UC Santa Barbara vs UC Riverside Prediction

ScheduledSat, Nov 21, 2026ESPN+

–:–

UC Santa Barbara (12-11) at UC Riverside (4-19), Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives UC Santa Barbara a 95% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, UC Santa Barbara won 3-0 on Oct 16.

Data through Nov 4, 3:10 PM CT

Match prediction

UCSB 94.5%5.5% UC RIV

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0

54.0%

3-1

30.1%

3-2

10.4%

UC Riverside wins

3-0

0.6%

3-1

1.6%

3-2

3.3%

UCSB break %: 49.0% vs this opp
UC RIV break %: 36.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.