-3 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.9 | |
| 7 | 3-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Ace | Manhattan | aced Natalia Zelubowski | +2.4 |
| 8 | 4-4 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Avry Bryant | set Natalia Zelubowski | +1.9 |
| 9 | 4-5 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.9 |
| 10 | 4-6 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Bad set | Devon Lowe | +2.4 | |
| 11 | 4-7 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Mikalah Curran | set Ori Briger | +2.3 |
| 12 | 5-7 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Avry Bryant | set Ella Maldonado | +1.7 |
| 13 | 5-8 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Attack err | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | +1.8 | |
| 14 | 6-8 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Kaitlyn Oxceus | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.7 |
| 15 | 6-9 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.9 |
| 16 | 7-9 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.8 |
| 17 | 8-9 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Ace | Merrimack | aced Anna Duncan | +2.6 |
| 18 | 8-10 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +2.1 | |
| 19 | 9-10 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.1 |
| 20 | 9-11 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Abby Morreale | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.2 |
| 21 | 9-12 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.6 |
| 22 | 9-13 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Lyla Auth | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.3 |
| 23 | 10-13 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Maddy Fennessy | +1.6 |
| 24 | 10-14 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.8 |
| 25 | 11-14 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Bad set | Ori Briger | +1.6 | |
| 26 | 11-15 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Attack err | Natalia Zelubowski | +1.9 | |
| 27 | 12-15 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Serve err | Manhattan | +1.6 | |
| 28 | 13-15 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Attack err | Hanna Kaczynska | +2.5 | |
| 29 | 13-16 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +2.3 | |
| 30 | 14-16 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Natalia Zelubowski | +2.0 |
| 31 | 14-17 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +2.4 | |
| 32 | 15-17 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.1 |
| 33 | 16-17 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Attack err | Katie Powers | +3.3 | |
| 34 | 17-17 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Ace | Merrimack | aced Anna Duncan | +3.9 |
| 35 | 17-18 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +3.3 | |
| 36 | 18-18 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Mia Izzo | set Sophia DeBonis | +3.3 |
| 37 | 18-19 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.5 |
| 38 | 18-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Blocked | Tamilore Afolalu | blk Lyla Auth, Emilia Kuzniar | +4.3 |
| 39 | 19-20 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Katie Powers | +3.0 | |
| 40 | 19-21 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Blocked | Natalia Zelubowski | blk Emilia Kuzniar | +3.7 |
| 41 | 20-21 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Sophia DeBonis | +3.1 |
| 42 | 21-21 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Blocked | Katie Powers | blk Sophia DeBonis, Kaitlyn Oxceus | +5.4 |
| 43 | 21-22 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +4.8 |
| 44 | 21-23 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Jocelyn Hammerstrand | +5.9 |
| 45 | 21-24 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Jocelyn Hammerstrand | +4.1 |
| 46 | 22-24 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Ella Maldonado | +1.3 |
| 47 | 22-25 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +3.0 | |
| Set 2 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Blocked | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | blk Emma Francesconi, Abby Morreale | +1.6 |
| 2 | 0-2 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Abby Morreale | +2.0 | |
| 3 | 1-2 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.5 |
| 4 | 2-2 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Ace | Merrimack | aced Kaitlyn Doyle | +2.1 |
| 5 | 2-3 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Abby Morreale | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.7 |
| 6 | 2-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.1 |
| 7 | 3-4 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Katie Powers | +1.6 | |
| 8 | 3-5 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Lyla Auth | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.7 |
| 9 | 4-5 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Devon Lowe | +1.6 |
| 10 | 4-6 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Blocked | Natalia Zelubowski | blk Hanna Kaczynska, Lyla Auth | +1.7 |
| 11 | 4-7 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Ori Briger | +2.1 |
| 12 | 5-7 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Devon Lowe | +1.5 |
| 13 | 5-8 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.6 |
| 14 | 6-8 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Devon Lowe | +1.5 |
| 15 | 7-8 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Devon Lowe | +2.2 |
