Final · 4 setsFri, Oct 2, 2026Watch on ESPN+

Siena def. Manhattan 3–1

RallyIQ pre-match: Siena 85.1% · favorite wonLocked before first serve (Oct 2, 4:56 PM CT). The Pre-match panel below is a season fit that includes this match.

Siena beat visiting Manhattan 3-1 (25-19, 25-15, 20-25, 25-22) on Fri, Oct 2, 2026. Siena's Mary Claire Deacy led with 21 kills, and Brooke Malek added 25 digs.

Data through · final Oct 2

Set1234Sets
MANHAT191525221
SIENA252520253

Match story · written from the play-by-play

An 8–0 run in the second set broke it open for Siena.

The biggest single-rally swing was 3.8 points, and Manhattan's high was 16% in Set 1. The numbers below are where it was won. Pre-match, RallyIQ had Siena at 85%.

ManhattanSiena
  • Break %+9.8 pts
    31.741.5

    On serve: 39/94 against 26/82 (Manhattan sideout 58.5%).

  • Hitting+.114
    .176.290

    63 kills, 18 errors vs 51 kills, 23 errors.

  • Longest run+4
    48

    Siena scored 8 straight in the second set to open the set 8–0. The set finished 25–15.

Siena above 50Manhattan belowMax swing 3.8%

ManhattanSiena

Aces
Manhattan 3·Siena 6
Serve err
Manhattan 2·Siena 8
Blocks
Manhattan 9·Siena 90 BS · 18 BA vs 3 BS · 12 BA
Digs
Manhattan 63·Siena 78

Win probability

RallyIQ model · strengths locked at first serve

Siena above 50 · Manhattan below
SET 1SET 2SET 3SET 410050100+3.8% SIENArally 176 · set 4

Biggest swing: 3.8% to Siena — set 4, MANHAT 22-24 SIENA. Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards). SIENA win probability 94% → 97%.

Pre-match

Season fit · includes this match

MANHAT 12.2%87.8% SIENA

Manhattan wins

3-0
1.7%
3-1
3.8%
3-2
6.7%

Siena wins

3-0
40.9%
3-1
31.6%
3-2
15.3%
MANHAT break %
37.6% vs this opp
SIENA break %
46.5% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season, including this match. Gold = actual result.

Top plays

Largest win-probability swings

  1. 01

    Kill by Brianna Miller (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-24 SIENA · SIENA 94% → 97%

  2. 02

    Kill by Mary Claire Deacy (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 21-23 SIENA · SIENA 93% → 96%

  3. 03
    Karsyn HarrisKill+3.1%

    Kill by Karsyn Harris (set by Ori Briger)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 20-21 SIENA · MANHAT 4% → 8%

  4. 04
    ManhattanService error+2.9%

    Manhattan service error

    Set 4 · MANHAT 20-22 SIENA · SIENA 92% → 95%

  5. 05
    ManhattanAce+2.7%

    Manhattan ace on Brianna Miller

    Set 4 · MANHAT 17-18 SIENA · MANHAT 5% → 8%

  6. 06
    Hanna KaczynskaAttack error+2.6%

    Attack error by Hanna Kaczynska

    Set 4 · MANHAT 18-21 SIENA · SIENA 94% → 97%

  7. 07

    Kill by Gabrielle Wire (set by Abby Edwards)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-25 SIENA · SIENA 97% → 100%

  8. 08
    Karsyn HarrisKill+2.5%

    Kill by Karsyn Harris (set by Abby Morreale)

    Set 4 · MANHAT 22-23 SIENA · MANHAT 4% → 6%

Box score

Official NCAA box

PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
415330.400101120010.515.5
46523.04301020052.59.5
41111.000000000634
4214.2502000500002
33014.21410110031.54.5
33423-.043000320214
4001.000180070010.50.5
4000–100310000
4000–5001410000
36218.222000700006
214324.4580109000015
1125-.200000010001
1000–010000001
1026-.333000000000
Team totals5123159.1764632636018981
Sienahome
PlayerSKETAHit%ASTSASEDIGREBSBABLKPTS
421749.28600123014324
420239.46200020010.520.5
410633.12100110200010
46221.19000010233.59.5
4217.143534280010.56.5
4405.80000000031.55.5
4000–7112500001
4000–012400001
4001.000101500000
Team totals6318155.2906168783312995

Starters listed first. BLK is the NCAA total: a solo counts 1, a block assist ½. Recaps and press releases usually quote solos + assists instead, so the same night can be reported as a bigger, whole number. The box score is the source for every counting stat on this page.

