Sacramento State vs UC Santa Barbara Prediction

ScheduledFri, Nov 13, 2026ESPN+

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Sacramento St. (12-11) at UC Santa Barbara (12-11), Fri, Nov 13, 2026, 9:00 PM CT on ESPN+. RallyIQ gives UC Santa Barbara a 64% chance to win. In their only meeting this season, UC Santa Barbara won 3-1 on Oct 3.

Data through Nov 4, 3:15 PM CT

Match prediction

SAC ST 35.6%64.4% UCSB

Sacramento St. wins

3-0

7.3%

3-1

12.8%

3-2

15.5%

UC Santa Barbara wins

3-0

19.6%

3-1

24.7%

3-2

20.0%

SAC ST break %: 41.0% vs this opp
UCSB break %: 43.8% vs this opp

Exact Markov model on each team's RallyIQ serve and receive strength, adjusted for schedule and applied to this matchup (D1 average break % 42.5%). Ratings use the whole season so far.

Once the first serve goes up, this becomes a live win-probability chart that updates point by point.