| 16 | 7-9 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.8 |
| 17 | 7-10 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.2 |
| 18 | 8-10 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.6 |
| 19 | 8-11 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.8 | |
| 20 | 9-11 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.6 |
| 21 | 10-11 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.4 |
| 22 | 11-11 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.7 |
| 23 | 11-12 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.2 |
| 24 | 12-12 | MANHAT | MERMCK×4 | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.2 |
| 25 | 13-12 | MERMCK | MERMCK×4 | Attack err | Lyla Auth | +3.0 | |
| 26 | 14-12 | MERMCK | MERMCK×4 | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +3.1 |
| 27 | 15-12 | MERMCK | MERMCK×4 | Attack err | Lyla Auth | +3.0 | |
| 28 | 15-13 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Attack err | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | +2.0 | |
| 29 | 16-13 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.4 |
| 30 | 17-13 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Ace | Merrimack | aced Anna Duncan | +2.7 |
| 31 | 17-14 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.7 | |
| 32 | 18-14 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Blocked | Emma Francesconi | blk Mia Izzo, Sophia DeBonis | +2.2 |
| 33 | 18-15 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.7 |
| 34 | 18-16 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +2.7 |
| 35 | 19-16 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.7 |
| 36 | 19-17 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Attack err | Natalia Zelubowski | +2.2 | |
| 37 | 20-17 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Ella Maldonado | +2.9 |
| 38 | 20-18 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.2 |
| 39 | 21-18 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Katie Powers | +3.0 | |
| 40 | 22-18 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Attack err | Katie Powers | +2.9 | |
| 41 | 22-19 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.3 | |
| 42 | 23-19 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Serve err | Manhattan | +2.2 | |
| 43 | 24-19 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Attack err | Katie Powers | +1.4 | |
| 44 | 24-20 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Katie Powers | set Emilia Kuzniar | +0.3 |
| 45 | 25-20 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +0.7 |
| Set 3 | |||||||
| 1 | 0-1 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.1 |
| 2 | 1-1 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.5 |
| 3 | 2-1 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Attack err | Abby Morreale | +3.3 | |
| 4 | 2-2 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Abby Morreale | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.5 |
| 5 | 2-3 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Abby Morreale | +3.2 | |
| 6 | 2-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Tamilore Afolalu | +3.1 |
| 7 | 3-4 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.4 |
| 8 | 3-5 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.5 |
| 9 | 3-6 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.0 |
| 10 | 4-6 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Devon Lowe | +2.2 |
| 11 | 4-7 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Emilia Kuzniar | set Anna Duncan | +2.4 |
| 12 | 4-8 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Ella Maldonado | +2.8 |
| 13 | 4-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Natalia Zelubowski | +2.4 | |
| 14 | 5-9 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Mia Izzo | set Devon Lowe | +1.7 |
| 15 | 5-10 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +1.9 |
| 16 | 5-11 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Katie Powers | +2.0 |
| 17 | 6-11 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Serve err | Manhattan | +1.3 | |
| 18 | 6-12 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Ori Briger | +1.6 |
| 19 | 7-12 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.3 |
| 20 | 8-12 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Blocked | Hanna Kaczynska | blk Tamilore Afolalu, Kaitlyn Oxceus | +2.1 |
| 21 | 8-13 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +2.0 | |
| 22 | 9-13 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.7 |
| 23 | 9-14 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.0 |
| 24 | 9-15 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Mia Izzo | +2.0 | |
| 25 | 10-15 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.2 |
| 26 | 10-16 | MERMCK | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.5 |
| 27 | 10-17 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Blocked | Tamilore Afolalu | blk Emilia Kuzniar, Helenn Montilla | +1.4 |
| 28 | 10-18 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Blocked | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | blk Abby Morreale, Karsyn Harris | +0.9 |
| 29 | 10-19 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +0.5 |
| 30 | 10-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Ace | Manhattan | aced Maddy Fennessy | +0.3 |
| 31 | 11-20 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Emilia Kuzniar | +0.1 | |
| 32 | 12-20 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Attack err | Karsyn Harris | +0.2 | |