Manhattan vs Siena

Season series · Siena leads 2-0

Momentum

Point differential by rally

Longest run 4 MANHAT · SIENA 8

Set 1

19-25

Longest run 4 MANHATSIENA 4

Set 2

15-25

Longest run 4 MANHATSIENA 8

Set 3

25-20

Longest run 3 MANHATSIENA 2

Set 4

22-25

Longest run 2 MANHATSIENA 3

Bars above the line = Siena leads, below = Manhattan leads. Bright bars are points inside a run of 3+.

Rotations

Sideout and break % by rotation slot

Manhattan

SlotSideout %Break %
1
55%11/20
25%3/12
2
63%10/16
21%3/14
3
77%10/13
23%3/13
4
47%9/19
38%6/16
5
53%8/15
44%7/16
6
64%7/11
36%4/11
All
59%55/94
32%26/82

Siena

SlotSideout %Break %
1
69%11/16
55%11/20
2
85%11/13
27%4/15
3
91%10/11
33%5/15
4
47%9/19
53%10/19
5
62%8/13
27%3/11
6
70%7/10
43%6/14
All
68%56/82
41%39/94

Slot = rotations since the start of the set (slot 1 is the lineup a team opened the set in), not a fixed player alignment. Only clean sets count (4 of 4 here): sets where the NCAA play-by-play has gaps or score corrections are left out because the rotation can't be tracked through them.