| 33 | 12-21 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +0.3 |
| 34 | 13-21 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Sophia DeBonis | +0.1 |
| 35 | 13-22 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Ori Briger | +0.2 |
| 36 | 14-22 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Serve err | Manhattan | +0.1 | |
| 37 | 15-22 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Attack err | Emma Francesconi | +0.2 | |
| 38 | 16-22 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Ace | Merrimack | aced Hanna Kaczynska | +0.3 |
| 39 | 16-23 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +0.5 | |
| 40 | 17-23 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +0.2 |
| 41 | 17-24 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +0.3 |
| 42 | 17-25 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Abby Morreale | set Emilia Kuzniar | +0.1 |
| Set 4 | |||||||
| 1 | 1-0 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.9 |
| 2 | 1-1 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Abby Morreale | set Emilia Kuzniar | +2.2 |
| 3 | 2-1 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.4 |
| 4 | 3-1 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Ace | Merrimack | aced Anna Duncan | +3.1 |
| 5 | 4-1 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Mia Izzo | +3.1 | |
| 6 | 4-2 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +2.2 |
| 7 | 5-2 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Serve err | Manhattan | +2.4 | |
| 8 | 5-3 | MERMCK | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +2.2 |
| 9 | 5-4 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Abby Morreale | +3.1 |
| 10 | 5-5 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Kill | Hanna Kaczynska | set Ori Briger | +3.2 |
| 11 | 5-6 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Attack err | Tamilore Afolalu | +3.2 | |
| 12 | 5-7 | MANHAT | MANHAT×5 | Ace | Manhattan | +3.1 | |
| 13 | 6-7 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Mia Izzo | set Sophia DeBonis | +2.4 |
| 14 | 6-8 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Emma Francesconi | +2.5 |
| 15 | 6-9 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Emilia Kuzniar | +3.0 |
| 16 | 6-10 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Mia Izzo | +2.7 | |
| 17 | 7-10 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Natalia Zelubowski | set Ella Maldonado | +1.9 |
| 18 | 7-11 | MERMCK | MANHAT×3 | Kill | Emilia Kuzniar | set Kaitlyn Doyle | +2.1 |
| 19 | 7-12 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Attack err | Natalia Zelubowski | +2.3 | |
| 20 | 7-13 | MANHAT | MANHAT×3 | Blocked | Natalia Zelubowski | blk Helenn Montilla, Emilia Kuzniar | +1.9 |
| 21 | 8-13 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Fabiola Betancourt | +1.2 |
| 22 | 8-14 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.4 |
| 23 | 9-14 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Emma Francesconi | +1.1 | |
| 24 | 9-15 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.4 |
| 25 | 9-16 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Ace | Manhattan | aced Tamilore Afolalu | +1.3 |
| 26 | 10-16 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Attack err | Karsyn Harris | +0.7 | |
| 27 | 11-16 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Blocked | Hanna Kaczynska | blk Mia Izzo | +1.3 |
| 28 | 11-17 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.4 | |
| 29 | 11-18 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Blocked | Tamilore Afolalu | blk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale | +1.2 |
| 30 | 12-18 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Mia Izzo | set Sophia DeBonis | +0.6 |
| 31 | 13-18 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Ace | Merrimack | aced Katie Powers | +1.2 |
| 32 | 13-19 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Attack err | Tamilore Afolalu | +1.3 | |
| 33 | 13-20 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Emma Francesconi | set Ori Briger | +1.0 |
| 34 | 14-20 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Tamilore Afolalu | set Sophia DeBonis | +0.5 |
| 35 | 15-20 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Mia Izzo | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.0 |
| 36 | 16-20 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Attack err | Helenn Montilla | +1.5 | |
| 37 | 16-21 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Serve err | Merrimack | +1.7 | |
| 38 | 16-22 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Attack err | Fabiola Betancourt | +1.3 | |
| 39 | 17-22 | MANHAT | MERMCK | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Ella Maldonado | +0.5 |
| 40 | 18-22 | MERMCK | MERMCK | Kill | Jocelyn Hammerstrand | set Sophia DeBonis | +1.1 |
| 41 | 18-23 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Helenn Montilla | set Emilia Kuzniar | +1.4 |
| 42 | 18-24 | MANHAT | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Emilia Kuzniar | +0.8 |
| 43 | 19-24 | MANHAT | MERMCK×3 | Kill | Sophia DeBonis | set Fabiola Betancourt | +0.1 |
| 44 | 20-24 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Ace | Merrimack | aced Julia Pfleger | +0.4 |
| 45 | 21-24 | MERMCK | MERMCK×3 | Ace | Merrimack | aced Kaitlyn Doyle | +0.9 |
| 46 | 21-25 | MERMCK | MANHAT | Kill | Karsyn Harris | set Julia Pfleger | +1.6 |
Score shown after each rally, Merrimack first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).