Rally log

176 rallies

#MANHAT-SIENASrvPointEndPlayerSetter / blockers / passerWP Δ
Set 1
10-1MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.0
20-2SIENASIENAAttack errHanna Kaczynska+1.2
31-2SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+0.9
41-3MANHATSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.9
52-3SIENAMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+1.0
62-4MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.9
72-5SIENASIENAAttack errKatie Powers+1.1
83-5SIENAMANHATKillKatie Powersset Ori Briger+0.8
93-6MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.9
104-6SIENAMANHATKillKatie Powersset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
115-6MANHATMANHATAttack errMaggie Seymour+1.4
125-7MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.0
135-8SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.2
146-8SIENAMANHATKillMikalah Curranset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
156-9MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.9
166-10SIENASIENAAttack errMikalah Curran+1.1
177-10SIENAMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Emilia Kuzniar+0.7
187-11MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.8
198-11SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.8
208-12MANHATSIENAAttack errKatie Powers+0.8
219-12SIENAMANHATKillHelenn Montillaset Ori Briger+0.8
229-13MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.8
2310-13SIENAMANHAT×4Serve errSiena+0.8
2411-13MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errMary Claire Deacy+1.4
2512-13MANHATMANHAT×4AceManhattanaced Brianna Miller+1.7
2613-13MANHATMANHAT×4BlockedMaggie Seymourblk Katie Powers, Abby Morreale+2.1
2713-14MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.6
2814-14SIENAMANHATBlockedGabrielle Wireblk Abby Morreale, Emilia Kuzniar+1.7
2914-15MANHATSIENA×4KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.6
3014-16SIENASIENA×4Attack errMikalah Curran+2.0
3114-17SIENASIENA×4KillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.7
3214-18SIENASIENA×4AceSienaaced Mikalah Curran+1.3
3315-18SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.8
3415-19MANHATSIENAAttack errHanna Kaczynska+1.0
3515-20SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.9
3616-20SIENAMANHAT×3KillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.4
3717-20MANHATMANHAT×3KillEmma Francesconiset Julia Pfleger+1.0
3818-20MANHATMANHAT×3KillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+1.6
3918-21MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+1.5
4019-21SIENAMANHATBlockedBrianna Millerblk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska+1.2
4119-22MANHATSIENA×4KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.6
4219-23SIENASIENA×4AceSiena+1.3
4319-24SIENASIENA×4Attack errHanna Kaczynska+0.5
4419-25SIENASIENA×4KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.1
Set 2
10-1SIENASIENA×8AceSienaaced Katie Powers+1.0
20-2SIENASIENA×8BlockedEmma Francesconiblk Mary Claire Deacy, Alison Goldberg+0.9
30-3SIENASIENA×8AceSienaaced Anna Duncan+0.8
40-4SIENASIENA×8KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.7
50-5SIENASIENA×8AceSienaaced Katie Powers+0.5
60-6SIENASIENA×8AceSienaaced Julia Pfleger+0.4
70-7SIENASIENA×8BlockedHelenn Montillablk Mary Claire Deacy+0.3
80-8SIENASIENA×8KillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.2
91-8SIENAMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+0.2
102-8MANHATMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+0.3
113-8MANHATMANHAT×3KillHanna Kaczynska+0.4
123-9MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.3
134-9SIENAMANHATKillOri Brigerset Julia Pfleger+0.3
144-10MANHATSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.3
154-11SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.3
165-11SIENAMANHATBlockedBrianna Millerblk Hanna Kaczynska, Abby Morreale+0.2
175-12MANHATSIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.2
185-13SIENASIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.2
195-14SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.1
206-14SIENAMANHAT×4KillMargaret OBrienset Emilia Kuzniar+0.1
217-14MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errMary Claire Deacy+0.2
228-14MANHATMANHAT×4Attack errBrianna Miller+0.2
239-14MANHATMANHAT×4KillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.4
249-15MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.3
2510-15SIENAMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+0.3
2611-15MANHATMANHATAttack errBrianna Miller+0.5
2711-16MANHATSIENABlockedMargaret OBrienblk Maggie Seymour+0.5
2811-17SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
2912-17SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.2
3012-18MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.3
3113-18SIENAMANHATBlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla+0.2
3213-19MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.3
3314-19SIENAMANHATAttack errMary Claire Deacy+0.2
3414-20MANHATSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.3
3514-21SIENASIENAAttack errKatie Powers+0.2
3615-21SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.1
3715-22MANHATSIENA×4BlockedKatie Powersblk Mary Claire Deacy, Maggie Seymour+0.1
3815-23SIENASIENA×4KillMaggie Seymour+0.1
3915-24SIENASIENA×4KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards·
4015-25SIENASIENA×4KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards·
Set 3
10-1MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
21-1SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Julia Pfleger+0.4
31-2MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.4
42-2SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.4
52-3MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Brooke Malek+0.4
63-3SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.4
74-3MANHATMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Emilia Kuzniar+0.6
84-4MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Autumn Willmott+0.4
94-5SIENASIENAAttack errMargaret OBrien+0.5
105-5SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.4
115-6MANHATSIENAAttack errEmma Francesconi+0.4
126-6SIENAMANHATAttack errAbby Edwards+0.4
136-7MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
147-7SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+0.5
157-8MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.4
168-8SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+0.5
178-9MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Maggie Seymour+0.5
189-9SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.5
1910-9MANHATMANHATAttack errMary Claire Deacy+0.7
2010-10MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.5
2111-10SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.6
2211-11MANHATSIENABlockedLaura Hernandezblk Maggie Seymour+0.5
2312-11SIENAMANHAT×3Attack errGabrielle Wire+0.6
2413-11MANHATMANHAT×3AceManhattan+0.9
2514-11MANHATMANHAT×3KillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.9
2614-12MANHATSIENAAttack errKarsyn Harris+0.6
2714-13SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+0.8
2815-13SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+0.7
2915-14MANHATSIENAServe errManhattan+0.6
3015-15SIENASIENABlockedEmma Francesconiblk Alison Goldberg, Mary Claire Deacy+0.9
3116-15SIENAMANHATKillMargaret OBrienset Emilia Kuzniar+0.8
3216-16MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.7
3317-16SIENAMANHATBlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Helenn Montilla, Hanna Kaczynska+0.8
3417-17MANHATSIENAKillAlison Goldbergset Abby Edwards+0.7
3518-17SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.9
3618-18MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+0.8
3719-18SIENAMANHAT×3KillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+0.9
3820-18MANHATMANHAT×3Attack errBrianna Miller+1.3
3921-18MANHATMANHAT×3KillMargaret OBrienset Abby Edwards+1.3
4021-19MANHATSIENABlockedLaura Hernandezblk Maggie Seymour+0.7
4122-19SIENAMANHATKillMargaret OBrienset Abby Edwards+1.1
4222-20MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+0.7
4323-20SIENAMANHAT×3KillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.1
4424-20MANHATMANHAT×3KillMargaret OBrienset Anna Duncan+0.9
4525-20MANHATMANHAT×3KillMargaret OBrienset Emma Francesconi+0.3
Set 4
11-0SIENAMANHATBlockedMary Claire Deacyblk Helenn Montilla, Emma Francesconi+1.5
22-0MANHATMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Ori Briger+2.1
32-1MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.4
42-2SIENASIENABlockedHanna Kaczynskablk Alison Goldberg, Mary Claire Deacy+1.9
53-2SIENAMANHATKillOri Brigerset Julia Pfleger+1.6
63-3MANHATSIENAAttack errKarsyn Harris+1.4
74-3SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+1.6
84-4MANHATSIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.5
94-5SIENASIENA×3BlockedKarsyn Harrisblk Abby Edwards, Maggie Seymour+1.9
104-6SIENASIENA×3KillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.7
115-6SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Abby Edwards+1.3
126-6MANHATMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Emilia Kuzniar+2.0
136-7MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.5
146-8SIENASIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+1.8
157-8SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Emilia Kuzniar+1.4
167-9MANHATSIENAKillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.4
178-9SIENAMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+1.5
188-10MANHATSIENAServe errManhattan+1.4
199-10SIENAMANHATServe errSiena+1.5
209-11MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Brooke Malek+1.5
219-12SIENASIENAAttack errOri Briger+1.8
2210-12SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Julia Pfleger+1.3
2311-12MANHATMANHATBlockedBrianna Millerblk Hanna Kaczynska, Helenn Montilla+2.1
2411-13MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+1.6
2512-13SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+1.7
2612-14MANHATSIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.7
2712-15SIENASIENA×3KillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+2.0
2812-16SIENASIENA×3KillMaggie Seymourset Abby Edwards+1.6
2913-16SIENAMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+1.0
3013-17MANHATSIENAKillAbby Edwards+1.2
3114-17SIENAMANHATKillAbby Morrealeset Emilia Kuzniar+1.0
3215-17MANHATMANHATBad setAbby Edwards+1.9
3315-18MANHATSIENAKillAbby Edwardsset Brooke Malek+1.6
3416-18SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+1.5
3517-18MANHATMANHATAceManhattanaced Brianna Miller+2.7
3617-19MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.2
3718-19SIENAMANHATKillEmma Francesconiset Emilia Kuzniar+2.2
3818-20MANHATSIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.4
3918-21SIENASIENAAttack errHanna Kaczynska+2.6
4019-21SIENAMANHATKillHanna Kaczynskaset Ori Briger+1.5
4120-21MANHATMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+3.1
4220-22MANHATSIENAServe errManhattan+2.9
4321-22SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Ori Briger+2.5
4421-23MANHATSIENAKillMary Claire Deacyset Abby Edwards+3.3
4522-23SIENAMANHATKillKarsyn Harrisset Abby Morreale+2.5
4622-24MANHATSIENAKillBrianna Millerset Abby Edwards+3.8
4722-25SIENASIENAKillGabrielle Wireset Abby Edwards+2.5

Score shown after each rally, Manhattan first. WP Δ = match win-probability points gained, colored by the team that gained them.“NCAA feed gap” rows mark points the NCAA play-by-play never logged (tap Why? for details).